John Wall and Associates Market Analysis Newsom Commons Tax Credit (Sec. 42) Apartments Cheraw, South Carolina Chesterfield County Prepared For: Tri-State Development, Inc. February 2018 (Revised May 8, 2018) PCN: 17-110 Post Office Box 1835 Seneca, SC 29679 Telephone (864) 261-3147 [email protected] www.johnwallandassociates.com John Wall and Associates 2 1 Foreword market study terms. He was lead author for 1.1 Qualifications Statement NCHMA’s “Selecting Comparable John Wall and Associates specializes in Properties” best practices paper and also market analysis, data mapping, and analysis NCHMA’s “Field Work” white paper. In of troubled properties. The firm began in 2007, he wrote “Ten Things Developers 1983 concentrating on work in the Should Know About Market Studies” for Southeastern United States. In 1990, the Affordable Housing Finance Magazine. In office expanded its work to the entire 2014 Mr. Rogers authored the draft United States. NCHMA paper “Senior Housing Options”. John Wall and Associates has done over Joe Burriss has a Bachelor of Science degree 2,600 market analyses, the majority of these in Marketing from Clemson University, and being for apartment projects (both has been a market analyst with John Wall conventional and affordable). However, the and Associates since 1999. He has firm is equipped for, and has done many successfully completed the National other types of real estate market analyses, Council of Housing Market Analysts data mapping, troubled property analysis, (NCHMA) peer review process, and has shopping center master plans, industrial served as a member of the council’s park master plans, housing and membership committee. In addition to demographic studies, land planning performing market analysis, Mr. Burriss projects, site analysis, location analysis and maintains many of the firm’s client GIS projects. Clients include private relationships and is responsible for business developers, government officials, development. syndicators and lending institutions. 1.2 Release of Information John Wall and Associates is a charter This report shall not be released by John member of the National Council of Wall and Associates to persons other than Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA). All the client and his/her designates for a market analysts in our office have period of at least sixty (60) days. Other successfully passed the NCHMA peer arrangements can be made upon the client’s review process and possess their HUD request. MAP certificates. 1.3 Truth and Accuracy Bob Rogers has a BS in Business from Penn State University, and an MBA from the It is hereby attested to that the information University of Tennessee. He has been a contained in this report is true and market analyst with John Wall and accurate. The report can be relied upon as a Associates since 1992. He has served as Vice true assessment of the low income housing Chair and Co-Chair of the NCHMA rental market. However, no assumption of Standards Committee (from 2004 to 2010). liability is being made or implied. As Co-Chair, he led the revision of the NCHMA market study model content and Newsom Commons Cheraw, South Carolina PCN: 17-110 John Wall and Associates 3 1.4 Identity of Interest interest in the project. I have no The market analyst will receive no fees relationship with the ownership entity that contingent upon approval of the project by has not been disclosed to The Client in any agency or lending institution, before or accordance with the certifications in the after the fact, and the market analyst will Proposal for Market Studies. My have no interest in the housing project. compensation is not contingent on this project being funded. 1.5 Certifications 1.5.1 Certification of Physical Inspection 1.5.3 NCHMA Member Certification I affirm that I, or an individual employed by This market study has been prepared by my company, have made a physical John Wall and Associates, a member in inspection of the market area and that good standing of the National Council of information has been used in the full Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA). This assessment of the need and demand for new study has been prepared in conformance rental units. with the standards adopted by NCHMA for the market analysts’ industry. These 1.5.2 Required Statement standards include the Standard Definitions The statement below is required precisely as of Key Terms Used in Market Studies, and worded by some clients. It is, in part, Model Content Standards for the Content of repetitious of some of the other statements Market Studies. These standards are in this section, which are required by other designed to enhance the quality of market clients exactly as they are worded. studies and to make them easier to prepare, I affirm that I, or an individual employed by understand, and use by market analysts and my company, have made a physical by the end users. These Standards are inspection of the market area, and the voluntary only, and no legal responsibility information derived from that inspection regarding their use is assumed by the has been used in the full study of the need National Council of Housing Market and demand for new rental units. Analysts. To the best of my knowledge: the market John Wall and Associates is duly qualified can support the project to the extent shown and experienced in providing market in the study; the study was written analysis for Affordable Housing. The according to The Client’s Market Study company’s principals participate in the Guide; the information is accurate; and the National Council of Housing Market report can be relied upon by The Client to Analysts (NCHMA) educational and present a true assessment of the low-income information sharing programs to maintain rental housing market. the highest professional standards and I understand that any misrepresentation of state-of-the-art knowledge. John Wall and this statement may result in the denial of Associates is an independent market further participation in The Client’s rental analyst. No principal or employee of John housing programs. I affirm that I have no Wall and Associates has any financial Newsom Commons Cheraw, South Carolina PCN: 17-110 John Wall and Associates 4 interest whatsoever in the development for Submitted and attested to by: which this analysis has been undertaken. (Note: Information on the National Council of Housing Market Analysts may be obtained by calling _____________________________ 202-939-1750, or by visiting Joe Burriss, Principal www.housingonline.com) 2-20-18 Date _____________________________ Bob Rogers, Principal 2-20-18 Date Newsom Commons Cheraw, South Carolina PCN: 17-110 John Wall and Associates 5 12.4 Qualifying Income Ranges ......................................................... 44 2 Table of Contents 12.5 Programmatic and Pro Forma Rent Analysis .......................... 45 1 Foreword ................................................................................ 2 12.6 Households with Qualified Incomes ......................................... 46 1.1 Qualifications Statement............................................................... 2 13 Demand ............................................................................... 49 1.2 Release of Information .................................................................. 2 13.1 Demand from New Households ................................................ 49 1.3 Truth and Accuracy ...................................................................... 2 13.2 Demand from Existing Households .......................................... 49 1.4 Identity of Interest ......................................................................... 3 14 Demand for New Units ........................................................ 52 1.5 Certifications .................................................................................. 3 15 Supply Analysis (and Comparables) ................................... 53 2 Table of Contents .................................................................. 5 15.1 Tenure ........................................................................................... 53 2.1 Table of Tables ............................................................................... 6 15.2 Building Permits Issued .............................................................. 55 2.2 Table of Maps ................................................................................. 6 15.3 Survey of Apartments ................................................................. 55 3 Introduction .......................................................................... 7 15.4 Schedule of Present Rents, Units, and Vacancies .................... 56 3.1 Purpose ........................................................................................... 7 15.5 Other Affordable Housing Alternatives .................................... 56 3.2 Scope ............................................................................................... 7 15.6 Comparables ................................................................................ 58 3.3 Methodology .................................................................................. 7 15.7 Public Housing ............................................................................ 58 3.4 Limitations ..................................................................................... 7 15.8 Long Term Impact ....................................................................... 58 4 Executive Summary ..............................................................