1 Literature review for the Policy and Operations Evaluations Department of the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs FINAL REPORT August 2017 Signalistgatan 9 SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00 Fax: +46 8 655 97 33 Email: [email protected] Internet: www.sipri.org 2 Contents Contents ...................................................................................................... 2 Abbreviations .............................................................................................. 6 Preface ...................................................................................................... 10 Executive Summary ................................................................................... 11 1. Developments with respect to nuclear, biological and chemical weapons .... 11 2. Developments in the area of conventional weapons .................................... 14 3. Developments at the European Union level .................................................. 15 4. Arms exports and developments in the Middle East ..................................... 16 1. Developments with respect to nuclear, biological and chemical weapons .................................................................................................................. 18 1.1. Nuclear weapon inventories and armament dynamics ............................... 18 Overview of world nuclear forces ...................................................................... 18 Table 1.1.1. World nuclear forces, January 2017 ............................................... 19 Table 1.1.2. Changes in world nuclear weapon inventories, 1960–2017 ............ 20 Trends in nuclear weapons and doctrines ......................................................... 20 NATO and non-strategic nuclear weapons ........................................................ 23 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 24 References ......................................................................................................... 25 1.2. Russian–US nuclear arms control ............................................................... 27 Implementation of New START ......................................................................... 27 Table 1.2.1. Summary of Russian–US strategic nuclear arms reduction treaty force limits ....................................................................................................... 28 Role of New START ............................................................................................ 29 Next steps after New START .............................................................................. 29 INF Treaty controversy ...................................................................................... 31 Towards a new cold war? .................................................................................. 31 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 32 References ......................................................................................................... 32 1.3. Developments in the international juridical framework and related architecture ..................................................................................................... 34 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty ...................................................................... 34 Nuclear weapon-free zones ............................................................................... 38 Table 1.3.1. Summary of nuclear weapon-free zone treaties, 1 January 2017 ... 39 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty .......................................................... 40 Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty ........................................................................... 43 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 46 References ......................................................................................................... 46 1.4. Humanitarian concerns and nuclear disarmament ..................................... 50 Humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons ........................................................ 50 Open-Ended Working Group ............................................................................. 51 UN General Assembly adopts a ban resolution ................................................. 53 Opening of negotiations on a nuclear ban treaty .............................................. 53 3 Contending views on a nuclear ban treaty ........................................................ 54 Next steps .......................................................................................................... 56 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 57 References ......................................................................................................... 58 1.5. Main developments and discussions in the export control regimes ............ 60 Mandate and functions ..................................................................................... 60 Table 1.5.1. The four multilateral export control regimes ................................. 61 Structure and way of operating ......................................................................... 63 Issues under discussion ..................................................................................... 63 NSG relationships with Pakistan and India ........................................................ 64 Hague Code of Conduct on Ballistic Missile Proliferation .................................. 66 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 67 References ......................................................................................................... 68 1.6. The Proliferation Security Initiative and UN Security Council Resolution 1540 ................................................................................................................. 71 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 71 The Proliferation Security Initiative ................................................................... 71 United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540 ............................................. 74 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 76 References ......................................................................................................... 77 1.7. Actual use of chemical weapons in Syria .................................................... 79 A chronology of the investigations of alleged CW use in Syria .......................... 79 Implications of chemical weapon use in Syria ................................................... 84 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 88 References ......................................................................................................... 88 2. Developments in the area of conventional weapons .............................. 93 2.1. The international arms trade in the last decade and the influence of economic crises and emerging markets on defence budgets and arms sales ..... 93 Transparency in the arms trade and military spending ..................................... 94 Table 2.1.1. Reports submitted to the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms and under the Arms Trade Treaty by region, 2011–15 ............................. 95 Global trends in the arms trade and military spending ..................................... 96 Table 2.1.2. Military expenditure by region, 2007–16 ....................................... 97 Table 2.1.3. Key military expenditure statistics by region, 2016 ...................... 100 Exporters ......................................................................................................... 101 Table 2.1.4. The 50 largest suppliers of major weapons, 2012–16 ................... 102 Table 2.1.5. The 10 largest suppliers of major weapons and their destinations, by region, 2012–16 ......................................................................................... 105 Importers ......................................................................................................... 107 Table 2.1.6. The 50 largest recipients of major weapons, 2012–16 .................. 110 Conclusions ...................................................................................................... 115 References ....................................................................................................... 116 2.2. The availability and military use of guided missiles .................................. 116 Long-range ballistic and guided missiles ......................................................... 117 Man-Portable Air Defence Systems ................................................................. 117 Precision-guided weapons ............................................................................... 119 Conclusions ...................................................................................................... 119 4 References ......................................................................................................