International Symposium On Managing Water Supply for Growing Demand Bangkok, Thailand 16-20 October 2006 Proceedings Edited by Sacha Sethaputra, Kitchakarn Promma IHP Technical Documents in Hydrology No.6 UNESCO office , Jakarta 2006 <&. nd X International Symposium on Managing Water Supply for Growing Demand In conjunction with the 14th Regional Steering Committee Meeting for UNESCO - IHP Southeast Asia and The Pacific The Grand Hotel Bangkok, Thailand 16-20 October 2006 Sponsored by UNESCO Office, Jakarta anese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) Department of Water Resources, Thailand Organized by Thai National Committee for IHP-UNESCO Thailand National Commission for UNESCO Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Thailand ii Preface The IHP Symposium on Managing Water Supply for Growing Demand was held in conjunction with the 3rd APHW Conference on Water Resources Management towards Sustainable Growth and Poverty Reduction during October 16-20, 2006 at the Grand Hotel, Bangkok , Thailand. It was aimed to strengthen the cooperation among the Asia - Pacific countries to solve the problem of limited and fragile water resources in order to respond to the ever-lasting demand of water. It also provided the international arena for all stakeholders in the region to exchange experiences and information on hydrological sciences in order to achieve both solutions for better life as well as to consolidate a regional commitment so as to upgrade knowledge on water resources management and increase the capacity of relevant stakeholders. As the IHP Symposium was organized in parallel with the 3rd APHW Conference, it provided the opportunities for all counties to establish the solid cooperation and to make the utmost benefit from experiences and information exchange to tackle with the water-related problem in their particular countries under the framework of UNESCO's International Hydrological Programme onwards. The Proceedings published for the IHP Conference comprise 26 technical document papers, in which various issues and their interesting analysis are included. All papers were presented in the IHP Symposium sessions and were accumulated as the UNESCO technical papers both in forms of hard copy and CD-ROM. The organizing committee do hope mat this technical paper will be of great benefit to the readers and could contribute to the improvement of water resources management and hydrological knowledge in the future. Finally, the organizing committee would like to render our great appreciation and thanks to the UNESCO Office in Jakarta and the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports , Science and Technology ( MEXT) for their financial supports. Without these supports, the organization of the IHP Symposium and the publishing of the Proceedings would not be possible. in CONTENT Preface iii Content v A Application of a New Flood Stochastic Simulation Model Developed by Russian Hydrologist in the Basin of Qiantang River YUANFANG CHEN, GUOXINCHEN, WENPENG WANG, SHUJIAN LI, AOMI CHEN 1. *- Statistical Experiment Study of Design Annual Runoff Estimated by Curve-Fitting Method for Pearson Type- III Distribution Chen Yuan-fang, Zhao Li-hong, Xu Sui, Ma Bing-xun, Wang Wen-peng 9- = Exact and approximate analytical solutions for steady seepage inflows to horizontal wells L. Q. Liongson 15, 4 Effective management of water resources via demand management: Some examples from Southeast N. W. Chan, V. Nittvattananon 23- G Managing Increased Water Demand in China: A Great Challenge Z.X.XU.J. Y.LI 39- fc? Water Distribution Network Analysis for DMA Design of Ladprao Branch, Bangkok, Thailand A. Pornprommin, S. Lipiwattanakarn, S. Chittaladakorn 45 y Water Rights and water allocation in Andean basins J. Molina, E. Villarroel, J. Alurralde, A. Apaza,F.Soria 51 O Membrane Filtration Removing Salts and Arsenic in Drinking Water for Rural Areas Pikul Wanichapichart, Wiriya Duangsuwan, Darunee Bhongsuwan, Pusadee Mohamad, and Porntip Sridang, 59 Cf Basin water use accounting method with application to the Mekong Basin Mac Kirby, Mohammed Mainuddin, Geoff Podger, Lu Zhang 67, A 0 A Framework to Assess Model Structural Stability through a Single-Objective Global Optimization Method GihaLEE, Yasuto TACHIKAWA, Kaoru TAKARA 79 A\ Derivation of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationships for Short-Duration Rainfall from Daily Data LeMinhNHAT, Y. Tachikawa, T. Sayama, K. Takara 89 A ¿_ Stochastic Modeling of Rainfall Maxima Using Neyman-Scott Rainfall Model Carlo Mondoñedo, Yasuto Tachikawa, Kaoru Takara 97 \ 2) Effect of Moving Storm Rainfall on Soil Erosion and Sediment Transport from Watersheds Guillermo Q. Tabios III, PhD 109 v >|£ Status of Disaster Database and Limitations for Planning