Master Thesis (Energy and Environmental Engineering) Department of Management and Engineering (IEI) Program in Energy and Environmental Engineering Master Thesis Development Trends of World Energy Hu Yuetong LIU-IEI-TEK-A--09/00658--SE Examiner: Louise Trygg Department of Management and Engineering Linköping University SE-581 83 Linköping, Sweden I Master Thesis (Energy and Environmental Engineering) Presentation Date: Department and Division: 2009-06-08 Department of Management and Engineering Language Report Category ISBN: English Degree Thesis ISRN: LIU-IEI-TEK---09/00658—SE Number of Pages: Title of series: 73 pages Series number/ISSN: URL, Electronic Version http://www.ep.liu.se Title: Development Trends of World Energy Author(s): Hu Yuetong Abstract Energy has been one of the most important issues and challenge humans face in the 21st century which has a bearing on international economic and social development, global climate changes and environment protection. With a focus on development trends of world energy, this paper analyses the current world energy status and from the perspectives of energy sources, regions, end-use sectors, the balance of energy production and consumption, and in the context of its implications on the global environmental and economic and social development by using a series of indicators such as total primary energy, total final energy, energy consumption and CO2 emission intensity per capita and per GDP to compare and study. The main development trends contains depletion of fossil fuels, rapid development of renewable energy, aggravated environmental problems by energy-related GHG emissions, more unbalanced and interdependent regional energy production and consumption, more efficient energy industry; globalization and so on. This article expounds humans’ efforts to make progress in developing renewable energy and reducing energy-related environmental impacts. In the end of the paper, world energy structure development and middle-term energy consumption are projected, and the general orientations of world energy development trends in future are presented. Number of pages: 73 Pages Keywords: world energy, consumption, production, source, region, end-use sector, CO2, development trends, oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewable, electricity, Kyoto Protocol, 20-20 by 2020, security, diversification. II Master Thesis (Energy and Environmental Engineering) Table of Contents SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................... 01 1.INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 01 2.AIMS AND DELIMITATION .......................................................................................................... 03 3.METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................ 04 4.STATUS OF WORLD ENERGY USE AND ITS CHARACTERISTICS .................................... 05 4.1.STRONG GROWTH IN WORLD ENERGY DEMAND ................................................................................. 05 4.2.TRENDS A BETTER QUALITY ENERGY USE STRUCTURE ....................................................................... 07 4.3.VARIOUS GROWTH PATTERN IN REGIONAL ENENRGY CONSUMPTION ................................................... 11 4.4.DIFFERENT DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN ENERGY USE BY END-USE SECTOR ........................................ 16 4.5.STILL ABUNDANT ENERGY RESOURCE RESERVES, BUT TREND TOWARDS EXHAUSTION OF NON-RENEWABLE ................................................................................................................................ 20 5.BLANCE AND TRENDS OF WORLD ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND ............................. 28 5.1.TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY ................................................................................................................. 28 5.2.OIL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION ............................................................................................. 31 5.3.NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION .............................................................................. 35 5.4.COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION .......................................................................................... 38 5.5.ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION .............................................................................. 41 WORLD TOTAL ELECTRICITY .................................................................................................................. 41 CONVENTIONAL ELECTRICITY ................................................................................................................ 42 NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY ......................................................................................................................... 43 HYDROELECTRICITY ............................................................................................................................. 44 OTHER RENEWABLE FOR ELECTRICITY ................................................................................................... 46 6.WORLD ENERGY-RELATED CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2) EMISSION. .................................. 49 STATUS ................................................................................................................................................. 49 GHG REDUCTION ACTIONS .................................................................................................................... 51 7.WORLD ENERGY FOR FUTURE ................................................................................................. 54 7.1.WORLD ENERGY STRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT AND REFORM ............................................................... 54 7.2.PROJECTED WORLD ENERGY USE .................................................................................................... 55 7.3.FUTURE TRENDS IN WORLD ENERGY DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................... 57 MORE HIGHLIGHTED ISSUES OF WORLD ENERGY SECURITY .................................................................... 57 DIVERSIFICATION OF ENERGY SOURCES ................................................................................................. 58 MUCH CLEANER FUEL .......................................................................................................................... 59 MORE EFFICIENT ENERGY INDUSTRY ..................................................................................................... 60 HIGHER DEGREE OF GLOBALIZATION AND MARKETIZATION .................................................................... 60 8. CONCLUDING REMARKS ........................................................................................................... 62 REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................. 63 APPENDIX ......................................................................................................................................... 66 III Master Thesis (Energy and Environmental Engineering) List of Figures Figure 01: Changes of Global Energy Use and Resource Structure, 1850 - 2000 Figure 02: World Total Primary Energy use, 1970 – 2006 Figure 03: China’s Total Energy use and Its Intensity by GDP & Capita, 1980-2006 Figure 04: Fuel Fraction of World total primary energy use in 1980 and 2006 Figure 05: World total primary energy use by Source, 1980 – 2006 (Mtoe) Figure 06: Average Annual Growth Rates of Renewable Energy Capacity, 2002-2006 Figure 07: World Annual Primary Energy use by region, 1980 – 2006 (Mtoe) Figure 08: Total Primary Energy use Intensity by GDP & Population, 1980-2006 Figure 09: Changes of Primary Energy use by fuel in OECD & Non-OECD, 1980-2006 Figure 10: Primary Energy use Structure in Asia & Oceania, 1980-2006 Figure 11: Primary Energy use Structure in North America, 1980-2006 Figure 12: Primary Energy use Structure in Cent. & S. America, 1980-2006 Figure 13: Primary Energy use Structure in Europe, 1980-2006 Figure 14: Primary Energy use Structure in Eurasia, 1980-2006 Figure 15: Primary Energy use Structure in Middle East, 1980-2006 Figure 16: Primary Energy use Structure in Middle East, 1980-2006 Figure 17: World Final Energy use by Sector, 1973 – 2006 Figure 18: Fraction of Final Energy use by Sector in Different Region/Country, 2006 Figure 19: Final Energy use by per Capita, 2006 Figure 20: Final Energy use by real GDP, 2006 Figure 21: Historical and Most Recently World Proved Oil Reserves as of 2009.01.01 Figure 22: Historical and Most Recently World Proved Natural Gas Reserves as of 2009.01.01 Figure 23: Historical and Most Recently World Proved Coal Reserves at end-2007 Figure 24: Historical and Most Recently World Known Uranium Resources + Exploration Figure 25: Historical D-Value between Primary energy production and Consumption by Region Figure 26: Comparison of Oil Production and Consumption between OECD and Non-OECD Figure 27: World Annual Oil Production and Consumption by Region, 1980 - 2006 Figure 28: Oil Price & USA Net Oil Imports, 1970 – 2009 Figure 29: Comparison of Gas Production and Consumption between OECD and Non-OECD Figure 30: World Annual Natural Gas Production and Consumption by Region, 1980 - 2006 Figure 31: Gas Price comparison with Oil price and by country Figure 32: Comparison of Coal Production and Consumption between