Identifying Species in Pennsylvania Potentially Vulnerable to Climate Change June 2011 Pennsylvania Natural Heritage Program Pennsylvania Natural Heritage Program is a partnership of the Western Pennsylvania Conservancy, Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission, and Pennsylvania Game Commission. The project was funded by Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Wild Resource Conservation Program Grant number WRCP-08288 Suggested report citation: Furedi, M., B. Leppo, M. Kowalski, T. Davis, and B. Eichelberger. 2011. Identifying species in Pennsylvania potentially vulnerable to climate change. Pennsylvania Natural Heritage Program, Western Pennsylvania Conservancy, Pittsburgh, PA. ON THE COVER: Left: Wood turtle (Glyptemys insculpta)-photo by Charlie Eichelberger, Center: Creeping snowberry (Gaultheria hispidula)-photo by Charlie Eichelberger, Right: Bog copper (Lycaena epixanthe)-photo by Betsy Leppo Table of Contents Table of Figures ................................................................................................................. iv Executive Summary............................................................................................................ 1 Introduction......................................................................................................................... 2 Methods............................................................................................................................... 2 Development of a Priority Assessment List.................................................................... 2 Examination of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change ............................................. 2 Exposure ..................................................................................................................... 3 Sensitivity ................................................................................................................... 3 Documented or Modeled Responses to Climate Change............................................ 4 Results................................................................................................................................. 5 Priority Species Assessment List.................................................................................... 5 Species Vulnerability to Climate Change....................................................................... 6 Amphibians................................................................................................................. 7 Birds............................................................................................................................ 8 Cave Invertebrates ...................................................................................................... 9 Invertebrates - Insects ................................................................................................. 9 Mammals................................................................................................................... 10 Mollusks.................................................................................................................... 11 Plants......................................................................................................................... 12 Reptiles ..................................................................................................................... 13 Discussion......................................................................................................................... 14 Limited Dispersal Capability ........................................................................................ 14 Specialized Habitat Requirements ................................................................................ 14 ii Interpreting CCVI Results ............................................................................................ 15 Future Direction............................................................................................................ 17 References:........................................................................................................................ 18 Appendix 1. List of priority species for examination using the CCVI. Those species with asterisks next to their common names were examined in this project.............................. 20 Appendix 2. Definitions and symbols for global, state, and CCVI ranks used in the document tables. ............................................................................................................... 34 Appendix 3. Vulnerability index scores........................................................................... 36 Appendix 4. Exposure and geography risk factors. ......................................................... 52 Appendix 6. Summary of CCVI results for each species organized by taxonomic group. ........................................................................................................................................... 68 iii Table of Figures Figure 1. Results of climate change vulnerability analyses by taxonomic group………....6 Figure 2. Spadefoot toad (Scaphiopus holbrooki), photo by Charlie Eichelberger……….7 Figure 3. Tundra swan (Cygnus columbianus), photo by Charlie Eichelberger…………..8 Figure 4. Frosted elfin (Callophrys irus), photo by Monica Miller……………………….9 Figure 5. Allegheny woodrat (Neotoma magister), photo by Charlie Eichelberger……..10 Figure 6. Yellow lampmussel (Lampsilis cariosa), photo by Beth Meyer……………....11 Figure 7. Bog-rosemary (Andromeda polifolia), photo by Denise Watts………………..12 Figure 8. Bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii), photo by Charlie Eichelberger………..13 iv Executive Summary Climate change will likely impact the distribution and abundance of plant and animal species in Pennsylvania. Those species vulnerable to climate may experience a shift in their ranges within the state. Recognizing climate change vulnerability is an important first step in preparing for future conservation efforts. However, no assessments have yet been conducted to determine which Pennsylvania species are vulnerable to climate change. The goals of this project were to 1) compile a priority list of species occurring in Pennsylvania that are likely vulnerable to climate change and 2) examine the climate change vulnerability of species included in the priority list. The overall objective was to not only identify climate change vulnerable species but to also examine the abiotic factors and life history characteristics that contribute to their increased vulnerability. A priority list of species for climate change assessment was compiled based on those species contained in Pennsylvania’s State Wildlife Action Plan (WAP), species’ distribution, potential vulnerable habitat types, and expert opinion. In total, the list contained 525 species. Climate change vulnerability assessments were completed for 85 of the species using the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI v2.0) developed by NatureServe. The CCVI allows the user to examine the exposure and sensitivity of a species to a series of risk factors associated with climate change. An examination of vulnerability patterns among taxonomic groups indicated that amphibians and mussels were the most vulnerable groups. Insects, plants, and reptiles exhibited a wider range of variability to climate change vulnerability, while birds and cave invertebrates appeared to be less vulnerable to short-term climate change effects. A more in depth discussion of the results of each taxonomic group was presented along with a breakdown of the CCVI score and individual risk factors for each species. A summary of the findings was compiled for each species. In addition, general risk factors contributing to overall species vulnerability were discussed along with a few caveats associated with the interpretation of the CCVI results. 1 Introduction Climate change will likely alter the distribution and abundance of plant and animal species in Pennsylvania. However, the response to climate change will likely vary among species. Mobile species that are not restricted by habitat constraints and geographic or anthropogenic barriers may shift their ranges northward in response to climate change. Northern edge-of-range species that fall into this category may actually shift their ranges beyond Pennsylvania’s borders while being replaced by species that were once more southerly distributed. Pennsylvania may even gain new species from surrounding states as ranges shift. On the other hand, some species may have very little ability to move in response to climate change due to various limitations/obstacles. These species may likely experience a reduction in range or abundance. Other species may likely remain stable within their current range or may even expand their existing range. This potential shift in species occurrences and ranges will create challenges for those agencies responsible for their conservation and management. The first step in addressing these challenges is to determine which species are most vulnerable to climate change and what factors lend towards their vulnerability. The goal of this project was two-fold. First, compile a priority list of species occurring in Pennsylvania that are likely vulnerable to climate change. Second, using the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI), an assessment tool developed by NatureServe, examine the vulnerability of species included in the priority