Company Report: Guangzhou Automobile Group (02238 HK) Toliver Ma 马守彰 公司报告：广州汽车集团 (02238 HK) +852 25095317 [email protected] 国泰君安研究 16 February 2017 Engine Powering up for Major Brands, Initiate “Accumulate” 主要品牌发力,首次覆盖并给予“收集”的投资评级 GTJA Research GTJA th Being the 6 largest automaker in China, GAC displayed the fastest rate Rating: Accumulate of growth among the top 6 automakers in China, with 2016 growth rate Initial at 26.9%. In 2016, its own Trumpchi brand and joint venture with Fiat Chrysler 评级： 收集 (首次研究) fuelled growth for the Company; we expect this trend to continue in 2017 and 2018 albeit in a less significant manner. We expect sales of passenger vehicles to increase 26.3%, 22.5% and 7.3% yoy in 2016 to 2018, 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$13.96 respectively. Basic EPS forecasted to increase 48.8%, 11.9% and 9.3% yoy in 2016 to Share price 股价： HK$12.900 2018, respectively. Significant improvement expected in 2016 due to the upturn from GAMC’s Trumpchi and GAC FCA’s Jeep. Both brands are to contribute a full year of profit in 2016 and sustain profit-making in 2017 to Stock performance 股价表现 2018. However, we forecast slower growth in 2017 and 2018 as we see 110.0 growth from GAMC and FCA normalized, and with Honda’s and Toyota’s % of return expansion plans to remain conservative. 90.0 70.0 Initiate TP at HK$13.96 with an “Accumulate”investment rating, which 50.0 represents 11.4x/10.4x 2017/2018 PER and 1.34x/1.29x 2017/2018 PBR. 30.0 We think that GAC’s valuation is still attractive, despite their stock price 10.0 rallying 88.0% since Jan. 2016, as 1) GAC has exhibited strong earnings potential and 2) GAC has been trading under its peers’ weighted average (10.0) ) HK PER since Sep. 2016, therefore, we see the current share price as an (30.0) 38 (50.0) accumulation opportunity. 22 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 0 ( 作为中国 6 大汽车制造商，广州汽车的 2016 年汽车销售增长达 26.9％，为 6 大车企最快。 HSI Guangzhou Auto-H 在 2016 年，自主品牌传祺，以及合资公司菲亚特-克莱斯勒为公司带来增长，我们预计这 种趋势将在 2017 年和 2018 年持续，尽管较为温和。我们预计 2016-2018 年乘用车销量 Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 广州汽车 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 将分别同比增长 26.3％，22.5％和 7.3％。 Abs. % 23.8 39.9 76.5 绝对变动 % 基本每股收益在 年分别增长 ％， ％和 ％。由于广汽集团乘用车的 2016- 2018 48.8 11.9 9.3 Rel. % to HS index 18.2 32.2 51.0 传祺和广汽菲亚特的 Jeep 在 2016 年有显著改善，这两个品牌在 2016 年全年贡献利润， 相对恒指变动 % Avg. share price(HK$) 并在 年至 年维持。然而，我们预计 年和 年的增长将会放缓，因为 11.4 10.2 9.5 2017 2018 2017 2018 平均股价（港元） 我们预期广汽集团乘用车和广汽菲亚特的增长将正常化，及本田和丰田保守的扩张计划。 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 首予广州汽车“收集”的评级并给予 13.96 港元的目标价，相当于 11.4 倍/10.4 倍的 Auto Group Guangzhou 2017/2018 财年市盈率以及 1.34 倍/1.29 倍的 2017/2018 财年市净率。尽管自 2016 年 1 月以来股价已上涨 88.0％，我们认为广州汽车估值仍具吸引力，因 1）广州汽车表现出 强劲的盈利潜力，及 2）广州汽车自 2016 年 9 月以来一直低于同业的市场加权平均市盈率， 因此，我们认为目前股价有“收集”的机会。 Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2014A 22,383 3,194 0.496 20.4 20.4 5.509 1.8 0.160 1.6 9.2 2015A 29,418 4,212 0.654 31.9 16.4 6.006 1.8 0.200 1.9 11.4 2016F 48,839 6,265 0.974 48.8 11.8 6.687 1.7 0.292 2.5 15.3 2017F 63,580 7,414 1.089 11.9 10.5 9.289 1.2 0.327 2.8 14.0 2018F 67,767 8,547 1.191 9.3 9.6 9.643 1.2 0.357 3.1 12.9 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 6,454.2 Major shareholder 大股东 GAIG 60.66% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 83,259.4 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 39.34 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 19,079.7 FY17 Net gearing (%) FY17 净负债/股东资金 (%) Net Cash 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 13.240 / 6.630 FY17 Est. NAV (HK$) FY17 每股估值 (港元) 14.69 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 27 d Table of Contents Industry Overview 3 Passenger Vehicles ........................................................................................................... 3 2017 ruary Commercial Vehicles ......................................................................................................... 5 16 Feb Company Analysis 6 Shareholder Structure ....................................................................................................... 6 Development History - Three Major Development Stages................................................. 6 Business Composition ....................................................................................................... 7 Revenue and Profit Contribution ....................................................................................... 8 Sales and Market Share .................................................................................................... 9 Guangqi Honda ............................................................................................................... 10 GAC Toyota ..................................................................................................................... 12 GAC Mitsubishi ............................................................................................................... 