8906429 ■ ---- UNIVERSITY OF SURREY LIBRARY All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if materia! had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Published by ProQuest LLC (2017). Copyright of the Dissertation is held by the Author. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. ProQuest LLC. 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106- 1346 Solving Factors and Decision-Making in “Hard to Solve” Murder Enquiries By Mark Roycroft Submitted to the University of Surrey for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy September 2009 2 This thesis, and the work to which it refers, are the results of my own efforts. Any ideas, data, images or text resulting from the work of others (whether published or unpublished) are fully identified as such within the work and attributed to their originator in the text, bibliography or in footnotes. This thesis has not been submitted in whole or in part for any other academic degree or professional qualification. I agree that the University has the right to submit my work to the plagiarism detection service, Turnitin UK, for originality checks. Whether or not drafts have been so-assessed, the University reserves the right to require an electronic version of the final document (as submitted) for assessment as above. 3 Contents Heading Page No List of Figures 6 List of Tables 7 Glossary 9 Acknowledgements 10 Abstract 11 Chapter 1 Introduction 1 2 1-1 Introduction.................................................................. 12 1-2 Objectives.................................................................... 14 1-3 Overview of the Chapters ................................ 15 1-4 Legal Context................................................................ 13 1-5 Murder Rates in the U K............................................... 23 Chapter 2 The Naturalistic Model of Decision-Making 2 5 2-1 Introduction.................................................................. 25 2.2 Decision-Making Theories............................................ 25 2.3 siO Decision-Making Processes.................................. 41 2.4 Pressures Facing Senior Investigating Officers 4^ During Investigations............................................. 25 The Culture of Homicide Teams and its Influence 46 on SIOs Decision-Making........................................ 2.6 What Does Success Look Like..................................... 46 2.7 Identifying Investigative Solving Factors....................... 52 2-8 Implementation of the SIOs Strategy............................ 50 2.9 Conclusion........................................... 52 Chapter 3 Methodological Considerations 63 3.1 Introduction................................................................... 63 3.2 Qualitative or Quantitative or Both?.............................. 54 3.3 Methodological Rationale............................................. 57 3-4 Analytic Strategy.......................................................... 73 3.5 The Research Procedures............................................ 74 4 Chapter 4 Study One: Documentary Analysis of Historic 75 Inquiries 4-1 Introduction............................................................. 75 4.2 Method................................................................... 75 4.3 Clarity and Leadership Among Senior Officers 78 4-4 Skills of SIO............................. 81 4.5 Systematic Failures................................................. 87 4.6 Phasing of Enquiries................................................ 87 4.7 Management of the Major Incident Room................ 89 4.8 Individual Investigative Strategy Failures................. 89 4.9 Summary................................................................. 91 Chapter 5 Study Two: Current Police Investigative 94 Practice 5.1 Introduction.............................................................. 94 5.2 Brief History of Murder Investigations...................... 94 5.3 Method ........................... ............................... 97 5.4 Results..................................................................... 98 5.5 The Metropolitan Police Service Structure for investigating Homicides.................................. 100 5.6 Mapping the Murder Investigation Process.............. 11° 5-7 Summary.................................................................. 114 Chapter 6 Study Three: Senior Investigation Officer Study 115 6.1 Introduction.............................................................. 115 6.2 Method..................................................................... 115 6.2.1 Details of the Sample........................................ 115 6.2.2 Interview Details....................................................... 119 6.2.3 Analystic Method ................................. 122 6.3 Results......................... 124 0 ^ ^ Pressures / Influences on SIOs Decision-Making Processes.............................................................. 6.3.2 Management Style of SIOs...................................... 154 6.3.3 The Decision-Making Process................................. 142 6.3.4 Prioritisation............................................................. 145 5 6.3.5 Solving Factors....................................................... 154 6.3.6 Comparison of Successful / Unsuccessful SIOs ...... 155 6.4 Summary................................................................. 157 Chapter 7 Study Four: Holmes Secondary Analysis 159 7.1 Introduction............................................................. 159 7.2 Method............................. 159 7.2.1 Home Office Large Major Enquiry System............... 160 7.2.2 Sampling Cases...................................................... 161 7.2.3 Procedure............................................................... 161 7.3 Results.................................................................... 162 7.3.1 Descriptive Statistics ..................................... 162 7.3.2 Phasing of Inquiries................................................ 167 7.3.3 Peaks of Activity in Cat A & Cat B Cases................ 172 7.3.4 Solving Factors....................... 174 7.3.5 Multi Variate Analyses............................................. 177 7.4 Summary.................................. 184 Chapter 8 Discussion 185 8.1 Introduction............................................................. 185 8.2 Mapping Contemporary Murder Investigation Practice.................................................................. 186 8.3 Key Solving Issues................................................... 187 8.4 Phasing Patterns...................................................... 194 8.5 Decision-Making Styles of the Investigator.............. 195 8.6 How Findings Link to Decision-Making Theories 196 8.7 Methods................................................................ 200 8.8 Strengths / Weaknesses of Research...................... 201 8.9 Summary................................................................. 202 Chapter 9 Practice Recommendations and Conclusions 204 9.1 Introduction ......................................................... 204 9.2 Good Practice.......................................................... 204 9.2.1 Clarity of Leadership................................................ 204 9.2.2 Specific Skills........................................................... 205 9.2.3 Systemic Management............................................ 207 9.2.4 Phasing of Enquiries .......................................... 208 9.2.5 Management Style................................................... 208 9.2.6 Specific Investigative Strategies.............................. 209 9.2.7 Decision-Making Techniques by the SIO................. 212 9.3 Reflections............................................................ 213 9.4 Future Directions.................... 215 6 LIST OF FIGURES Figure No Description Page No Figure 2.1 Differences Between Traditional and Naturalistic Decision Making 31 Figure 2.2 Summary of Key Aspects of Naturalistic Decision Making............. 35 Figure 2.3 Summary of Elements Involved in Overall Decision Making.......... 40 Figure 3.1 Methods Used to Address Different Aspects of the Research ...... 69 Figure 3.2 Analytical Strategy....................................................................................... 74 Figure 4.1 Recommendations and Themes Identified From Inquiries............. 77 Figure 4.2 Skills of the SIO ............................................................................................ 82 Figure 5.1 Timeline of Key Events and Significant Murders in the UK ............. 96 Figure 5.2 Organisations of the Murder Investigation Teams (MIT) (London Homicide Manual)......................................................................................... 102 Figure 5.3 Structure of the Major Incident Room (London Homicide Manual) 104 Figure 5.4 Flow Chart of Investigative Process....................................................... 111 Figure 6.1 Broad Themes and Sub Themes............................................................ 124 Figure 6.2 Internal Pressures Identified from the SIOs Interviews..................... 126 Figure 6.3 External Pressures