Connectedness in times of ecological overshoot Citation for published version (APA): Figge, L. S. (2017). Connectedness in times of ecological overshoot: a quantitative analysis of the sustainability of globalization. Datawyse / Universitaire Pers Maastricht. https://doi.org/10.26481/dis.20170929lf Document status and date: Published: 01/01/2017 DOI: 10.26481/dis.20170929lf Document Version: Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Please check the document version of this publication: • A submitted manuscript is the version of the article upon submission and before peer-review. There can be important differences between the submitted version and the official published version of record. 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Printing: Datawyse | Universitaire Pers Maastricht ISBN 978 94 6159 745 8 UMP UNIVERSITAIRE PERS MAASTRICHT Connectedness in times of Ecological Overshoot: A quantitative analysis of the sustainability of globalization DISSERTATION to obtain the degree of Doctor at Maastricht University, on the authority of the Rector Magnificus, Prof. Dr. Rianne M. Letschert in accordance with the decision of the Board of Deans, to be defended in public on Friday, 29 September 2017, at 10.00 hours by Lukas Simeon Figge Supervisor Prof. dr. Pim Martens Co-supervisor Dr. Astrid Offermans Assessment Committee Prof. dr. Marc Davidson (Maastricht University, Chair) Prof. dr. Harro van Lente (Maastricht University) Prof. dr. Noel Gaston (Adelaide, South Australia) Dr. Axel Marx (KU Leuven) CONTENTS Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1 Sustainable globalization 3 1.1 Background and context 5 1.2 Research aims, objectives and research questions 10 1.3 Research strategy and key methodologies 11 1.4 Outline of the thesis 12 Chapter 2 New directions in globalization indices 15 2 Introduction 17 2.1 Globalization and its measurement 18 2.2 Concepts to be measured 19 2.3 Dimensions of measurement 22 2.4 Unit of measurement 24 2.5 A way forward 27 Chapter 3 Globalization continues: The Maastricht Globalization 29 Index revisited and updated 3 Introduction 31 3.1 Components of the MGI 32 3.2 Calculation of the MGI 37 3.3 Results 41 3.4 Discussion and conclusions 48 Chapter 4 The effects of globalization on Ecological Footprints: an 49 empirical analysis using the Maastricht Globalization Index 4 Introduction 51 4.1 Literature review 52 4.2 Method and data 55 4.3 Results and discussion 59 4.4 Conclusions 64 Appendix 4 65 Chapter 5 Determinants of Ecological Footprints: what is the role 71 of globalization? An empirical analysis using the KOF Index of Globalization 5 Introduction 73 5.1 Literature review and hypotheses 73 5.2 Methods 77 5.3 Results 83 5.4 Discussion and conclusions 88 Appendix 5 91 Chapter 6 The sustainability of globalization: 97 Including the ‘social robustness criterion’ 6 Introduction: sustainable globalization? 99 6.1 The social robustness criterion and Cultural Theory 100 6.2 Methods 104 6.3 Results 109 6.4. Discussion and conclusions 113 Appendix 6 115 Chapter 7 Conclusion, Discussion & Epilogue 117 7.1 Conclusion: What have we learned? 119 7.2 Discussion 124 7.3 Epilogue 128 References 129 Summary 137 Valorization addendum 140 Acknowledgements 144 About the author 146 “Science of the past is a description, for the future a belief; it is not and has never been, an explanation, if by this word is meant that science shows the necessity of any sequence of perceptions” Karl Pearson, mathematician and statistician CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1 “The trends that are shaping the twenty-first-century world embody both promise and peril. Globalization, for example, has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty while contributing to social fragmentation and a massive increase in inequality, not to mention serious environmental damage.” Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum 2 1 Sustainable globalization Sustainable Development which is defined as “development that meets the needs of the present while safeguarding Earth’s life support system, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends” (Griggs et al., 2013), remains one of the greatest challenges for humanity in the 21st century. According to the Ecological Foot- print Atlas (Ewing et al., 2010), we have lived in a state of ecological overshoot since the 1970s, which means that human demands have exceeded the Earth’s biocapacity (WWF (2014) and Fig 1.1).1 Human demands alter ecosystems by creating ecological pressures such as land-use changes, resource extraction and depletion (such as defor- estation and overfishing), emissions of waste and pollution and the modification and movement of organisms (Steffen et al., 2005; UNEP, 2012a). The resulting environmen- tal impacts on Earth’s life support system include, but are not limited to, climate change, land degradation, loss of biodiversity, and pollution. Consequences on humans affect primarily the very poor and vulnerable populations in developing countries through, for instance, famine, water shortages, and competition over resources (Field et al., 2014). The same period has experienced increasing globalization (See figure 1.1). Since the 1950s, economic exchange, institutional change, political affairs and the global envi- ronment have become increasingly inter-twined across various dimensions of human relations. Increased global economic integration is manifesting itself in greater interna- tional movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. Ad- vances in communication, transportation and mobility technologies result in greater international cultural exchanges, and promote cultural diversity both within and be- tween countries. Migration, both legal and illegal, and tourism further contribute to the 21st century socio-cultural melting pot. New and enhanced forms of governance, legal systems and institutions come into existence, which often transcend nation-states, connecting people in novel ways. According to Jones (2010), there is agreement among key thinkers that contemporary globalization is the continuation of long-term developments of increasing societal inte- gration at the global level while also exhibiting features that are qualitatively different from previous times. In the broadest sense, globalization is defined as “the growing interconnectedness and inter-relatedness of all aspects of society” (Jones, 2010). Add- 1 In 2013 the total global Ecological Footprint was 20 billion gha, with an EF per capita of 2.87 gha and bio- capacity only 12 billion gha or 1.71 gha per capita, data available at http://data.footprintnetwork.org/ Empirically, the overshoot is the carbon dioxide that is not taken up by land and hence contributes to ath- mospheric degradation and climate change. In 2017, Earth Overshoot Day was on 02 August. 3 ing trans-dimensionality and trans-scalarity, we define contemporary globalization as “the intensification of cross-national interactions that promote the establishment of trans-national structures and the global integration of cultural, economic, ecological, political, technological and social processes on global, supra-national, national, regional and local levels” (Rennen & Martens, 2003). Figure 1.1: global trends in Globalization and Ecological Footprint for the 1961 – 2013 period 21 55 19 17 50 15 45 13 11 40 Globalization Score Globalization EF and Biocap in billion gha billion in Biocap EF and 9 35 7 5 30 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Biocapacity Ecological Footprint Globalization Note: global EF and biocapacity measured in gha (billion), difference between EF and biocapacity is the eco- logical overshoot; Globalization is the global average score as measured by the KOF index, the