QUANTUM COMPUTING IS A MIRAGE A PRACTICAL MACHINE MIGHT NEVER BE POSSIBLE P. 24 FOR THE TECHNOLOGY INSIDER | 03.19 THE INTERNET OF COWS HOW LoRa WIRELESS TECH MAKES EXCLUSIVE IoT EASY P. 07 SPECIAL CHINA’S BID FOR GRID SUPREMACY DELIVERY UPPING THE NIMBLE MACHINES WITH ANTE TO DYNAMIC LEGS WILL GO 1 MEGAVOLT WHERE NO ROBOTS HAVE P. 36 GONE BEFORE P. 30 HERE’S HACKING’S STATE OF THE ART BRANCH- PREDICTOR ATTACKS ARE ON THE RISE P. 42 starting at AWGs $4,980 per channel 2.4 GSa/s, 16 bit, 750 MHz 4, 8 and more channels <50 ns trigger latency Typical Applications Semiconductor testing, quantum computing, phased-array radar design & test, Boost your lidar, spectroscopy, NMR lab's performance Impedance starting at Analyzers $11,270 DC to 5 MHz, 1 mΩ to 1 TΩ 0.05% basic accuracy Compensation Advisor and Confidence Indicators Typical Applications High-Q dielectrics, capacitive sensors, supercapacitors, PV materials, component characterization Lock-in starting at Amplifiers $6,210 Up to 600 MHz Scope, FFT, FRA, Sweeper, Imaging tool Optional: AWG, PID, PLL, Boxcar, Counter, AM & FM Typical Applications AFM, LVP, CARS, SRS, SNOM, graphene, optical PLL, THz, pump-probe, RFID, MEMS, NEMS, gyros, NDT, MRFM LabOne® Software All instruments are equipped with LabOne®, the Zurich Instruments control software, providing a wealth of features, efficient workflows and ease of use. Access your instruments from any web browser or integrate it into your LabVIEW, MAT- LAB, Python, C, and .NET programs. Intl. +41 44 515 0410 USA 855-500-0056 (Toll Free) [email protected] www.zhinst.com Zurich Let's discuss your application Instruments Start the conversation today CONTENTS_03.19 WALK THIS WAY A new generation of legged robots is learning to move with greater agility and efficiency. by jonathan hurst Page 30 24 THE CASE AGAINST QUANTUM COMPUTING A skeptical physicist explains why he’s not expecting practical quantum computers to arrive anytime soon. By Mikhail Dyakonov 36 A GRID AS BIG AS CHINA A massive expansion leads to the first ultrahigh- voltage AC-DC power grid. By Peter Fairley 42 HOW THE SPECTRE AND MELTDOWN HACKS REALLY WORKED An in-depth look at these dangerous microprocessor vulnerabilities. By Nael Abu-Ghazaleh, Dmitry Ponomarev & Dmitry Evtyushkin 07 NEWS 16 RESOURCES 21 OPINION THE INSTITUTE 01–16 On the cover and this page Photograph for IEEE Spectrum by Dan Saelinger IEEE SPECTRUM (ISSN 0018-9235) is published monthly by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. All rights reserved. © 2019 by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., 3 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10016-5997, U.S.A. Volume No. 56, Issue No. 3. The editorial content of IEEE Spectrum magazine does not represent official positions of the IEEE or its organizational units. Canadian Post International Publications Mail (Canadian Distribution) Sales Agreement No. 40013087. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: Circulation Department, IEEE Spectrum, Box 1051, Fort Erie, ON L2A 6C7. Cable address: ITRIPLEE. Fax: +1 212 419 7570. INTERNET: [email protected]. ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTIONS: IEEE Members: $21.40 included in dues. Libraries/institutions: $399. 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IEEE’s member-news publication, The Institute, will epoxy EP30NS now be integrated into IEEE Spectrum’s print magazine, once a quarter. For the past several decades, The Institute has been a stand-alone newspaper that was most recently Abrasion resistant bundled with issues of Spectrum and distributed four per ASTM D466-14 times a year. We’ll I also be migrating The Institute’s Optically clear online content Refractive index: 1.56 onto Spectrum’s website over the course of 2019. NASA low outgassing Why the change? per ASTM E595 There are of course some cost savings and environmental benefits Dimensionally stable to be had by combining Hardness: 80-90 Shore D the distribution of these two very different member Low CTE publications. 