C O R P O R A T I O N MICHAEL J. MAZARR, BRYAN FREDERICK, JOHN J. DRENNAN, EMILY ELLINGER, KELLY EUSEBI, BRYAN ROONEY, ANDREW STRAVERS, EMILY YODER Understanding Influence in the Strategic Competition with China For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA290-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0642-2 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Over the past two decades, China’s role in the geopolitical landscape has grown, particularly as a result of the country’s rising economic and military power. Thus, U.S. leaders now view China as a strategic competitor—one that seeks to upend the post–World War II liberal inter- national order. An integral part of this competition is the contest for influence in the interna- tional system. This report examines China’s drive for power and influence around the world and the results of those efforts. More specifically, we assess China’s ability to use various mech- anisms of influence to shape the policies and behavior of the 20 countries examined, as well as the lessons that these examples offer for the wider issue of influence in the United States’ strategic competition with China. With this study, we aim to produce a transferable frame- work and other tools of analysis that can provide reliable means of assessing bilateral influence relationships in other cases. The research to assess the factors described in this report was completed in mid-2020. The analysis here does not evaluate developments after that time. However, as of June 2021, we continue to believe that the basic findings in the report remain valid. The research reported here was completed in June 2020 and underwent security review with the sponsor and the Defense Office of Prepublication and Security Review before public release. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. It was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD), which operates the National Defense Research Institute (NDRI), a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense intelligence enterprise. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures and Tables .............................................................................................vii Summary ........................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments ............................................................................................xiii Abbreviations ...................................................................................................xv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO Defining Power and Influence ............................................................................... 5 Modern Conceptions of Power ................................................................................. 5 Types and Categories of Power ................................................................................. 9 Power in International Relations ..............................................................................10 Concepts and Definitions: Influence .........................................................................12 Existing Literature on Influence ..............................................................................14 Theoretical Review: Lessons and Implications ..............................................................17 CHAPTER THREE Framework for Assessing Chinese Influence .............................................................19 Framework Components and Variables ......................................................................19 Methodological Challenges to Measuring Influence ...................................................... 23 CHAPTER FOUR Measuring Chinese Influence: Inputs .....................................................................25 Economic Variables: Trade and Foreign Direct Investment ...............................................25 Security Variables: Security Cooperation and Military Posture .......................................... 34 Diplomatic Variables: Programs and Activities ............................................................. 38 Informational Variables: State-Supported Broadcasting and Social Media Activities ..................41 Cultural Variables: Language Prevalence and Entertainment ............................................ 44 People-to-People Variables: Education ....................................................................... 48 CHAPTER FIVE Measuring Chinese Influence: Intervening Factors .....................................................51 Shared Values and Cultural Experiences ....................................................................52 Common Interests, Purposes, or Perceived Threats ........................................................55 v vi Understanding Influence in the Strategic Competition with China Implicit Societal Influence, or Soft Power .................................................................. 60 Mastery of the Local Context in the Targeted State ........................................................62 Vulnerability of the Targeted State to Outside Influence ................................................. 66 Domestic and International Context .........................................................................72 Conclusions ......................................................................................................73 CHAPTER SIX Measuring Chinese Influence: Outputs ...................................................................75 Public Opinion Variables .......................................................................................75 Output Analysis .................................................................................................78 CHAPTER SEVEN Case Studies of Chinese Influence-Seeking ..............................................................81 Australia ......................................................................................................... 84 Greece ........................................................................................................... 87 Japan ..............................................................................................................89 Maldives ..........................................................................................................91 Mongolia ........................................................................................................ 94 New Zealand ................................................................................................... 96 Norway .......................................................................................................... 98 The Philippines ................................................................................................ 101 South Korea ................................................................................................... 103 Sri Lanka ....................................................................................................... 106 Taiwan .......................................................................................................... 108 Thailand........................................................................................................ 111 CHAPTER EIGHT Historical Influence Case: Finland in the Cold War .................................................. 115 The Foundations of Soviet Influence in Finland .......................................................... 115 Degree of Soviet Influence ..................................................................................