University for Peace Universidad para la Paz Linking Natural Capital, Rural Livelihoods, and Conflict: Toward Governance for Environmental Security and Peace in Tajikistan Photo 0.a, Bakhrom-aka, Rural Farmer, Shows Off His Wheat Harvest (Stucker, 2001) Author Project Supervisor Dominic Stucker Tom Deligiannis Submitted the 25th of October 2006 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of a Master’s Degree of Arts in Environmental Security and Peace at the University for Peace, headquartered in Ciudad Colón, Costa Rica. © All Rights Reserved. Abstract Linkages between natural capital and rural livelihoods have not been adequately studied in analyses of conflict in Central Asia. Environmental degradation and depletion in predominantly rural and agricultural regions contribute to increased social conflict, as well as increased potential for violent conflict. In many cases, especially in those with authoritarian governments, lack of environmental governance capacity in the public, civil society, and business sectors is largely responsible for creating and condoning a context in which processes of natural capital loss occur. This research paper focuses on Tajikistan, an impoverished, agricultural, and mountainous country located in southeastern Central Asia. It concludes that loss of natural capital in Tajikistan has compromised rural livelihood options and contributed to the emergence of unsustainable livelihood strategies, social conflict, especially gender inequity, and - in combination with other factors such as high rural population growth and a significant youth bulge; high unemployment of young men and women; and regionalism - a heightened probability of renewed violent conflict. Efforts to strengthen capacity for environmental governance and promote peace are underway, but require additional support, information, and guidance. In order to be successful, development efforts must help decentralize national decision-making structures and processes; replace regionalism-based appointments and hiring practices with democratic elections and professionalism; disentangle the government and business sectors; empower small and medium sized businesses and the civil society sector; and ensure that structures and processes of environmental governance in Tajikistan are legitimate, accountable, transparent, knowledgeable, efficient, and self-sustaining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i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– /(#1#)6++#1.' ;#"#/#6(+6-%/6+1./# –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ii Acknowledgements I am very grateful for the patience, support, and insight that my wife, Abigail, offered me throughout our studies at the University for Peace in Costa Rica. In particular, she helped me to identify and clarify my master’s project topic, and taught me the importance of gender in analyses of poverty and conflict. This project would have been lacking without her critical questions and constructive feedback. Tom Deligiannis, my project advisor, professor, and friend, pushed me to ask the difficult questions, delve deeply into the problems at hand, and engage in rigorous analysis. I am thankful for his encouragement and sincere belief in my potential. I am also grateful to Mahmoud Hamid of the University for Peace; Peter Stoett of Concordia University, Canada; and Mersie Ejigu of the Foundation for Environmental Security and Sustainability, USA for their feedback on early drafts of this project. Friends in Central Asia were also of great support to me in my research. In particular, Elena Em, Muhiba Rabejanova, and Zamira Yusufjonova put me in contact with Central Asian experts and professionals working in international organizations in Tajikistan. My sincere thanks to American University of Central Asia Professors Emil Juraev and John Heathershaw in Bishkek; Vera Narodnitzkaia, Director of the University for Peace’s Central Asia Program in Geneva; Tahmina Rahmatova of German Agro Action, Khujand; Vadim Sadonshoev of Khorog; and Takhmina Shokirova of the Organization for Cooperation and Security, Dushanbe. I also appreciate Elena Em for translating my abstract into Russian and Marifat Chapoteau for translating it into Tajik. Finally, I am indebted to my classmates, the University for Peace’s first graduates in the Environmental Security and Peace Master’s program. We learned a great deal from one another and became good friends over the past year. Thank you Izabella Blicharska, Esan Cadogan, Elena Em, Wendy Geise, Yan He, Gabe Lavoie, Gladys Martinez, and Mustapha Seidu. You are all very special to me. iii Table of Contents Abstract in English, Tajik, and Russian i Acknowledgements iii Table of Contents iv List of Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Russian and Tajik Terms vi List of Figures, Maps, and Photographs viii Chapter 1 Introduction and Research Approach 1.1 Personal Inspiration for Research 1 1.2 Rationale for Research 2 1.3 Research and Strategy Questions 6 1.4 Research Approach 7 Chapter 2 Literature Review: Causes of Conflict in Central Asia 2.1 Defining Conflict 9 2.2 Militant Islam and Authoritarian Governments 11 2.2.1 Competing Ideologies 2.2.2 Physical and Political Landscape 2.2.3 Drug Trade 2.3 Ethnic Tensions 21 2.3.1 Inherited Borders and Natural Resources 2.4 Regionalism and Civil War in Tajikistan 24 2.4.1 Brief History of Clan Politics 2.4.2 Present-day Regional Networks 2.5 Poverty 31 2.5.1 Causes of Poverty 2.5.2 Natural Capital Loss and Unsustainable Livelihoods Chapter 3 Sustainable Livelihoods Analysis of Rural Tajikistan 3.1 Sustainable Livelihoods Framework 38 3.2 Rural Vulnerability Context 41 3.2.1 Shocks 3.2.2 Trends 3.2.3 Seasonality 3.3 Rural Livelihoods and Natural Capital 66 3.3.1 Income Mixes and Natural Capital Holdings among Pastoral and Farming Households 3.3.2 Natural Capital Loss and Compromised Livelihood Options 3.4 Transforming Structures and Processes 98 iv 3.4.1 Environmental Governance Structures 3.4.2 Environmental Governance Processes 3.5 Livelihood Strategies and Outcomes 110 3.5.1 Sustainable Rural Livelihood