MEDRC Series of R&D Reports MEDRC Project: 16-JS-040 THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SIMULATION OF THE HYDROLOGICAL WATER BUDGET FOR YARMOUK RIVER BASIN UNDER CURRENT AND PROJECTED FUTURE CLIMATE M. Sc. Thesis Submitted By Alham Walid Saud Al-Shurafat Principal Investigator Prof. Fayez A. Abdullah Jordan University of Science and Technology Middle East Desalination Research Center Muscat, Sultanate of Oman 2016 THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SIMULATION OF THE HYDROLOGICAL WATER BUDGET FOR YARMOUK RIVER BASIN UNDER CURRENT AND PROJECTED FUTURE CLIMATE THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SIMULATION OF THE HYDROLOGICAL WATER BUDGET FOR YARMOUK RIVER BASIN UNDER CURRENT AND PROJECTED FUTURE CLIMATE By Alham Walid Saud Al-Shurafat Advisor Prof. Fayez A. Abdullah Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of M.Sc. in Civil Engineering At The Faculty of Graduate Studies Jordan University of Science and Technology December, 2016 THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SIMULATION OF THE HYDROLOGICAL WATER BUDGET FOR YARMOUK RIVER BASIN UNDER CURRENT AND PROJECTED FUTURE CLIMATE By Alham Walid Saud Al-Shurafat Signature of Author ……………………… Committee Member Signature and Date Prof. Fayez A. Abdulla (Chairman) ……………………… Prof. Wa’il Abu-El-Sha’r (Member) ……………………… Prof. Hani A. Abu Qdais (Member) ……………………… Prof. Nezar A. Al-Hammouri (External Examiner) ……………………… December, 2016 تفويض نحن الموقعين أدناه، نتعهد بمنح جامعة العلوم والتكنولوجيا اﻷردنية حرية التصرر يرن ن رر محترو الرسررالة المامعيررة، بحيرر قعررود حكرروا الملكيررة ال كريررة لرسررالة الماج ررتير الرر المامعررة ويررا الكرروانين واﻷنظمة والتعليمات المتعلكة بالملكية ال كرية وبراءة اﻻختراع. الم ر الرئيس الطالب أ. د. فايز احمد عبدهللا الهام وليد سعود الشرفات التوقيع والتاريخ الرقم المامعن والتوقيع 20133023018 .................................. .................................. .................................. DEDICATION To my precious Father Walid and to my Mother Mariam I ACKNOWLEDGMENT At the outset, I thank God Almighty for giving me the confidence and strength to finish the master program which culminated in this thesis. During the two years I spent in the master's program, I have gained the knowledge and support of many people who will always have a special place in my memory. No words enough to express my deepest gratitude for my supervisor Prof. Fayez Al Abdullah on his guidance and continuous support during this phase of my life as well as his believe in me when I didn’t even believe in myself. My deepest sincere thanks and appreciations to my professors are also not-expressible who I had the honor to be schooled under their hands. I would like to specifically thank the examining members of the Committee Prof. Wa’il Abu-El-Sha’r and Prof. Hani A. Abu Qdais from the Civil Engineering Department and Professor Nezar A. Al-Hammouri from the Hashemite University who I had the honor to have their presence in this important step in my life. I would like to thank the Civil Engineering Department staff at Jordan University of Science and Technology, especially Dr. Samer Talozi who has helped me a lot, and I greatly would like to thank my wonderful friends and colleagues for their help and support and to the special ones Mohammad Jamous, Mohammad Telfah, Nusaibah, Tassnem, Manal, We’am, Isra’a, Tamara, Amneh, and Rushdi. Many grateful thanks to the Middle East Desalination Research Center (MEDRIC) for enhancing my educational experience and financing me while my working on the thesis letting me abler to focus more on my courses and thesis. I would love to thank gratefully the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) and Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ) for their cooperation and providing me with all the necessary data and feedback. I want to express my gratitude and my love for my family members who have long halt beside me and supported me in every way, thanks to my precious mother Mariam, father Walid, grandmother Salma, wonderful sisters Salma, Nussaibah and Saba’ and my brothers Saud and Abdul Rahman as well as my loving aunts. II TABLE OF CONTENTS Title Page DEDICATION I ACKNOWLEDGEMENT II TABLE OF CONTENTS III LIST OF FIGURES VI LIST OF TABLES X LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS XII ABSTRACT XIII Chapter One: Introduction 1 1.1 Problem Statement and Significance 1 1.2 Thesis Objectives 2 1.3 Thesis Structure 2 Chapter Two: Literature Review 4 2.1 Climate Change 4 2.1.1 Climate Change Phenomena 4 2.1.2 Climate Change Mitigation 6 2.2 Downscaling 8 2.3 Hydrologic Modeling 9 2.4 Related Studies to the Study Area 10 Chapter Three: Study Area, Data Sets and 13 Methodologies 3.1 Study Area 13 3.2 Data Sets 15 3.2.1 Basin Delineation 15 3.2.2 Basin-Scale Observed Climate Data (Predictands) 15 3.2.3 Large-scale Atmospheric