CO SGC Space Research Symposium: Technologies for Tomorrow NEXT GENERATION SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS Next Generation Satellite Communications 2002 Colorado Space Grant Consortium's Space Research Symposium: Technologies for Tomorrow University of Colorado at Boulder 6 April 2002 Dr. James R. Stuart 1082 W. Alder Street, Louisville, CO 80027-1046 USA tel: +1 (303) 666-0662, fax: +1 (303) 666-0388, email: [email protected] Technology + Insight = Breakthrough Agenda l Converging Revolutions l Key Satellite Communications Drivers and Enabling Technologies • Business Driven Pulls and Technology Development Pushes l Next Generation WINNING Satellite Communications Systems • GSO Evolution, LEO/MEO Evolution, Stratospheric Platforms • Hybrid Interconnected Networks, ‘3-D’ Constellations’ • Clusters, Virtual Satellites and Revolutionary ThinSats l Future Trends and Next Big Things J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 1 Converging Revolutions in Communications and Networks l Wireless Communications Boom - Global Demand Explosion • All Types (e.g., Monitoring, Tracking, Paging, Cellular, PCS, DARS, Internet, DTV, Broadband, etc.) l Network Booms - Hierarchical Centralized Mainframes - To Individual, Distributed PC’s - To Interconnected, Networked PC’s - To Hybrid, Interconnected, Interoperable Networks • e.g., Intranet and Internet Explosions - Metcalf’s Law: Value of a network grows with the square of number of participants l New Satellite Communication Networks - Hierarchical Centralized GSO’s - To Individual, Distributed Non-GSO’s (NGSO’s) - To Interconnected, Networked NGSO’s (and GSO’s) - To Hybrid, Interconnected, Interoperable Networks • GSO’s, MEO’s, LEO’s, Stratospheric Platforms, Terrestrial0 J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 2 Dr. James R. Stuart Page ‹#› CO SGC Space Research Symposium: Technologies for Tomorrow NEXT GENERATION SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS Spectrum is Scarce and Precious l Licensed spectrum is critical development path • Clamor for more ‘Little’ and ‘Big’ LEO spectrum • Clamor for Ka-band GSO slots • Move to ever higher bands (V-band) l FCC auctions - spectrum is scarce and precious • MCI bid of 682M$ for USA DBS slot (110°W) l New entrants using new spectrum sharing methods • SDMA, spread spectrum, UWB, etc. • Skybridge, KITCOMM, etc. • Motient, ICO, etc (ATC, terrestrial spectrum use request) l Must maximize revenues for fixed spectrum - maximize MHz/km2 - Frequency reuse dominates • Smaller spots (cells) and higher power satellites l More Bandwidth is not enough ! J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 3 Global Interconnectivity Alternatives Source: Daedalian Technologies, Ltd. J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 4 Dr. James R. Stuart Page ‹#› CO SGC Space Research Symposium: Technologies for Tomorrow NEXT GENERATION SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS Apertures Rule ! l It’s all photon processing - Solar to RF - RF to RF - Multi-spectral to RF l Market competition drives larger apertures - Smaller spots (cells) = larger antennas - Higher power satellites = larger solar arrays - Already: >12 m diam. ant., >18 KW EOL GSO’s • 20-20, A2100AXX, BS702 • Eurostar 3000, Spacebus 4000, ETS, Alphabus, etc. l Larger apertures ‘pull’ other satellite technologies/designs - Flexible bodies, low thrust, energy storage, mechanisms, etc. - Distributed apertures, inter-satellite LAN/WAN’s, timing, etc. J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 5 Boeing Deployable 40’ Antenna on Thuraya-1 Source: Space News, Oct. 2000 J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 6 Dr. James R. Stuart Page ‹#› CO SGC Space Research Symposium: Technologies for Tomorrow NEXT GENERATION SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS Largest Antennas So Far on ETS-8 Source: Space News, 2000 J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 7 ACeS’ Garuda-1 Current Spot Beam Coverage Source: Pasifik Satelit Nusantara, 2001 J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 8 Dr. James R. Stuart Page ‹#› CO SGC Space Research Symposium: Technologies for Tomorrow NEXT GENERATION SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS Moore’s Law • Performance/price ratio doubles every 18 months • Likely holds for next 10-15 years - 2002: routinely create circuits 180 nm wide - 2010: will routinely create circuits 45 nm wide Intel: 1 billion transistors/chip, >300 mm wafers End of optical lithography, shift to UV then EUV lithography - Long term limits approaching (12/01, SIA says slowdown beginning 2005) Design bug detection/correction delays increasing Chance of 6 months delay (1-3% on 250nm chip, 15-30% on 130 nm chip) Power density heat to reject increasing (SOI may help) Source: VLSI Research Inc. J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 9 Hard Drives Outperform Moore’s Law Source: Daedalian Technologies, Ltd. J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 10 Dr. James R. Stuart Page ‹#› CO SGC Space Research Symposium: Technologies for Tomorrow NEXT GENERATION SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS Hard Drives Outperform Moore’s Law • Moore’s Law: Performance/price ratio