ENTHUSIASM AND SCEPTICISM: THE BULGARIAN ECONOMISTS AND EUROPE (1878-1944) Nikolay Nenovsky University of Amiens, France [email protected] and Pencho Penchev University of World and National Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria [email protected] (Very preliminary draft) Introduction Pre-history The process of integration of Bulgarian lands in the European economy began decades before the liberation of the country from the Ottoman rule (1878) without being formally sanctioned by treaty, convention, agreement, etc. It is an integral part of the overall process of globalization which began after the end of Napoleonic wars in 1815. The integration is driven by many factors, but among the most important are the Industrial revolution and the impact of the new equipment and technologies, reduction of transport costs, the establishment of relative peace in Europe, the gradual diminishing of the mercantilist practices, etc. (Broadberry and O'Rourke ed., 2010, pp. 99-101). Specifically for Bulgarian lands up to the liberation this process is connected with the consequences of dynamic industrial development of Western and Central Europe, the trade expansion of industrial and newly industrialized countries in the world, the perception of the liberal principles of free trade and lower tariffs, elimination of monopolies and privileges. This integration is clearly visible in the railway construction in the Ottoman Empire, opening the Black Sea and Danube River for international trade, the penetration of foreign industrial goods and traders in the markets of the empire, etc. Formally the foreign trade policy of the Ottoman Empire looks different in comparison to the general trends of trade liberalization in the first half of the 19th century. Until 1838, according to trade contracts signed by the High Porte the maximum import duty is 3%, and after that the Ottoman authorities managed to gain the right to raise tariffs up to 5%. Simultaneously, however, they abolished a number of monopolies and restrictions on trade in the empire thus facilitating its integration into the global and European markets (Broadberry and O'Rourke ed., 2010, r.101). These processes give impetus to economic development and overall modernization of the Bulgarian lands (Palare, 2005). However, the transformations induced by them are not entirely painless. The integration of Bulgarian lands with European and world markets leads to prosperity in certain regions and sectors, but also to inevitable decline of some traditional crafts. The above mentioned socio-economic processes are relatively spontaneous and cause the first attempts for understanding them by individual representatives of Bulgarian intelligentsia. During the third quarter of the 19th century in their reflections and analyses on the effects of the integration of Bulgarian lands in European economy two main motives are discernible. First, they suggest that as a result of the economic integration with Europe Bulgaria would overcome its obvious backwardness and reach a level of development typical at least for the average European countries. To the representatives of the pre-liberation intelligentsia Europe became a symbol of civility in economic, social and political terms. The second motive, however, is completely different. The Bulgarians are suspicious about the effects of integration because of the fear that economic interests and trade policies of developed European countries will somehow retard Bulgarian economic progress. That is why before the liberation the first warnings about the possible conversion of the Bulgarian lands in the colony are raised. The ideas for limiting the consumption of "Western" goods and for buying Bulgarian production, for introduction of customs protectionism by means of which to protect the endangered local production and to create conditions for the encouragement of local industry (Penchev, 2016) increased their popularity. It is not clear whether these ideas are a result of an independent analysis or just an imitation and interpretation of foreign (European) concepts. Surely it can be argued that in terms of the history of economic thought, they are not original. In 1841, the German economist Friedrich List published his famous work "The National System of Political Economy", which justifies the necessity for protectionism in national economic policy in underdeveloped countries, which is justified only to the point when the level of industrialization of advanced economies is reached (List, 1856 [1841]). Three are no direct references to F. List in the works of Bulgarian pre-liberation intellectuals. Apparently the socio-economic conditions in the Balkans in the last 2-3 decades before liberation are similar to those of Germany in the beginning of the 19th century, and this resulted in the emergence and popularity of similar ideas. They remained an essential part of the matrix of the Bulgarian attitude towards attempts to Balkan and European economic integration after 1878. The Bulgarian economists and the ideas for economic integration from the Liberation to the end of WWI After the liberation of Bulgaria from Ottoman rule шге attitude of the representatives of Bulgarian intellectuals to Europe and to European economic model remains ambiguous. Gradually, within the intelligentsia is formed a group with specialized professional training and scientific interests in economics. The first economic periodicals are published and voluntary organizations are formed, which are instrumental for the impact of this group on the public policy. Among the most influential and long existing organizations of this type is the Bulgarian Economic Society founded in 1895. One of the main reasons for the establishment the Society is the attempt to restrict foreign (mostly European) competition to the Bulgarian producers (Marinova, 2012). From 1896 it publishes the Journal of Bulgarian Economic Society, which for a long period is the most prestigious economic magazine in the country. 1897 Ts. Kalyandzhiev, who in 1920 became the founder and first rector of the Higher School of Commerce in Varna, wrote that the Ottoman Empire was destroyed by the penetration of European civilization and culture. This in turn has had positive effects, because after the liberation of Romania, Serbia and Bulgaria "The East, which was the symbol of laziness and inactivity gradually is emancipating from this and is becoming an extension of Western Europe" (Kalyandzhiev, 1897: 152). This process, however, is hindered by that same Europe, which according to the author does not allow for the development of the Balkan economies and strives to keep Bulgaria in the position of a supplier of agricultural raw materials for its industry. According to Kalyandzhiev’s definition after the liberation of the Ottomans Bulgaria is in the colony with political independence (Kalyandzhiev, 1897: 154). This perception of Bulgarians towards Europe is to some extend an inheritance from the Ottoman period, but also a result of the new realities in the European and world economy. Bulgaria's liberation comes at a time when trade liberalization, globalization and economic integration reached its peak for the 19th century. The Principality of Bulgaria inherited from the Ottoman Empire a relatively liberal trade regime and began its independent existence with limited opportunities for independent trade and economic policy. Right at the end of the 1870s there is a clear trend of a return to protectionism in Europe. Among the most important reasons that caused it is the import of cheap American and Russian grain on the markets in Western Europe, which in turn caused a negative reaction to interests of the local large agricultural producers. Reducing the price of corn has a negative impact on those European economies that are not industrialized too. The revenues of local small grain producers are reduced, which in turn reduced government revenues and caused many social problems. Among the main elements of the return to protectionism trend in Europe are the protectionist tariffs introduced in Germany by Bismarck in 1879, raising of the French tariffs in France during the 1880s and in 1892, the increase of import duties Italy in 1887, in Sweden in 1888 and 1892, etc. Various forms of tariff protectionism is introduced also in Austria-Hungary, Russia and Spain (Bairoch, 1989). An expression of this trend, are the so-called tariff wars of the late 19th and early 20th century. They are a result of the willingness of the government of a given country unilaterally to introduce higher tariffs. Among the most famous wars of this type are those between France and Italy (1888-1889), Germany and Russia (1892-1894), France and Switzerland (1892-1895), Austro-Hungary and Romania (1886-1891), the famous "pig war" between Austria-Hungary and Serbia (1906-1908) and others. (Irwin, 1993; Edie, 1977; Lorscheider, 1976). Under the terms of Berlin treaty (which ended the Russo-Turkish war of 1877-1878), Bulgaria's capacity for independent customs policy is strictly limited. The country inherited the relatively liberal trade regime of the empire. However, the general trends typical for the European and world economy has their impact in the newly established Principality. The peculiarities of the Bulgarian economy - underdeveloped, subsistent agricultural economy, decline of traditional crafts and practical lack of industry, lack of capital and entrepreneurial experience, limited resources etc. determine the main directions of economic policy pursued by various governments.