Atlantic Council GEOTECH CENTER Report of the Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data Atlantic Council GEOTECH CENTER The Atlantic Council GeoTech Center works to shape the global future of data and technology together. ISBN-13: 978-1-61977-178-9 This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. May 2021 Cover: Double Keck Lasers by Jason Chu Photography, https://jason-chu.pixels.com Website: This report includes an interactive website, https://atlanticcouncil.org/geotechreport Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data In preparing this report for the United States and its allies, to include members of Congress, the new presidential administration, private industry, academia, and like-minded nations, the Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data sought to provide a compass bearing between where the world stood in 2020-2021 and a freer, more secure, and more prosperous world in 2031. Data capabilities and new technologies impact geopolitics, global competition, and global opportunities for collaboration. The coming decade must address the sophisticated but potentially fragile systems Co-Chairs that now connect people and nations, and incorporate resiliency as Mr. John Goodman Ms. Teresa Carlson a necessary foundational pillar of modern life. To maintain national and economic security and competitiveness in the global economy, Honorary Co-Chairs Sen. Mark Warner the United States and its allies must continue to be preeminent in key Sen. Rob Portman Rep. Suzan DelBene technology areas, and take measures to ensure the trustworthiness Rep. Michael McCaul and sustainability of the digital economy, the analog economy, and Commissioners their infrastructures to include: Mr. Max R. Peterson II Mr. Paul Daugherty Global science and technology leadership Mr. Maurice Sonnenberg • Hon. Michael Chertoff Secure data and communications Hon. Michael J. Rogers • Mr. Pascal Marmier Ramayya Krishnan, PhD • Enhanced trust and confidence in the digital economy Hon. Shirley Ann Jackson, PhD Hon. Susan M. Gordon • Assured supply chains and system resiliency Vint Cerf, PhD Zia Khan, PhD Continuous global health protection and global wellness Anthony Scriffignano, PhD • Ms. Frances F. Townsend • Assured space operations for public benefit Admiral James Stavridis, USN, Ret. Director & Executive Team • Future of work David A. Bray, PhD Peter Brooks, PhD Ms. Stephanie Wander The report’s practical, implementable recommendations will enable the United States and like-minded nations to employ data capabilities and new technologies to achieve the goals set by this Commission. Mr. John Goodman, Co-Chair Ms. Teresa Carlson, Co-Chair David A. Bray, Director Report of the Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data Executive Summary he advancing speed, scale, and sophistication of new technologies and data capabilities that aid or disrupt our interconnected world are unprecedented. While generations have relied consistently on technologies and tools to improve societies, we now are in an era where new technologies and data Treshape societies and geopolitics in novel and even unanticipated ways. As a result, gov- ernments, industries, and other stakeholders must work together to remain economically competitive, sustain social welfare and public safety, protect human rights and demo- cratic processes, and preserve global peace and stability. Emerging technologies also promise new abilities to make our increasingly fragile global society more resilient. To sustain this progress, nations must invest in research, expand their digital infrastructures, and increase digital literacy so that their people can compete and flourish in this new era. Yet, at the same time, no nation or international organization is able to keep pace with the appropriate governance structures needed to grapple with the complex and destabilizing dynamics of these emerging technologies. Governments, espe- cially democratic governments, must work to build and sustain the trust in the algorithms, infrastructures, and systems that could underpin society. The world must now start to understand how technology and data interact with society and how to implement solutions that address these challenges and grasp these opportunities. Maintaining both economic and national security and resiliency requires new ways to develop and deploy critical and emerging technologies, cultivate the needed human capital, build trust in the digital fabric with which our world will be woven, and establish norms for international cooperation. The Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data (GeoTech Commission) was established by the Atlantic Council in response to these challenges and seeks to develop recommendations to achieve these strategic goals. Specifically, the GeoTech Commission examined how the United States, along with other nations and global stakeholders, can maintain science and technology (S&T) leadership, ensure the trustworthiness and resiliency of physical and software/informational technology (IT) supply chains and infrastructures, and improve global health protection and wellness. The GeoTech Commission identified key recommendations and practical steps forward for the US Congress, the presidential administration, executive branch agencies, private industry, academia, and like-minded nations. ES-1 Report of the Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data The GeoTech Decade Data capabilities and new technologies increasingly exacerbate social inequality and impact geopolitics, global competition, and global opportunities for collaboration. The coming decade—the “GeoTech Decade”—must address the sophisticated but poten- tially fragile systems that now connect people and nations, and incorporate resiliency as a necessary foundational pillar of modern life. Additionally, the rapidity of machines to make sense of large datasets and the speed of worldwide communications networks means that any event can escalate and cascade quickly across regions and borders— with the potential to further entrench economic inequities, widen disparities in access to adequate healthcare, as well as to hasten increased exploitation of the natural envi- ronment. The coming years also will present new avenues for criminals and terrorists to do harm; authoritarian nations to monitor, control, and oppress their people; and dip- lomatic disputes to escalate to armed conflict not just on land, sea, and in the air, but also in space and cyberspace. 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 Decade of Counterterrorism Decade of Decreasing Trust GeoTech Decade where activities globally in government and big technology and new data technology companies capabilities will significantly affect geopolitics, competition, and collaboration Domestically and internationally, the United States must promote strategic initiatives that employ data and new technologies to amplify the ingenuity of people, diversity of talent, strength of democratic values, innovation of companies, and the reach of global partnerships. Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data Collections Critical technologies that will shape the GeoTech Decade—and in which the United States and its allies must maintain global S&T leadership—can be grouped into six areas. All technologies in these categories will have broad—and interdependent—effects on people and the way they live and work, on global safety and security, and on the health of people and our planet. • Technologies that enable a digital economy: communications and network- ing, data science, and cloud computing: collectively provide the foundation for secure transmission of data for both the public and private sector and establish robust economies of ideas, resources, and talent. • Technologies for intelligent systems: artificial intelligence, distributed sen- sors, edge computing, and the Internet of Things: add new capabilities for ES-2 Report of the Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data understanding changes in the world in both physical and digital environments. The resulting data may supplement human intelligence, social engagements, and other sources of insight and analysis. In select, defined areas, intelligent systems may enhance human governance of complex systems or decisions. • Technologies for global health and wellness: biotechnologies, precision med- icine, and genomic technologies: help create new fields of research, develop- ment, and practical solutions that promote healthy individuals and communities. Nations and health care organizations can use advances in genomics, or more broadly omics,1 to provide sentinel surveillance2 capabilities with respect to nat- ural or weaponized pathogens. Sentinel surveillance can provide early detection, data about how a new element is appearing and growing, and information to guide our response. • Technologies that enlarge where people, enterprises, and governments oper- ate: space technologies, undersea technologies: commercial companies and nations around the world are deploying mega-constellations of satellites, or fleets of autonomous ocean platforms, with advanced, persistent surveillance and communications capabilities.