doubles every 18 months (4 fold in 3 years) • Hard Drives: Performance/price improved ~6 fold in last 3 years Capacity improved ~10 fold in last 3 years Source: Gartner Data Group, WIRED, 2002 J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 11 Kurzweil’s View Of Moore’s Law l Moore’s Law is 5th in continuous series of paradigm shifts l ‘Each time one paradigm runs out of steam, another picks up the pace’ Source: R.Kurzweil, 2002 <http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1> J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 12 Dr. James R. Stuart Page ‹#› CO SGC Space Research Symposium: Technologies for Tomorrow NEXT GENERATION SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS Rapid Technology Advances l Lower Weights and Increased Performance Source: P. Rustan, AW&ST, 1999 J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 13 Converging Push/Pull Forces l Business Pulls l Technology Pushes - Higher bandwidths - Power generation and storage - Higher capacities - Multi-beam and large antennas - Smaller, more affordable terminals - Smart and multi-functional composite - Lower bit error rates (BER’s) structures - More efficient frequency reuse and - MEMS, Integrated piezo’s sharing - Deployment mechanisms - Higher frequencies - Precision pointing, attitude control, - Higher powers timing and navigation - Higher energy storage demands - Low-thrust electric propulsion - Larger antennas, smaller steerable - RF HPA’s and LNA’s beams - Digital data processing electronics - Tighter pointing (on more flexible - Thin film electronics, batteries, etc. satellites) - Optical LAN’s and Inter-satellite links - More precise stationkeeping - Modulation, coding and multiple - Inter-satellite links access schemes - Interconnectability (hybrid networks) - New frequency sharing schemes - Rapid network capacity - Autonomous satellite operations and reconfiguration/adaptation operating system software J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 14 Dr. James R. Stuart Page ‹#› CO SGC Space Research Symposium: Technologies for Tomorrow NEXT GENERATION SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS Enabling Technologies l Digital Processing - Decreasing price/performance ratio - High performance, low power, low mass, rad hard microprocessors • 100’s of MIPS and multi-gigabytes on -orbit - e.g., ESA developed rad-hard Sun Sparc processors available • Non-volatile, fast memory (e.g. AFRL’s optically coated chalcogenide C-RAM) - Digital Signal Processors (DSP’s) • ECL, CHFET, Optical FPS’s - ASIC’s, Digital GaAs, Thin-film electronics J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 15 Enabling Technologies (cont’d.) l 20/30 GHz Analog Technology - GaAs MMIC HPA’s, LNA’s - PHEMT, HBT, InP l High Density Packaging - Advanced hybrids - Multi-chip Modules (MCM’s) - UHDI, 3-D packaging l Thin Film Electronics - Multi-layer, conductive (metallic) polymers (‘plastic electronics’) • using advanced printing technology (ink-jet, roll-to-roll, etc.) - Transistors, CPU’s, LEDs, diodes, photodiodes, optocouplers, etc - Integrated thin-film batteries, photovoltaics, antennas, etc. Layer Thin Film Components Top: Photovoltaics 2nd: Power/RF Driver Components 3rd: Rechargeable Battery 4th: Bi-stable Memory 5th: Central Processor, Antenna J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 16 Dr. James R. Stuart Page ‹#› CO SGC Space Research Symposium: Technologies for Tomorrow NEXT GENERATION SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS Enabling Technologies (cont’d.) l Antenna Technology - Electronically-steered phased arrays • Modular, conformal arrays, adaptable beams - Multi-beam arrays and lenses - Large Precision Reflectors • Thin-film (nanofoamed polymer) • ‘Smart’ adaptive shapes l Optical inter-satellite links - Interconnecting LEO’s, MEO’s, HEO’s, GEO’s l Modulation and Coding Technology - Bandwidth efficient, power-efficient modulation/coding - High speed modems, coders, channelizers l Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) and Fast Packet Switching l Bandwidth Compression technology - Network quality voice at < 16 Kbps - VCR quality video at < 1.5 Mbps l Fiber-optical LAN technology - Optical processing for passive optical network - Integrated microwave and photonic circuits in InP chip J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 17 Enabling Technologies (cont’d.) l Solar Power - Thin film solar arrays (Amorphous Si, CIS, CdTe, CIGS) - Multi-junction cells • Single junction at ~13-15% • 2 junction at ~26% • 3 junction at ~40% • 4 junction at ~48% and up - Concentrators (reflective and refractive) • E.g., Entech’s 170 W/kg refractive prototype (340 W/kg coming) • 6 Boeing 702’s reflective (w/4-5 solar panels,2 junction) clouded-up - EOL power reduced from 15 kW to 12 kW - Redesign: eliminating concentrator w/6-7 panels, 3 junction GaAs J.R.Stuart 4/6/02 18 Dr. James R. Stuart Page ‹#› CO SGC Space Research Symposium: Technologies for Tomorrow NEXT GENERATION SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS Enabling Technologies (cont’d.) l Energy Storage - Batteries • NH2-CPV, Sodium Sulfur, Lithium Ion - Lithium Ion ComDev’s shown: 1/2 mass, 1/2 size Lower cost, higher reliability Lower schedule risk