Arbutus Village Commercial Development Opportunity And Impact Study Vancouver, B.C. Prepared for: The City of Vancouver As of December 2008 Cushman & Wakefield LePage, Inc. Valuation, Advisory & Property Tax Services 700 West Georgia Street, Suite 700 Vancouver, B.C. V7Y 1A1 (604) 683-8181 C&W LePage File ID: W8-51 TABLE OF CONTENTS T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S S I T E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T C O N T E X T 5 1.1 SITE AND LOCATION 5 1.2 TRANSPORTATION, ACCESS AND VISIBILITY 8 1.3 DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT 9 R E T A I L M A R K E T O V E R V I E W A N D S U P P L Y 1 3 2.1 CLASSIFICATION OF SHOPPING CENTRES 13 2.2 NEIGHBOURHOOD SHOPPING CENTRES 16 2.3 RETAIL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS 19 2.4 METRO VANCOUVER RETAIL MARKET 20 2.5 RETAIL MARKET OUTLOOK 26 2.6 RETAIL SUPPLY 26 R E T A I L D E M A N D 3 5 3.1 INTRODUCTION 35 3.2 DELINEATION OF THE TRADE AREA 35 3.3 POPULATION PROJECTIONS AND DEMOGRAPHICS 36 3.4 RETAIL DEMAND PROJECTION 40 O F F I C E M A R K E T O V E R V I E W 4 3 4.1 INTRODUCTION 43 4.2 BUILDING CLASSES 43 4.3 OFFICE-USING EMPLOYMENT 44 4.4 THE OFFICE BUILDING MARKET 45 4.5 THE OFFICE MARKET VACANCY RATE 47 4.6 ASKING RENTS 48 4.7 LEASING ACTIVITY AND ABSORPTION 49 4.8 OFFICE DEVELOPMENT 50 4.9 OFFICE MARKET OUTLOOK 50 4.10 THE OFFICE MARKET WEST OF GRANVILLE STREET 51 4.11 OFFICE SPACE ABSORPTION AT THE SUBJECT SITE 52 D E V E L O P M E N T A N D I M P A C T A N A L Y S I S 5 5 5.1 INTRODUCTION 55 5.2 RETAIL IMPACT 55 5.3 OFFICE IMPACT 55 A D D E N D A C O N T E N T S 5 8 ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS APPENDIX I QUALIFICATIONS OF CONSULTANTS APPENDIX II – ARBUTUS VILLAGE RETAIL IMPACT STUDY VANCOUVER, B.C. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I E X E C U T I V E S U M M AR Y This development opportunity and impact report, and retail and office market study on Arbutus Village Shopping Centre was commissioned by the City of Vancouver and was completed between October and “Arbutus ” envisions a mixed use December 2008. The recently approved Centre Policy Statement development of approximately 110,000 sq.ft. of retail and office space, approximately 650 residential units and a possible Neighbourhood House. The proposed retail component would be located at grade level among four separate buildings, a food store of about 40,000 sq.ft., a mix of street fronting Commercial Retail Units (CRU) totalling 40,000 sq.ft. (including a liquor store, financial institution, personal services and restaurants), plus office space of at least 30,000 sq.ft., most of which would be on the second level. The objective of this report is to determine whether any increases of retail and/or office space can be achieved in this location, and if so, what the economic impact would be. Provision of optimal yet still local serving commercial is a principle objective. The project should not detract from or negatively impact any other existing commercial centres. LIMITS TO EXPANSION The objectives of this study are to establish the optimal and economically viable scale of commercial development and to simultaneously establish the range of potential impact of the centre on the existing retail infrastructure. In a collaborative manner, the analysis would find the balance point between the ideal type and scale of project and some acceptable level of impact. Several important issues have a major impact on commercial development potential at Arbutus Village. No expansion on grade level is possible, so any additional space over and above the proposed 80,000 sq.ft. is above grade level, on levels 2 and 3 or higher. The subject site is not on a major traffic intersection, and access and visibility are very poor as compared to virtually any comparable commercial development in western Canada. The site has a 7 meter slope to both the south and the west, which has a severe negative impact on the grade level site plan, restricting project size. The project is not on a major arterial such as Broadway or Granville Street, but rather it is on a secondary arterial with only moderate and local traffic volumes. This highly localized location limits the number of potential customers and thus the potential scale. The existing project is not a normal or even an average commercial property and it has performed very poorly for many years despite minimal commercial competition within the trade area. It is highly likely that the past and proposed size of Arbutus Village is already optimal. An increase in size on such a small sloping, mid-block site means that additional space would be above grade retail space, and that is not feasible at any but the busiest locations. Even if some large and popular anchor tenant was able to locate on level 2, it would violate the condition of being local serving as it would need to draw sales from residents across the entire west side. (W8-51) VALUATION & ADVISORY SERVICES – ARBUTUS VILLAGE RETAIL IMPACT STUDY VANCOUVER, B.C. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY II Even if the site were larger, flat and had better access, a larger development would not necessarily be warranted. The current proposed development is already at the upper limit of scale for a neighbourhood centre according to all industry standards. If this project were expanded beyond 110,000 sq.ft., it would be one of the largest neighbourhood shopping centres in all of Canada. Such an exceptionally large project exceeding industry standards would only be feasible at an exceptionally busy commercial location. The possible expansion scenarios beyond 110,000 sq.ft. are as follows: SCENARIO 1: 135,000 SQ.FT. (ADDITIONAL 25,000 SQ.FT.) Level 2: 25,000 sq.ft. destination retail anchor on level two, likely over the supermarket. This would be an anchor such as Winners, Best Buy or other mid-sized box store. Retail on the second level is not viable economically or financially, and even if an anchor was possible, the centre would have to be a regional destination in order to produce sufficient sales for a destination retailer to be viable. A series of small shops would not be viable on a second level as inconvenient vertical access and limited visibility would not allow the tenants to attract sufficient sales to remain in business. OR 25,000 sq.ft. of office space (in addition to the proposed 30,000 sq.ft.). An overview of the market clearly indicates that an office building on the secondary arterial road could not exceed the 30,000 sq.ft. already proposed. If the developer were compelled to build this, this would be the only reasonable expansion scenario and the scenarios which consider an even greater scale should not be considered. SCENARIO 2: 160,000 SQ.FT. (ADDITIONAL 50,000 SQ.FT.) Level 2: 50,000 sq.ft. of office space (in addition to the proposed 30,000 sq.ft.). This is too large for the market and location. SCENARIO 3: 185,000 SQ.FT. (ADDITIONAL 75,000 SQ.FT.) Level 2 and 3: 75,000 sq.ft. of office space (in addition to the proposed 30,000 sq.ft.). This is too large for the market and location. RETAIL IMPACT Additional retail expansion over the 80,000 sq.ft. proposed is not technically, economically or financially feasible. The subject site is simply not suitable for retail space over 80,000 sq.ft. and neither the market nor ’s shortcomings were somehow addressed. industry standards could support anything larger, even if the site Even if the developer was compelled to expand the retail space by 25,000 sq.ft., the small scale and limited local serving stores of the potential retail expansion would have negligible sales which would preclude any possible negative impact on existing west side retail. (W8-51) VALUATION & ADVISORY SERVICES – ARBUTUS VILLAGE RETAIL IMPACT STUDY VANCOUVER, B.C. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY III OFFICE IMPACT As it has been determined that the retail space cannot be expanded, any possible expansion would thus have to focus on office space. As there is already 30,000 sq.ft. of office space proposed, the scenarios are: 55,000 sq.ft. of office space (25,000 sq.ft. proposed in addition to the 30,000 sq.ft. planned). 80,000 sq.ft. of office space (50,000 sq.ft. proposed in addition to the 30,000 sq.ft. planned). 105,000 sq.ft. of office space (75,000 sq.ft. proposed in addition to the 30,000 sq.ft. planned). In our analysis, the proposed 30,000 sq.ft. of office is warranted by the market, but a 55,000 sq.ft. office building, at this peripheral location, with underground parking would not be economically or financially feasible. Such an office project is not existent in any comparable location on the west side, largely because there are not a sufficient number of tenants to support such a large scale project. If the project was forced to have a 55,000 sq.ft.