14 GAC Fiat Chrysler ........................................................................................................... 15 ) 02238 HK 02238 ( Self-owned Brand – Trumpchi ......................................................................................... 16 2016-2018 Sales and Financial Forecasts 19 广州汽车 Revenue and Gross Margin ............................................................................................ 19 Investment Income – Share of Profit from JV .................................................................. 20 Fundraising Activities ...................................................................................................... 23 Guangzhou Auto Group Guangzhou Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risk 23 Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 27 d Industry Overview Passenger Vehicles 2017 A good year for the automobile industry in 2016. According to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”), ruary China vehicle sales showed double-digit growth in 2016, the highest since 2013. China vehicle sales increased 13.7% yoy in 2016, in which sales growth of passenger vehicles (“PV”) continuously expanded since 4Q15 due to the introduction of the 16 Feb purchase tax cut policy which heavily favored smaller engine displacement vehicles. Along with low base comparison in 2015, PV sales increased 15.1% yoy. Among different types of PV, sales of sedans, MPVs and SUVs increased 3.1%, 18.9% and 46.1% yoy, respectively, while that of cross-overs decreased 21.2% yoy. Due to sturdy demand of SUVs in recent years, SUV sales increased much faster than other types of PVs. This lead to a significant increase of market share of SUVs, which expanded 7.4 ppts since Dec. 2015, the fastest growing sub-segment in the PV market. Figure-1: China Vehicle Sales and Sales Growth Figure-2: China PV Sales and Sales Growth Vehicle sales yoy PV sales yoy Units (Units) 30,000,000 45.5% 50% 30,000,000 52.9% 60% 45% 25,000,000 40% 25,000,000 50% 32.5% 35% 20,000,000 20,000,000 33.3% 40% 24.8% 30% 22.3% 29.6% 15,000,000 25% 15,000,000 22.3% 30% 13.9% 13.7% 20% 10,000,000 15.7% 15% 10,000,000 15.1% 20% 6.6% 4.2% 6.8% 4.6% 10% 6.9% 9.9% 5,000,000 2.7% 7.1% 5.4% 7.2% 5% 5,000,000 10% - 0% - 0% 2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2016 2007 2011 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2010 2014 ) Source: CAAM, Guotai Junan International. Source: CAAM, Guotai Junan International. 02238 HK 02238 ( Figure-3: Sales Growth of Different Types of PV Figure-4: Market Share of Different Types of PV Sedan MPV SUV Crossover Sedan MPV SUV Crossover 100% 5.2% 3.0% 广州汽车 110.0% 9.1% 6.8% 15.6% 14.6% 16.7% 20.7% 90.0% 80% 11.2% 12.9% 29.4% 36.8% 3.4% 3.2% 7.3% 70.0% 9.7% 60% 10.0% 50.0% 10.3% 30.0% 40% 69.8% 69.4% 67.0% 62.8% Auto Group Guangzhou 55.4% 10.0% 50.0% 20% -10.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2016 2015 2011 0% -30.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -50.0% Source: CAAM, Guotai Junan International. Source: CAAM, Guotai Junan International. Market share of self-owned brands rebounded. According to CAAM, sales of self-owned branded PVs increased 20.8% yoy in 2016, faster than other brands and the industry average. As a result, market share of self-owned brands increased 1.6 ppts to 42.8% since Dec. 2015. PV sales of self-owned brands increased rapidly in recent years due to 1) its swift decision to heavily invest in SUVs, 2) a major beneficiary from the purchase tax cut policy due to its high product exposure to engine displacements below 1.6L vehicles and 3) higher price performance ratio compared to foreign OEM. Meanwhile, growth of Japanese, German and American brands in 2016 have been roughly aligned with the industry, demonstrating growth from 13.8% to 15.8%, and thus market share has remained stable for those brands. Underperformers in 2016 were Korean and French brands, in which growth increased 7.2% and decreased 14.7% yoy, respectively. Both brands suffered due to a lack of investment in products, including lower localization of models and failing to meet consumer’s preferences. They faced fierce competition mainly from Japanese and German brands in the mid- to high–end market, as well as self-owned brands in the lower end. Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 27 d Figure-5: Market Share of Different Nationalities of Figure-6: Growth in Different Nationalities of Automakers Automakers 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 42.8% 41.2% 45% 40.4% 40.0% 38.3% 40% ruary 35% 30.0% 30% 20.8% 16 Feb 25% 20.0% 15.8% 15.2% 20.0% 19.1% 18.9% 13.8% 18.8% 16.1% 15.9% 15.8% 20% 15.7% 12.8% 12.6% 7.2% 12.3% 15% 12.2% 10.0% 9.0% 8.9% 8.0% 10% 7.3% 3.7% 3.5% 3.1% 5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Self Japanese German American Korean French 0% owned -10.0% Self owned Others French Korean -14.7% German -20.0% American Japanese Source: CAAM, Guotai Junan International.