CASPIAN STUDIES PROGRAM Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project Kennedy School of Government Harvard University NEWSLETTER MAY 2002 Program Chair: Graham Allison Program Director: Melissa Carr CASPIAN STUDIES IN THE CLASSROOM CSP CHAIR DIRECTS KENNEDY SCHOOL STUDENTS IN CASE STUDY ON U.S. ENERGY DEMAND AND CASPIAN OIL PRODUCTION On the same day that Iraq to make students think about America’s instituted an oil export embargo — energy policy from both a supply and demand and only weeks after the U.S. perspective. One of the main questions was Senate rejected new fuel efficiency standards for whether or not U.S. dialogue with Russia, automobiles—students in Professor Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan Graham Allison’s “Central Issues in on energy issues will help American Foreign Policy” class at the reduce U.S. vulnerability to a Kennedy School of Government disruption in petroleum presented policy recommendations for supply. addressing America’s “oil addiction.” Students also considered the At present, the United States various domestic policy consumes 19.7 million barrels of oil options available to address a day—which accounts for one the United States’ energy quarter of all global oil consumption. situation, ranging from The U.S. relies on foreign producers increasing fuel efficiency for one-half of its oil, and this figure standards to allowing drilling is expected to climb to two-thirds by in the Arctic National 2020. The case study was designed Wildlife Refuge in Alaska. CSP RESEARCH DIRECTOR USES KENNEDY SCHOOL CURRICULUM IN POLICY WORKSHOP WITH MUSKIE PROGAM GRADUATES On March 17, Research Director from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Brenda Shaffer led a Caspian Studies Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Program policy workshop at the Silk Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan came together Road Conference for Edmund S. Muskie in Baku in order to discuss regional security Fellowship alumni in Baku. This workshop issues. was based on materials drawn from the Kennedy School curriculum and focused on At the opening session, Shaffer delivered a the importance and mechanics of drafting lecture entitled “Security in Central Asia and effective policy memoranda. the Caucasus: Moving Forward.” Other speakers at this session included Ross Wilson, The conference marked the tenth anniversary U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan, and Richard of the Muskie Program, an academic initiative Morningstar, former U.S. ambassador for that enables international graduate students to Caspian affairs. study in the United States. Muskie alumni Caspian Studies Program 1 CSP PUBLICATIONS AND MEDIA Policy Brief Offers Recommendations Borders and Brethren For Democratization Assistance New Book from CSP Research Director In May, the Caspian Studies Program MIT Press will publish Brenda Shaffer’s published “Recommendations for monograph, Borders and Brethren: Iran and Democratization Assistance in the Caspian the Challenge of Azerbaijani Identity in July Region” by Vladimir Shkolnikov, an adviser 2002. Shaffer’s book examines trends in at the Organization for Security and Azerbaijani identity in both Azerbaijan and Cooperation in Europe’s Office for Iran from 1979 to 2000, the period from the Democratic Institutions and Human Rights Islamic Revolution in Iran through the (OSCE/ODIHR). In this brief, Shkolnikov Republic of Azerbaijan’s first decade of points out that the United States’ increased independence. interest and expanded presence in the Caspian region since September 11 provides an Policy Brief Focuses On Russia’s Role opportunity to re-evaluate democratization In the World Oil Market programs instituted in the region during the past decade. Shkolnikov also provides ideas The Caspian Studies Program published on how to improve these “Russia’s Role in the democratization programs. Shifting World Oil Market” in May. CSP’s Shaffer Writes Authors Lynne Kiesling In Los Angeles Times (Northwestern University) On U.S. and Russian and Joseph Becker Positions on Iran (Reason Public Policy Institute) argue that The Los Angeles Times Russia has made printed an op-ed article by significant advances in CSP Research Director improving the country’s Brenda Shaffer on investment climate and February 21 about U.S. petroleum infrastructure and Russian policy towards Iran. Shaffer’s during the past decade. Kiesling and Becker article argued that the improved relationship believe that these advances should help Russia that has developed between the United States continue to take a larger market share away and Russia since the beginning of the war on from the OPEC cartel in the future. terrorism should lead to greater cooperation between the two countries in preventing the CSP Media Appearances spread of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. According to Shaffer, Over the