T. Merabtene, J. Yoshitani, A. Pathirana 125 \ k ICHARM's Research Strategy toward Effective Implementations of Flood Forecasting and Warning System in Asia K. Fukami, H. Inomata, P. Hapuarachchi, R. Oki 133 f 7 Modified Remote Sensing Information Model of Water Erosion on Hillslopes D.Y. Shen, K. Takara 139 \ 8 Capacity Building - Application of Geoinformatics for Disaster Lai Samarakoon, Takashi Moriyama, Chu Ishida 145 A°\ Scope of Flood Hazard Mapping in Developing Countries Shigenobu Tanaka, Rabindra Osti, Toshikazu Tokioka 153 L 0 The Prediction of Flooding Area in the Pasak River Basin by Using Mathematical Model : A Case Study on Land Use N. Hungspreug, A. Penghuaro 159 Combating Reservoir Sedimentation: A Challenge for Sustainability T. Tingsanchali, N.M. Khan 169 /Lt. Impact of 2004-tsunami Natural Disaster on Water District-10 Banda Aceh of Krueng Aceh River Basin Development Masimin, Zouhrawaty A. Ariff. 179 Surface Water Treatment with Microfiltration at The Village of Pranon, Nakhon Sawan Province, Thailand William R. Sellerberg, P.E., Voravuthi RakTae-ngan 187 /L.¿^, Overview of United States Drinking Water Regulations Anthony M. Wachinski, PhD, PE 193 /]_ g Effect of ENSO on Southeast Asian Rainfall Tsing-Chang (Mike) Chen 201 /)(-, Tropical storms and associated flood risk on Grande Terre, New Caledonia Ray A. Kostaschuk, James P. Terry, Geoffroy Wotling 207 vi Application of a New Flood Stochastic Simulation Model Developed by Russian Hydrologist in the Basin of Qiantang River YUANFANG CHEN, GUOXIN CHEN, WENPENG WANG, SHUJIAN LI, AOMI CHEN Department of Hydrology and Water resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China E-mail: vfchen@,mail.edu.cn ABSTRACT In order to simulate flood process better, the study focus on the application of a new flood stochastic simulation model developed by Russian hydrologist Sambotsky, which could describe the characteristics of rapid rise and slow fall for flood hydrograph, in the basin of Qiantang river in the southern region of China. In the case study, a lot of stochastic tests have been done for the new model, including the test of annual maximum peak flow, annual flood volumes. The results show that flood process simulated may pass all tests. Meanwhile, the new model is also compared with the conventional models, including seasonal AR(1) model and the Disaggregation model by statistical test for simulation flood process. The results show that the new model is better than the other two models at least in this basin. So it's said that the new model is feasible to simulate the flood process for the basin. Key words: Flood stochastic simulation , Russia, AR(1) model disaggregation model, Qiantang river, Ap­ plication, Statistical test 1 INTRODUCTION practical regression order. In fact, regression Traditional flood stochastic model is often exponential is nonlinearity andchanged along with based on different kinds of correlativities in time magnitude of discharge. Recently, a new flood sequence and spatial sequence of daily flow or stochastic simulation model was developed by shorter-time interval flow. And it pays much Russian hydrologist, which could describe the attention to statistical characteristics of aggregate characteristics of rapid rise and slow fall for flood and constituent. This kind of model includes hydrograph. Here 32 years(1958-1989) of hydro- seasonal AR(1) model and the Disaggregation logic observations in Quxian station in the basin model and so on. Generally these conventional of Qiantang river in flood season are selected as a models could reflect main characteristics of daily sample, then our study probe into the feasibility, flow in time sequence well. Therefore they are simulation effect, advantage and disadvantage and widely used nowadays when we simulate daily so on of this new model used in China stream flow. However as we know that flood process is simulation. non-reversible in time sequence for daily flow. For example, there is obvious distinction between 2 MODEL DESCRIPTION the growth curve and regression curve of one The stochastic model of the hydrograph of flood daily flow process in mountain river basin in a flood season describes the temporal variance of southern China. Consequently, in order to describe characteristic of daily flow in time water discharge during a flood season as sequence more clearly, we'd better take this non-reversible characteristic into account. realization of a stochastic process. The time is Seasonal AR(1) model and the Disaggregation considerate with a step per one day within an model is difficult to simulate the flood natural process of rapid rise and slow fall. Though interval ' where ~~ is date of the earliest shot noise models may reflect diversity of t = T characteristic between the growth curve and