With the financial support of the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme European Commission – Directorate-General Home Affairs. FROM ILLEGAL MARKETS TO LEGITIMATE BUSINESSES: THE PORTFOLIO OF ORGANISED CRIME IN EUROPE Final report of Project OCP Organised Crime Portfolio Methodological Annex From illegal markets to legitimate businesses: the portfolio of organised crime in Europe Methodological Annex Methodological Annex of the Final Report of Project OCP Organised Crime Portfolio (HOME/2011/ISEC/AG/FINEC/4000002220) www.ocportfolio.eu With the financial support of the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme European Commission Directorate-General Home Affairs. Project OCP has been funded with support from the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the authors, and the European Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. Suggested citation: Savona Ernesto U. & Riccardi Michele (Eds.). 2015. From illegal markets to legitimate businesses: the portfolio of organised crime in Europe Methodological Annex. Methodological Annex of the Final Report of Project OCP Organised Crime Portfolio. Trento: Transcrime Università degli Studi di Trento. 1 Table of contents Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 A1. METHODOLOGICAL ANNEX PART 1 ....................................................................................................................................... 4 A1.1. Illicit markets in Europe: general methodological notes ......................................................................................................... 4 A1.2. Methodology for estimating the revenues of illicit markets ................................................................................................... 11 A1.2.1. Illicit drugs market ..................................................................................................................................................... 11 A1.2.2. Illicit trafficking in firearms .......................................................................................................................................... 14 A1.2.3. Illicit trade in tobacco products................................................................................................................................... 15 A1.2.4. Counterfeiting ............................................................................................................................................................ 17 A1.2.5. MTIC Fraud ............................................................................................................................................................... 21 A1.3. Background data for tables and maps in Part 1 ................................................................................................................... 22 A1.4. Methodology of Chapter 6: From the generation of illicit proceeds to the investment in the legal economy .......................... 30 A2. METHODOLOGICAL ANNEX PART 2 ..................................................................................................................................... 33 A2.1. The collection and organisation of information on organised crime investments .................................................................. 33 A3. METHODOLOGICAL ANNEX PART 3 ..................................................................................................................................... 40 A3.1. Assessment of the availability of data on confiscated assets in Europe ............................................................................... 40 A3.2. The organisation of data on confiscated assets ................................................................................................................... 45 A4. METHODOLOGICAL ANNEX – OCP COUNTRIES ................................................................................................................. 47 A4.1. Finland ................................................................................................................................................................................ 47 A4.2. France ................................................................................................................................................................................ 49 A4.3. Ireland ................................................................................................................................................................................. 51 A4.4. Italy ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 53 A4.5. The Netherlands ................................................................................................................................................................. 58 A4.6. Spain .................................................................................................................................................................................. 66 A4.7. United Kingdom .................................................................................................................................................................. 71 References ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 73 2 Introduction This methodological annex describes the methodology adopted to collect, organise, classify and analyse the information used in the main OCP report. It provides further details with respect to the information already provided in the main report (Chapter 2). In particular this annex includes: A description (Section A1.1) of the data on estimates and actors of illicit markets used in Part 1, and in particular of: - What and how many sources were collected; - How information was organised into a database; - How organised crime groups were defined and classified; - How geographic areas were classified. A detailed description of the methodology used by Transcrime to estimate, specifically for the purpose of Project OCP, the revenues of selected illicit markets: illicit drugs (A1.2.1), illicit trafficking in firearms (A1.2.2), illicit trade in tobacco products (A1.2.3), counterfeiting (A1.2.4) and MTIC fraud (A1.2.5). These estimates are reported and discussed in Part 1 of the main report and in particular in Chapters 3 and 4; A detailed description (Section 0) of the model developed to estimate the portion of the illicit proceeds generated by the heroin market available for investment in the legal economy (Chapter 6 of the main report) An illustration (see Section A2.1) of the data and information used in Part 2 for the analysis of organised crime investments, and in particular concerning: - What sources were collected in each OCP country; - How information was organised into a database (Database on Organised Crime Investments - DOCI) - How types of assets were classified; - How business sectors were classified; The questionnaire (see Section A3.1) developed by the OCP research team and administered to European asset recovery agencies to assess the availability of data on confiscated assets in Europe, reported in Part 3 of the report. Finally, a detailed illustration of some OCP country-specific methodological issues: - Finland (A4.1); - France (0); - Ireland (A4.3); - Italy (A4.4); - Netherlands (A4.5); - Spain (A4.6); - United Kingdom (A4.7). To be noted that some methodological remarks considered crucial for full understanding of the results of OCP analyses have already been provided in the main report, in particular in Chapter 2 (e.g. definition and classification of organised crime groups). This annex makes brief references to these parts while providing further details on other methodological issues. 3 A1. METHODOLOGICAL ANNEX PART 1 The following Sections referring to Part 1 of the main report present the methodology used to study illicit market proceeds and OCG involvement. The starting point of the analysis was a review of existing studies and estimates of illicit markets focusing on the European geographical area and in particular the 7 OCP countries. The collection and the organisation of this existing information are presented in Section A1.1. When estimates of the illicit markets were not available, new ones were made for selected markets. The methodology employed to develop new estimates is presented in Section A1.2. Finally, Section 0 provides indications on the methodology employed to estimate the portion of the illicit proceeds generated by the heroin market which is available for investment in the legal economy (see Chapter 6 of the main report). A1.1. Illicit markets in Europe: general methodological notes Definition of organised crime groups See Chapter 2 of the main report. Selection of illicit markets See Chapter 2 of the main report. Based on the list of serious crimes reported by art. 83(1) of the TFEU (Euro crimes), Project OCP has focused on 10 illicit markets and criminal activities considered central for the economy of organised crime groups from both a financial and strategic point of view. The criminal activities considered are: Illicit drugs market