last several months, Research Washington would benefit from engaging in Director Brenda Shaffer has been quiet diplomacy with Russian President interviewed by numerous leading media Vladimir Putin on Iranian proliferation issues. outlets in the Caspian Region, including CNN Turkey, which interviewed her in March on For more information on CSP publications developments in the Caspian region. This and events, visit the program’s web site: interview was broadcasted in Turkey, Iran, the southern Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shaffer http://ksg.harvard.edu/BCSIA/SDI was also featured on Japan’s NHK TV in a documentary about Caspian geopolitics and the impact of Caspian oil on OPEC behavior. Caspian Studies Program 2 CSP SEMINARS AND OUTREACH On January 31 and February 1, the Caspian On April 12, Pavel Baev, head of the Foreign Studies Program hosted “Culture and and Security Policy Program at the Foreign Policy: Islam and the Caspian,” a International Peace Research Institute, Oslo conference that brought together a diverse (PRIO), spoke at a Caspian Studies Program array of scholars who work on international seminar on U.S. military assistance to relations, political theory, and the politics of Georgia’s counterterrorism campaign in the the Caspian region. Participants in this Pankisi Gorge region. He discussed how this conference are contributing to The Limits of U.S. program could affect the Georgian Culture: Islam, Foreign Policy, and the government, as well as the conflicts in Caspian Region, an edited volume that will be Abkhazia and Chechnya. published by MIT Press. On February 4, the Caspian Studies Program and the Davis Center for Russian Studies cosponsored “The Prospects for Peace in Chechnya,” a talk at Harvard by Ilyas Akhmadov, the minister of foreign affairs in the Aslan Maskhadov administration of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria. Ross Wilson, U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan, Belfer Center Executive Director John spoke at a Caspian Studies Program seminar Reppert and Boris Shikhmuradov, former on March 13. Wilson’s remarks focused on foreign Minister of Turkmenistan, at the Belfer U.S. policy toward the Caucasus region— Center on May 3. including the recent decision to send U.S. On May 3, Boris Shikhmuradov, the former troops to Georgia—and how U.S. policy in the foreign minister of Turkmenistan who also region has changed since September 11. served as his country’s special envoy on Caspian and Afghan affairs in 2000 and 2001, spoke at a Caspian Studies Program and Belfer Center Director’s seminar about regional security issues in Central Asia and the Caspian region. On May 16, CSP Fellow Mohammad Haririakbari gave a talk at the Kennedy School entitled “An Institutional Analysis of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Dr. Haririakbari has been a professor at Tabriz University in Iran for the last seventeen years. On April 3, the Caspian Studies Program hosted Konul Khalilova, a foreign affairs correspondent for the Azerbaijani newspapers 525 and The Baku Sun. CSP coordinated a program in Boston as part of Khalilova’s three-week U.S. State Department Foreign Ambassador Ross Wilson and Carol Saivetz of Press Center Reporting Tour. * Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian Studies at Wilson’s address on March 13. Caspian Studies Program 3 CSP NEWS On May 3, CSP Chair Graham Allison moderated the “Black Sea Defense Ministers Panel” at the Kennedy School of Government. This event was part of the Black Sea Security Program, a ten-day executive seminar that brought delegates from eight countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Moldova, Turkey, and Ukraine) to Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government in order to discuss security trends in the Black From left: Victor Bannykh, Victor Gaiciuc, Arman Sea region. Kirakossian, David Tevzadze, and Graham Allison. Photo by Martha Stewart The panel included Victor Bannykh, state secretary of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Victor Gaiciuc, Moldova’s minister of defense, Arman Kirakossian, Armenia’s ambassador to the United States, and David Tevzadze, Georgia’s minister of defense. In February, CSP Program Director Melissa Carr traveled to Azerbaijan to interview applicants for master’s degree and executive training programs at the Kennedy School of Government for the 2002-2003 academic year. Eleven Azerbaijani leaders who have received scholarships through CSP have completed graduate and executive programs at the Kennedy School from 2000 to 2002. Recipients of the 2002-2003 scholarships will be announced in June. On March 7, CSP Chair Graham Allison moderated a panel on “Foreign Policy Priorities: The U.S.-Azerbaijani Relationship after September 11” at the Fifth Annual United States-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce (USACC) Conference in Washington,