THERMAL POLLUTION ABATEMENT EVALUATION MODEL FOR POWER PLANT SITING P. F. Shiers D. H. Marks Report #MIT-EL 73-013 February 1973 a" pO ENERGY LABORATORY The Energy Laboratory was established by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology as a Special Laboratory of the Institute for research on the complex societal and technological problems of the supply, demand and consumptionof energy. Its full-time staff assists in focusing the diverse research at the Institute to permit undertaking of long term interdisciplinary projects of considerable magnitude. For any specific program, the relative roles of the Energy Laboratory, other special laboratories, academic departments and laboratories depend upon the technologies and issues involved. Because close coupling with the nor- .ral academic teaching and research activities of the Institute is an important feature of the Energy Laboratory, its principal activities are conducted on the Institute's Cambridge Campus. This study was done in association with the Electric Power Systems Engineering Laboratory and the Department of Civil Engineering (Ralph H. Parsons Laboratory for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics and the Civil Engineering Systems Laboratory). -Offtl -. W% ABSTRACT A THERMAL POLLUTION ABATE.ENT EVALUATION MODEL FOR POWER PLANT SITING A thermal pollution abatement model for power plant siting is formulated to evaluate the economic costs, resource requirements, and physical characteristics of a particular thermal pollution abatement technology at a given site type for a plant alternative. The model also provides a screening capability to determine which sites are feasible alternatives for development by the calculation of the resource requirements and a check of the applicable thermal standards, and determining whether the plant alternative could be built on the available site in compliance with the thermal standards. The thermal pollution evaluation model analyzes the abatement technologies of surface discharge, diffuser, cooling pond, spray canal, and wet mechanical draft cooling towers. The typical site types evaluated are a river, small lake, great lake, coastal, estuary, offshore ocean, and water poor site. The model will be used in conjunction with a Plant Evaluation Model, which analyzes the effects of fuel costs and air pollution abatement, a Plant Expansion Model, and a Generation Expansion Model to determine the optimal operating and generating plan for an electric utility. The model may also be used in conjunction with the Plant Evaluation Model to evaluate the trade offs between the dollar cost of electric power generation, reliability, and air and thermal pollution. The model may also be used to determine, for a single plant site alternative, which abatement technologies would be feasible, and to make an economic and resource requirement compari- son between these alternatives. Finally, the model could be used to examine the economic and locational aspects of the implementation of a plan limiting the waste heat discharge to natural bodies to zero discharge. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The investigations described in this report were supported by a National Science Foundation Grant (GI-34936) as part of a research program at MIT entitled "Dynamics of Energy Systems". This support consisted of both a research assistantship and computer time. Also, during a portion of the work, Mr. Shiers held a traineeship from the Environmental Protection Agency, Grant Number 1 Pl-4P-303-01. Grateful acknowledgement is made for the finan- cial support of these agencies. This report essentially constitutes the master's thesis submitted by Mr. Shiers to the Civil Engineering Department entitled "A Thermal Pollution Evaluation Model for Power Plant Siting". A word of appreciation is also extended to Professor Donald R. F. Harleman for general guidance, along with Mr. Patrick Ryan, Mr. Eric Adams, Mr. Frederick Woodruff, Mr. Dennis Farrar, and Mr. Gerhard Jirka. All computer work was done at the MIT Information Processing Center. Special thanks are also extended to my wife, Pat, who typed this report with exceptional patience, skill and cheerfulness. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page TITLE PAGE 1 ABSTRACT 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 I. INTRODUCTION 7 A. Objectives 8 B. Outline. of the Thesis 12 II. THERMAL POLLUTION 15 A. Demand for Electric Power 15 B. Thermal Pollution 20 1. Definition of Thermal Pollution 20 2. Generation of Waste Heat 22 3. Temperature Standards and Criteria 28 4. Mixing Zones 68 5. Ecological Aspects of Thermal Pollution 79 6. Thermal Pollution Abatement Alternatives 84 7. Evaporative Losses 115 8. Effects on Alternate Water Uses 118 III. THERMAL POLLUTION AND POWER PLANT SITING 120 A. Economic Theory of Thermal Pollution Management 120 B. Development of Cost Aspects for Abatement Alternatives 127 1. Plant 130 2. Plant Operation 131 -4- F.isge 3. Waste Heat Disposal 131 4. Sumary 164 C. Physical Modeling 167 1. Physical Aspects 167 2. State of the Art in Physical Modeling 169 3. Models Selected for Study 186 IV. PLANT EVALUATION MODEL 251 A. Thermal Pollution Abatement Evaluation Model 251 1. State of the Art 254 2. Problem Formulation 264 3. Solution 277 B. Plant Evaluation Model 292 V. GENERATION EXPANSION MODEL 296 VI. CASE STUDY 303 A. Scope of Study 303 B. Test Problem 304 1. Test Data 304 2. Results of the Case Study 306 3. Comments 325 VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 330 LIST OF REFERENCES 333 LIST OF FIGURES 341 LIST OF TABLES 342 - 5 - Vag APPENDIXI Rcomendations .of STACon Water Quality CrIteria 344 APPENDIXII Reconeadations of NTACon Mixing Zones 349 - 6 - - eD CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION A study of an energy system is a quantitative analysis of demand, supply, and the technological, environmental, and institu- tional interactions within the system using an approach including analytical, economic, and simulation techniques to establish models which would be useful for planning or management. The National Science Foundation, through a grant for a program entitled "Dynamics of Energy Systems", has supported work here at M.I.T. which has resulted in the setting up of such a study for electrical energy. This system study relied heavily upon the use of mathematical models to analyze system behavior and policyimplications. The objectives of the study were twofold. The first objective was to give decision-makers more effective tools to analyze national energy policy questions and to evaluate the effects of regulatory actions, resource allocation, taxes, etc., on supply patterns which are consistent with national economic, environmental, and social goals. The second objective was to develop tools for a detailed regional or industry wide study to yield an insight into the technology needs and growth patterns required to meet social and economic requirements. Amongthe data and sub-models required within this study were the cost and technology requirements of the imposition of environ- mental standards, the effects of electrical energy use upon the natural environment, and the socio-economic factors, as best as they could be evaluated. An attempt was made in the study, therefore, -7- to understand the environmental effects of electrical energy use and then to use this knowledge in the development of models to be used in the planning and conducting of research and development on electrical energy technology. The development of energy models, and their verification and utilization, is a continuing process which evolves based on the analysis of past and present practices plus trial and error fitting of models to actual system performance. The magnitude of work involved in the development of such an electrical system study, however, is beyond the capability of a small group of people if original research is carried out for all the necessary steps of the study. However, in this case, fragments of research had been done previously, so that a substantial portion of the work involved collection, analysis, organization, and extension of previous work in related areas to fit the models. Thus, the models and the procedure for analysis developed in this study are suitable for handling the first estimates and evaluating alternatives for the electrical energy system. It should be noted, however, that the output of the study is simply tools and information for decision- makers, rather than policy recommendations. I. A. Objectives Among the problems resulting from the rapid expansion of the electrical energy system is the increasing discomfort caused by the deterioration of the environment. This adverse environmental impact, which has led to the adoption of new environmental quality standards, is the most significant disturbance in the electrical system today. The National Environmental Policy Act of '1969 resulted in much atten- tion being focused on the environmental impact of waste heat from thermal electric generating stations. The court decisions arising from the implementation of this Act have drastically altered both. the outlook and procedural requirements of both the federal regulatory agencies and the electric utilities concerning thermal discharge. In additional to considering the-environmental impact of a given planned action, the current requirements now include determining and compar- ing the environmental impacts of the alternatives to the planned action. The Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972, which has upheld the concept of water quality standards, includes: new requirements for discharge permits; requirements for the use of the best practicable and the best available