RETAIL REPORT METRO VANCOUVER FALL 2016 LEE & ASSOCIATES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE (BC) LTD. OVERVIEW METRO VANCOUVER MARKET The Metro Vancouver retail market remains stable heading the market in the next five to six years. The demand for this into Q4 of 2016 despite economic uncertainty over the past supply remains stable as some big box and large format retailers few quarters. In regards to the residential real estate industry; respond to developer activity in the Metro Vancouver market. the changing market conditions are easing upward pressure on home prices in the Metro Vancouver residential market The retail investment market has remained relatively stable which hit its peak number of sales in March 2016. Since March when compared to 2015, with 2016 sales transactions totaling 2016 sales have declined month-to-month with September $1.12 Billion* so far this year. Due to the lack of available supply, 2016 data showing a sales-to-active listings ratio of 24.1%. the market recorded just 22 investment transactions between This is the lowest this ratio has been since February 2015. $5 Million and $10 Million, representing 14% of the total sales This is in large part due to the introduction of the Foreign figure. The market saw 23 transactions above $10 Million, Buyer’s Tax of 15% which came into effect August 2nd of representing 15% of the total sales figure. The most notable this year. The soaring home prices in Metro Vancouver have transaction this year was the sale of Royal City Centre in New caused the Federal Government to step in and introduce Westminster for $114.7 Million. "mortgage stress tests" which will only allow home buyers to be pre-approved for a mortgage if they are able to still make payments if a potential higher interest rate is inputted. *Total sales figure represents a YTD transaction volume of $1.12 Billion based on The hope is that this will lessen the risk for defaulting on transactions over $1 Million. mortgages as well as bring the prices of homes back to a more affordable range. The BC economy hasn’t shown any signs of fatigue as it lead the country in employment growth adding 60,000 jobs to the province during the past twelve months. Retail sales in the MACROECONOMIC FACTORS province continue to remain strong, amounting to $6.2 Billion for the latest read in June which is a 5.2% increase from 2015. BC STATISTICS VARIABLE Q3 2016 READ TREND The BC retail estate market continues to show that retail tenants Unemployment Rate 5.5% August q are evolving into an e-commerce and multichannel approach to engaging customers. This is seen through the on-going Total Building Permits $7.676 Billion July p trend of pop-up stores, particularly in the Vancouver market. Retail Sales* $6.2 Billion June p Retailers are using pop-up locations to create awareness and Consumer Price Index 123.3 June p urgency amongst consumers while simultaneously delivering a faster and more efficient online shopping experience Net Population (2016) +0.3% April p through technological advancements in data mining. Another *Seasonally adjusted upcoming trend in the retail market involves online retailers adding brick-and-mortar stores to their portfolio; even as online shopping continues to grow, retailers such as Amazon CANADA STATISTICS and Indochino are now opening brick -and-mortar locations. VARIABLE Q3 2016 READ TREND Retail supply in Metro Vancouver has increased with over Consumer Price Index 128.9 June p 2,000,000 square feet of retail space that has or will be built Total Building Permits $47.227 Billion July out this year and another 4,000,000 square feet coming onto CAD/USD $0.758 September q Prime Lending Rate 2.70% September Overnight Rate 0.509% September Sources: Realnet, Statistics Canada, BC Statistics, Lee & Associates Research lee-associates.com THE CITY OF LOUGHEED BY SHAPE PROPERTIES GILMORE PLACE BY ONNI GROUP The City of Lougheed is a 40-acre master planned community centred around the Gilmore Place is a mixed-use master planned community development in current Lougheed Shopping Centre with redevelopment densification of 1.4 million SF Burnaby located at the Gilmore SkyTrain Station with the first phase now of retail, 1 million SF of office space and on-site residential homes. underway. CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS | LOWER MAINLAND DEVELOPER PROJECT NAME MUNICIPALITY RETAIL SIZE NOTABLE TENANTS ESTIMATED COMPLETION Shape Properties The City of Lougheed Burnaby 1,400,000 SF TBD Q1 2020 (phase 1) Ivanhoe Cambridge Tsawwassen Mills Tsawwassen 1,200,000 SF Bass Pro Shop, DSW, Saks Off 5th Q3 2016 Shape Properties The Amazing Brentwood Burnaby 547,192 SF TBD Q3 2018 (phase 1) PDG Tsawwassen Commons Tsawwassen 510,000 SF Canadian Tire, Petsmart, Dollarama Q4 2016 