Scenarios for resilience and climate adaptation strategies in Tenerife (Canary Islands) Three pathways towards 2040 Yeray Hernandez, Paulo Barbosa and Serafin Corral 2017 1 EUR 28786 EN This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. Contact information Name: Yeray Hernandez Address: Via Fermi, 2749, 21027 Ispra (VA) — Italy Email: [email protected] Tel. +39 0332783821 JRC Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc JRC108017 EUR 28786 EN PDF ISBN 978-92-79-73632-2 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/587634 Print ISBN 978-92-79-73633-9 ISSN 1018-5593 doi:10.2760/446489 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2017 © European Union, 2017 The reuse of the document is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the original meaning or message of the texts are not distorted. The European Commission shall not be held liable for any consequences stemming from the reuse. How to cite this report: Yeray Hernandez, Paulo Barbosa and Serafin Corral, Scenarios for resilience and climate adaptation strategies in Tenerife (Canary Islands): three pathways towards 2040, EUR 28786, doi:10.2760/587634. All images © European Union 2017 2 Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................... 5 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 6 2 Literature review ............................................................................................... 7 2.1 What are scenarios? ..................................................................................... 7 2.2 Some applications ........................................................................................ 7 3 Material and methods ....................................................................................... 11 3.1 Development methods ............................................................................... 11 3.1.1 Institutional analysis and participatory techniques ................................. 11 3.1.1.1 Press review ................................................................................ 12 3.1.1.2 In-depth interviews to experts and stakeholders .............................. 13 3.1.1.3 Focus groups ............................................................................... 13 3.1.2 Power-relation analysis ....................................................................... 14 3.2 Backbone approach .................................................................................... 15 3.2.1 Characterisation of current state .......................................................... 15 3.2.2 Critical dimensions ............................................................................. 15 3.2.3 Driving forces and strategic invariants .................................................. 15 3.2.4 Critical uncertainties .......................................................................... 16 4 Scenarios overview for 2040 ............................................................................. 19 4.1 Business as usual ...................................................................................... 19 4.2 Awakening ................................................................................................ 20 4.3 Collaborative communities .......................................................................... 20 5 Results: three scenarios towards 2040 ............................................................... 22 5.1 Strategic invariants .................................................................................... 22 5.1.1 Demography ..................................................................................... 22 5.1.1.1 Population growth ........................................................................ 22 5.1.1.2 Ageing population ........................................................................ 23 5.1.2 Economy .......................................................................................... 24 5.1.2.1 Recovery/recession ...................................................................... 24 5.1.2.2 Employment/computerisation ........................................................ 26 5.1.2.3 Energy and green technologies: the international context ................. 27 5.1.3 Governance....................................................................................... 29 5.1.3.1 Power relations ............................................................................ 29 5.1.4 Environment ..................................................................................... 30 5.1.4.1 Heatwaves .................................................................................. 30 5.1.4.2 Saharan dust outbreaks ................................................................ 31 5.2 Business as usual ...................................................................................... 32 i 5.2.1 Economy .......................................................................................... 32 5.2.1.1 Food production dependency ......................................................... 32 5.2.1.2 Tourism sector ............................................................................ 33 5.2.2 Society ............................................................................................. 36 5.2.2.1 Poverty and inequality .................................................................. 36 5.2.2.2 Social values and lifestyle ............................................................. 37 5.2.3 Governance....................................................................................... 37 5.2.3.1 Politics and decision-making .......................................................... 37 5.2.4 Energy and technology ....................................................................... 39 5.2.4.1 Energy and green technologies ...................................................... 39 5.2.5 Environment ..................................................................................... 39 5.2.5.1 Land-based transport planning ...................................................... 39 5.2.5.2 Air quality ................................................................................... 41 5.2.5.3 Water governance ........................................................................ 42 5.3 Awakening ................................................................................................ 45 5.3.1 Economy .......................................................................................... 45 5.3.1.1 Reduced food production dependency ............................................. 45 5.3.1.2 Tourism sector ............................................................................ 46 5.3.2 Society ............................................................................................. 47 5.3.2.1 Poverty and inequality .................................................................. 47 5.3.2.2 Social values and lifestyle ............................................................. 48 5.3.3 Governance....................................................................................... 48 5.3.3.1 Politics and decision-making .......................................................... 48 5.3.4 Energy and technology ....................................................................... 49 5.3.4.1 Energy and green technologies ...................................................... 49 5.3.5 Environment ..................................................................................... 50 5.3.5.1 Land-based transport planning ...................................................... 50 5.3.5.2 Air quality ................................................................................... 51 5.3.5.3 Water governance ........................................................................ 52 5.4 Collaborative communities .......................................................................... 55 5.4.1 Economy .......................................................................................... 55 5.4.1.1 Food production dependency ......................................................... 55 5.4.1.2 Tourism sector ............................................................................ 55 5.4.2 Society ............................................................................................. 56 5.4.2.1 Poverty and inequality .................................................................. 56 5.4.2.2 Social values and lifestyle ............................................................. 56 5.4.3 Governance....................................................................................... 57 5.4.3.1 Politics and decision-making .......................................................... 57 ii 5.4.4 Energy and technology ....................................................................... 57 5.4.4.1 Energy and green technologies ...................................................... 57 5.4.5 Environment ....................................................................................