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Let us know what you think of the new format, at [email protected]. ■ 154 Hobart St., Hackensack, NJ 07601 USA 03.19 +1.201.343.8983 • mainmasterbond.com www.masterbond.com New Advanced Optical Transceiver Test Suite Complementing its 400GE test features, VeEX’s RXT-6400 Advanced Optical Transceiver test suite allows users to quickly test, qualify, and validate the performance of optical modules. New high speed optical modules that operate with PAM4 modulation, can easily be tested with this new test suite before they are used in production environments such as data centers, core and transport networks. Product Highlights • Voltage Sweep: Pre-FEC BER validation over operational voltage range (±5%) to verify optical module integrity • Pre-FEC BER: BER testing on a per-lane basis to verify the integrity of all electrical and optical lanes before FEC is applied to the PAM4 signal. Aggregate and Per Lane bit error count and BER measurements qualify the optical module performance under pre-FEC conditions • Frequency Offset Sweep: Pre-FEC BER testing on up to five frequency offset values. Pulling range can be varied between ±100 ppm from nominal clock frequency • Voltage/Temperature/BER monitoring: Voltage, temperature, and Pre-FEC BER are monitored and displayed for the duration of the test. A histogram function clearly displays all three measurements for easy correlation and tracking of any abnormal changes throughout the test • Pass/Fail Thresholds: Configurable threshold values for PASS/FAIL indication are available for transmit and receive optical power levels and pre-FEC BER • I2C Read/Write and Pre-Emphasis settings: For expert users, individual I2C registers can be read and programmed with an intuitive read/write user interface. All register settings can be saved for future referencing. Per-Lane PAM4 Pre-Emphasis settings are configurable. Pre-taps, Post-taps, and attenuation settings allow for PAM4 signal conditioning on the host side to help verify and stress transceiver tolerance and performance. In Auto and Manual modes, the PAM4 Pre-Emphasis settings are set to default values Website: www.veexinc.com Email: [email protected] 400GE Solutions Tel: +1.510.651.0500 Visit us at OFC® 2019 - Booth #1816 The Verification Experts Fax: +1.510.651.0505 CONTRIBUTORS_ EDITOR IN CHIEF Susan Hassler, [email protected] ADVERTISING PRODUCTION MANAGER EXECUTIVE EDITOR Glenn Zorpette, [email protected] Felicia Spagnoli, [email protected] Nael Abu-Ghazaleh EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, DIGITAL SENIOR ADVERTISING PRODUCTION COORDINATOR Harry Goldstein, [email protected] Nicole Evans Gyimah, [email protected] Abu-Ghazaleh is chair of the computer engineering MANAGING EDITOR Elizabeth A. Bretz, [email protected] EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD, IEEE SPECTRUM department at the University of California, SENIOR ART DIRECTOR Susan Hassler, Chair; David C. Brock, Sudhir Dixit, Riverside. With Dmitry Ponomarev of the State Mark Montgomery, [email protected] Limor Fried, Robert Hebner, Grant Jacoby, Leah Jamieson, SENIOR EDITORS University of New York at Binghamton and Dmitry Deepa Kundur, Norberto Lerendegui, Steve Mann, Stephen Cass (Resources), [email protected] Evtyushkin of the College of William and Mary, Allison Marsh, Jacob Østergaard, Umit Ozguner, John Rogers, Erico Guizzo (Digital), [email protected] he has been studying side-channel cybersecurity Jonathan Rothberg, Umar Saif, Takao Someya, Jean Kumagai, [email protected] Maurizio Vecchione, Yu Zheng, Kun Zhou, Edward Zyszkowski attacks. In this issue, they explain the Spectre and Samuel K. Moore, [email protected] Meltdown vulnerabilities [p. 42]. Abu-Ghazaleh Tekla S. Perry, [email protected] EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD, THE INSTITUTE says to expect such threats to continue. “In general, Philip E. Ross, [email protected] Kathy Pretz, Chair; John Baillieul, Philip Chen, attacks on computer architecture are here to stay.” David Schneider, [email protected] Michael B. Forster, Shashank Gaur, Susan Hassler, DEPUTY ART DIRECTOR Brandon Palacio, [email protected] Hulya Kirkici, Cecilia Metra, San Murugesan, Mirela Sechi PHOTOGRAPHY DIRECTOR Randi Klett, [email protected] Annoni Notare, Joel Trussell, Hon K.