Onni Group Gilmore Place Burnaby 491,000 SF TBD TBD Smart Centre Central at Garden City Richmond 359,090 SF Walmart, Bed Bath and Beyond, Marshalls Q3 2016 Cressey Kings Crossing Burnaby 138,102 SF TBD Q2 2018 Matsqui Development McCallum Junction Abbotsford 130,000 SF Cabela’s Q4 2016 Onni Group Centreview North Vancouver 90,200 SF Whole Foods, Steve Nash Fitness World Q4 2017 EXPANDING RETAILERS | CANADIAN MARKET RETRACTING RETAILERS | CANADIAN MARKET TENANT TYPICAL SQ FT MARKET LOCATIONS* TENANT TYPICAL SQ FT MARKET STORES CLOSING Costco 150,000 Canada 98+ Sears 130,000 Canada TBC La Maison Simons 100,000 Canada 17+ Golf Town 18,000 Canada TBC Saks off Fifth 30,000 Canada 25+ American Apparel 3,000 Canada TBC Nordstrom Rack 30,000 Canada 20+ Jacob 3,000 Canada 92 stores Urban Barn 8,000 Canada 70+ Le Château 3,000 Canada 14+ stores Pet Valu 3,800 Canada 700+ Rudsak 2,000 Canada 50+ Smart Set 2,000 Canada 107 stores* GNC 1,000 Canada 200+ Quiznos 800 Canada TBC David’s Tea 700 Canada 250+ *76 of 107 stores will be converted into other Reitmans Canada Limited *Canadian locations post-expansion operated stores LEE & ASSOCIATES VANCOUVER FALL 2016 RETAIL REPORT | 3 DOWNTOWN VANCOUVER MARKET DOWNTOWN CORE GASTOWN | RAILTOWN Vancouver's Downtown core experienced major rejuvenation Gastown, historically a renowned destination for tourists, has with the addition of several luxury retail tenants in 2015. evolved into a trendy part of Downtown Vancouver for locals High-end retail continues to grow in 2016 with Equinox gym, as well. The retail landscape is rapidly evolving with relatively a luxury mind, body and health centre which is set to open low lease rates — compared to other Downtown submarkets in the Trump Tower this November. The revamping trend — fueling an influx of boutiques, up-scale restaurants, cafés, continues with Pacific Centre submitting a development stylish art galleries and unique fashion retailers. Noteworthy application to redevelop the existing plaza and dome located was the opening of Lululemon’s Lab, their conceptual design on the northwest corner of West Georgia and Howe Streets. retail format that relocated to 50 Powell Street from Broadway The application under review proposes a 25,614 square foot and Cambie earlier this year. three-storey addition. The 40,000 square foot expansion of Holt Renfrew is now complete, bringing the luxury department store to a total of 187,700 square feet. YALETOWN This submarket is home to some of the city’s best salons, Italian luxury brand Prada has opened a three-level flagship restaurants and lounges. Proximity to high-density condo at the southeast corner of Alberni and Thurlow Streets which towers as well as the Canada Line SkyTrain station at Davie and is approximately 13,000 square feet. Italian men’s fashion Mainland Streets drive demand in the area. Retro-fit brick and brand Stefano Ricci will open a 2,600 square foot location beam former warehouse buildings now facilitate retail spaces next to Trump International Hotel & Tower Vancouver on West and quality offices above. Demand for this heritage submarket Georgia Street. Well underway is Tiffany’s 4,700 square foot remains steady with recent entrants such as BCAA, Nuba, second level expansion at the northwest corner of Burrard and and Suquet — a new locally based high-end furniture store. Alberni Streets which replaces the former Japanese restaurant The Vancouver based Mexican taco quick-service restaurant Kamei Royale. French fashion brand Saint Laurent Paris (Yves Tacofino also opened their second location here in July 2016. Saint Laurent) recently opened its first freestanding boutique at 746 Thurlow Street, between Moncler and Prada. The 5,000 square foot, two-level store is one of the chain’s largest in North America, behind New York and Beverly Hills. MARKET FORECAST INDICATORS METRO VANCOUVER INDICATOR TREND Vacancy Net Absorption New Development p Rental Rates Cap Rates q PACIFIC CENTRE BY CADILLAC FAIRVIEW The mall owner proposes to remove the public plaza at the southwest corner of Granville Street and West Georgia Street to build a three-storey 25,000 square foot addition to Pacific Centre. lee-associates.com DOWNTOWN VANCOUVER LEASE RATE MAP Stanley Park harbour green park BURRARD INLET portside park Nelson oppenheimer Park park Robson Square ENGLISH BAY Sunset Beach Andy Livingstone Park Hadden Park Vanier Park Creekside Park Coopers Park Thorton Park George Wainborn Park David Lam Park Robson between Thurlow and Hornby boast the highest net rents in Metro Vancouver. Darker regions indicate higher lease rates. LEASE RATE TRENDS | DOWNTOWN VANCOUVER MAP STREET SEGMENT TREND NET RENT PSF TAX & CAM MAP STREET SEGMENT TREND NET RENT PSF TAX & CAM 2016* 2016* 2016* 2016* Robson Street Alberni Street p $130