AVIAN DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS AND CONSERVATION IN AMAZONIA by Mariana Moncassim Vale University Program in Ecology Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Science Duke University Date:_______________________ Approved: ___________________________ Stuart L. Pimm, Supervisor ___________________________ Maria Alice S. Alves, Co-supervisor ___________________________ Patrick N. Halpin ___________________________ Norman L. Christensen Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the University Program in Ecology in the Graduate School of Duke University 2007 ABSTRACT AVIAN DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS AND CONSERVATION IN AMAZONIA by Mariana Moncassim Vale University Program in Ecology Duke University Date:_______________________ Approved: ___________________________ Stuart L. Pimm, Supervisor ___________________________ Maria Alice S. Alves, Co-supervisor ___________________________ Patrick N. Halpin ___________________________ Norman L. Christensen An abstract of a dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor in Philosophy in the University Program in Ecology in the Graduate School of Duke University 2007 Copyright by Mariana Moncassim Vale 2007 Abstract In this dissertation, I address the distribution and conservation of the Amazonian avifauna at several different scales. In Chapter 1, I looked at how the spatial bias in ornithological collections affects our understanding of the patterns of diversity in Amazonia. I showed that Amazonia is massively under-collected, that biological collection sites cluster around points of access, and that the richness at collection localities is higher than would be expected at random. This greater richness in collected areas was associated with a higher proportion of species with small geographical ranges as compared to uncollected areas. These small range species are relevant for conservation, as they are especially prone to extinction. I concluded that the richness of the uncollected areas of Amazonia is seriously underestimated, and that current knowledge gaps preclude accurate selection of areas for conservation in Amazonia. With this in mind, I modeled the impacts of continued deforestation on the Amazonian endemic avifauna. To overcome knowledge gaps, I complemented bird range maps with a ―bird-ecoregions.‖ I identified several taxa and bird-ecoregions likely to face great threat in the near future, most of them associated with riverine habitats. To evaluate these predictions, I conducted a detailed study on two riverine species: the Rio Branco Antbird (Cercomacra carbonaria) and the Hoary-throated Spinetail (Synallaxis kollari). Both are threatened and endemic to the gallery forests of Roraima, Brazil. I predicted that both would lose critical habitat in the near future. I concluded that neither is categorized correctly in by The World Conservation Union and recommend the down-listing of the Rio-Branco- Antbird and the up-listing of the Hoary-throated Spinetail. I also explored the importance of iv indigenous reserves for the conservation of both species and emphasized the need for greater involvement of conservation biologists in the social issues related to their study organisms. Keywords: Amazonia, Birds, Biodiversity, Conservation, Indigenous People v To my father, Jorge Raimundo Rodrigues Vale, who was born and raised in Amazonia, and first introduced me to the wonders of that magical place. Shall his soul rest in peace under Saint George‘s shield. vi Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................. iv List of Tables ....................................................................................................................................... xi List of Figures ..................................................................................................................................... xii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................... xiii Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Missing Bird Species in Amazonia ................................................................................................ 5 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 7 1.2 Methods .................................................................................................................................. 11 1.2.1 Datasets ............................................................................................................................. 11 1.2.1.1 Species Range Map Data ......................................................................................... 11 1.2.1.2 Ornithological Collection Data .............................................................................. 12 1.2.1.3 Environmental Data ................................................................................................ 14 1.2.2 Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 14 1.2.2.1 Determination of Collection Bias .......................................................................... 14 1.2.2.2 Effect of Collection Bias on Species Richness .................................................... 15 1.2.2.3 Characterization of the Missing Species in Amazonia ........................................ 15 1.2.2.4 Effect of Collecting Bias on Endemic Bird Areas .............................................. 17 1.3 Results ..................................................................................................................................... 17 1.3.1 Predictors of Collection Presence ................................................................................. 17 1.3.2 Species Richness .............................................................................................................. 20 1.3.3 Missing Species in Amazonia ......................................................................................... 21 1.3.4 Endemic Bird Areas ........................................................................................................ 23 vii 1.4 Discussion .............................................................................................................................. 26 1.4.1 Bias in Biological Collections and Species Richness .................................................. 26 1.4.2 Conservation Implications ............................................................................................. 28 1.4.3 Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 30 2. Threatened Species in the Brazilian Amazon: which will be next, and where will they be . 32 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 33 2.1.1 Where the Species Are .................................................................................................... 33 2.1.2 Where the Development Projects Are.......................................................................... 35 2.2 Methods .................................................................................................................................. 38 2.2.1 Deforestation Model ....................................................................................................... 38 2.2.2 Species Analysis ................................................................................................................ 39 2.2.3 Bird-Ecoregion Analysis ................................................................................................. 40 2.2.4 Prediction of Future Threat ........................................................................................... 41 2.3 Results ..................................................................................................................................... 42 2.3.1 Threatened Species .......................................................................................................... 42 2.3.1.1 Predicted Conservation Status for Bird Species .................................................. 46 2.3.2 Threatened Bird-Ecoregions .......................................................................................... 50 2.3.2.1 Predicted Conservation Status for Bird-ecoregions ............................................ 52 2.4 Discussion .............................................................................................................................. 55 2.4.1 Which Species Will Be Next and Where Will They Be .............................................. 55 2.4.2 Brazilian Bird Conservation ........................................................................................... 57 3. Abundance, Distribution, and Conservation of Cercomacra carbonaria and Synallaxis kollari, in Roraima, Brazil .................................................................................................................. 60 3.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................