Variables (Predictors) 18 3.2.4 Yarmouk River Discharge Data 21 III Title Page 3.2.5 Land Cover and Soil Data 22 3.2.6 The Dams Data 24 3.3 Methodologies 25 3.3.1 Data Sets Preparation 25 3.3.1.1 Jordanian Data Sets Inspection 25 3.3.1.2 Developing Daily PRCP Series for Syrian Stations 26 3.3.2 Trend Analysis 27 3.3.2.1 Mann-Kendall (MK) Trend Test 27 3.3.2.2 Sen’ Estimator Approach (TSA) 28 3.3.3 SDSM Downscaling 29 3.3.3.1 SDSM Model Description 29 3.3.3.2 Screening of Predictors 31 3.3.3.3 SDSM Calibration and Validation 32 3.3.3.4 Uncertainty Analysis 35 3.3.3.5 Future Climate Change Scenarios Generation 35 3.3.4 SWAT Hydrologic Modeling 36 3.3.4.1 Hydrologic Model Description 36 3.3.4.2 Setting up SWAT 38 3.3.4.2.1 Pre-Development Conditions 38 3.3.4.2.2 Post-Development Conditions 39 3.3.4.3 Calibration, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis 39 Chapter Four: Precipitation and Temperature Trend 43 Detection 4.1 Annual PRCP, Tmax and Tmin Autocorrelation 43 4.2 Double-Mass Curve Analysis for Daily PRCP 44 4.3 Trends in PRCP, Tmax, and Tmin 46 Chapter Five: Downscaling and Scenarios Projection 49 5.1 Downscaling Using SDSM 49 5.1.1 Screening NCEP Predictors 49 IV Title Page 5.1.2 Calibration 51 5.1.3 Validation Using NCEP Predictors 52 5.1.3.1 PRCP Validation 52 5.1.3.2 Tmax and Tmin Validation 56 5.2 Uncertainty Analysis of Current Climate Reproduction 58 5.2.1 Uncertainties in PRCP 58 5.2.2 Uncertainties in Tmax and Tmin 16 5.2.3 Equality of Median 67 5.3 Climate Change Projections 67 Chapter Six: Hydrologic Response Evaluation 74 6.1 Sensitivity Analysis, Calibration, and Validation 74 6.1.1 Pre-Development Conditions 74 6.1.2 Post-Development Conditions 80 6.2 Climate Change Impacts 84 6.2.1 Pre-Development Conditions 84 6.2.2 Post-Development Conditions 93 6.3 Adaptation Measures 95 Chapter Seven: Summary, Conclusions, and 97 Recommendations 7.1 Summary 97 7.2 Conclusions 97 7.3 Recommendations 98 References 99 Abstract in Arabic Language 110 V LIST OF FIGURES Figure Description Page 3.1 Location map of Yarmouk River Basin (YRB) 14 3.2 Mean monthly climate diagram of YRB as observed (1981-2009) 15 3.3 The YRB meteorological stations that have been used in the 16 study 3.4 CO2 concentrations in ppm that used do drive climate change 19 scenario simulations by the IPCC (Sillmann 2013) 3.5 CGCM3 and CanESM2 data grid boxes that overlaid YRB 20 3.6 A map shows the land use within the YRB 22 3.7 A map shows the soil types within YRB based on FAO soil map 23 3.8 A map showing the main modeled dams in the YRB during the 24 study period 3.9 SDSM climate scenario generation general steps (Wilby 2002) 31 3.10 Thiessen polygons network for the whole YRB 36 3.11 General hydrological cycle of the historical YRB (Burdon 1954) 40 4.1 The lag-1 serial correlation coefficient (푟1) and its upper and 44 lower limits of the confidence interval at 0.05 significance level for annual PRCP, Tmax and Tmin (1981-2009) 4.2 Double-mass curves (DMCs) of accumulative PRCP for the 45 Jordanian stations 4.3 70 years’ records of PRCP at Irbid station 47 4.4 37 years’ records of Tmax at Irbid station 47 4.5 37 years’ records of Tmin at Irbid station 48 5.1 Monthly Mean_PRCP time series comparison between observed 53 and downscaled PRCP using NCEP predictors (1996-2000) 5.2 Comparison of mean indices between observed and downscaled 54 PRCP using NCEP during the validation (1996-2000) VI Figure Description Page 5.3 Comparison of extreme indices between observed and 55 downscaled PRCP using NCEP through the 5 years’ validation period (1996-2000) 5.4 Frequency analysis for annual maximum daily PRCP between 56 observed and downscaled PRCP using NCEP (1996-2000) 5.5 Comparison of mean indices between observed and downscaled 56 Tmax and Tmin using NCEP through the 5 years’ validation period (1996-2000) 5.6 Comparison of extreme indices between observed and 57 downscaled Tmax and Tmin using NCEP through the 5 years’ validation period (1996-2000) 5.7 Monthly PRCP time series comparison between observed and 58 downscaled PRCP using GCMs (1981-2000) 5.8 Comparison of mean indices between observed and downscaled 59 PRCP using GCMs (1981-2000) 5.9 Comparison of extreme indices between observed and 60 downscaled PRCP using the GCMs (1981-2000) 5.10 Frequency analysis for annual maximum daily PRCP between 61 observed and downscaled PRCP using GCMs (1981-2000) 5.11 Mean monthly time series comparison between observed and 63 downscaled Tmax and Tmin using GCMs (1981-2000) 5.12 Comparison of mean indices between observed and downscaled 64 Tmax and Tmin using GCMs through 20 years’ uncertainty analysis (1981-2000) 5.13 Comparison of extremes indices between observed and 65 downscaled Tmax and Tmin using GCMs (1981-2000) 5.14 Frequency analysis for annual mean Tmax and Tmin between 66 observed and downscaled series for the period