+2°C Renewable energy and energy efficiency in developing countries: contributions to reducing global emissions Second Report 2016 A digital copy of this report is available at 1gigatoncoalition.org Copyright © United Nations Environment Programme, 2016 This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The United Nations Environment Programme would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the United Nations Environment Programme. Disclaimer The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations Environment Programme concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Moreover, the views expressed do not necessarily represent the decision or the stated policy of the United Nations Environment Programme, nor does citing of trade names or commercial processes constitute endorsement. ISBN No: 978-92-807-3618-2 Job. No: DTI/2062/PA 2 +2°C Renewable energy and energy efficiency in developing countries: contributions to reducing global emissions ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The 1 Gigaton Coalition would like to thank members of the Technical Advisory Group, all the lead and contributing authors, and the Secretariat for their contribution to the development of this report. LEAD AUTHORS PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND COORDINATION: NewClimate Institute: Niklas Höhne, Markus Hagemann, Takeshi Zitouni Ould-Dada (UN Environment) Kuramochi, Sofia Gonzales, Sebastian Sterl, Thomas Day Minori Lee (UN Environment) Yale University: Angel Hsu, Carlin Rosengarten, Amy Weinfurter, Kaiyang Xu, Chendan Yan DESIGN AND LAYOUT: Weeks.de Webeagentur GmbH REN21: Hannah E. Murdock, Lorcan Lyons THE 1 GIGATON COALITION WOULD LIKE TO THANK AND REVIEWERS ACKNOWLEDGE THE INVALUABLE ASSISTANCE OF REN21, Terje Kronen (Ministry of Climate and Environment), Hans Olav NAMELY: Ibrekk (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway), Ichiro Sato (JICA), Fabian Twerdy (German Environment Agency), Zhao Xiusheng Hannah E. Murdock (Coordination), and Stefanie Di Domenico for (Tsinghua University), Milena Gonzalez Vasquez (GEF), Christine research support. Lins (REN21), Janet L. Sawin (Sunna Research), Freyr Sverrisson (Sunna Research), Kristin Seyboth (KMS Research and Consulting) Also, the following for contributing data: Tarek AbdulRazek (RCREEE), Nurzat Abdyrasulova (Unison Group), COUNTRY, INITIATIVE AND DATA CONTRIBUTORS Akram Al Mohamadi (RCREEE), Dennis Akande (ECREEE), Oleksandr Antonenko (Revelle Group), Tirtha Biswas (Council on Energy, Multi-stakeholder partnerships: Quinn Reifmesser (REEEP), Environment and Water), Gonzalo Bravo (Fundacion Bariloche), Martin Hiller (REEEP), Eva Oberender (REEEP), Michael Koeberlein Pablo Carvajal (Energy Institute, University College London), (GIZ), Irma Juskenaite (CTCN), Jukka Uosukainen (CTCN), James Sebastián Espinoza (INER), Fabrice Fouodji Toche (Global Village Morris (CCAC), Tatiana Kondruchina (CCAC), Greet Maenhout Cameroon), Lucas Furlano (Fundacion Bariloche), Frank Haugwitz (CoM), Amir Bahr (SE4All), Thibaud Voita (SE4All), Lara Younes (Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory Co. Ltd.), Allan Kinuthia (IRENA), Dolf Gielen (IRENA), Deger Saygin (IRENA), Elizabeth Smith (African Solar Design), Melisande Liu (Unison Group), Fabio (ICF), Mohamed Boussaid (4C Maroc) Lucantonio, Evan Musolino, Joseph Ngwawi (SARDC), Radovan Case study support: N i k cˇ e v i c´ (Revelle Group), Katarina Uherova Hasbani (Revelle Group), Birama Diarra (Dèveloppement Direction Nationale Naomi Wambui (African Solar Design) de la Mètèorologie, Mali), Xiaodong Wang, The World Bank, El Mostafa Jamea, MENARES Institute, Irene Garcia, World Future Council, Nizhar Marizi, Ministry of National Development Planning/ Bappenas, Indonesia, Kakhaberu Mdivani Kakhaberi, Chief Specialist Climate Change, Mitigation. Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection of Georgia, Carolina Mena, Dirección Nacional de Energía – Ministerio de Industria, Energía y Minería, Uruguay Data gathering: Markus Kurdziel (IKI), Sarah Leitner (IKI), Karoline Teien Blystad (Norfund), Lucie Bernatkova (EIB), Cyrille Arnould (EIB), Aglaé Touchard-Le Drain (EIB), Martina Jung (KfW), Milena Gonzalez Vasquez (GEF), David Elrie Rodgers (GEF), Ichiro Sato (JICA), Yoji Ishii (JICA) +2°C TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . 4 FOREWORD . 6 KEY MESSAGES . 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 8 1 INTRODUCTION 10 QUANTIFICATION OF EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS: 4 A METHODOLOGICAL OVERVIEW 36 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’ ENERGY EFFICIENCY 4.1 PRIMARY AND SECONDARY INTERVENTIONS .. 39 AND RENEWABLE ENERGY TOTAL CONTRIBUTION 4.2 ACCOUNTING SCOPE . .. 39 2 TO GLOBAL GHG EMISSIONS REDUCTION 12 4.3 SETTING BASELINE EMISSIONS . 40 4.4 ACCOUNTING TIMEFRAME . 41 4.5 SUMMARY . 41 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES’ POLICIES AND TARGETS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY 3 AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY 15 ANALYSIS OF EMISSION REDUCTIONS 3.1 POLICY DEVELOPMENT . 17 FROM SUPPORTED RENEWABLE ENERGY 42 3 .1 .1 Targets . 17 5 AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROJECTS 3 1. .2 Policy instruments . 19 5.1 AGGREGATED IMPACT . 44 5.2 . 3.2 SUCCESS STORIES . 23 SELECTED BILATERAL INITIATIVES 45 5.3 . China . 24 SELECTED MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS 49 Georgia . 26 5 .3 1. Multi-stakeholder partnerships . 54 Indonesia . 28 Mali . 30 A PATH FORWARD: NEW CONCEPTS Morocco . 32 6 FOR ESTIMATING GHG IMPACTS 58 Uruguay . 34 ANNEX I: DETAILED DESCRIPTION ANNEX II: DISTINCTIONS BETWEEN THE A OF MITIGATION IMPACT CALCULATIONS 61 A FIRST AND SECOND 1 GT COALITION REPORTS 67 A.1 TECHNOLOGY CATEGORIZATION (J) . 62 A.2 TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY SAVED OR SUBSTITUTED (ES) . .. 62 A.3 CAPACITY FACTORS (CF) . 63 A.4 GRID ELECTRICITY CO2 EMISSION FACTORS (EF) . 63 Sources . 68 A.5 CALCULATED MITIGATION IMPACTS Glossary . 73 FOR THE PROJECT DATASET ASSESSED IN THIS REPORT . 64 Impressum . 74 A.6 SCALED UP MITIGATION IMPACTS USING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE COMMITMENTS . 64 Acronyms . 75 5 FOREWORD +2°C A year ago, world leaders agreed to restrict global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. Yet the latest Emissions Gap Report from UN Environment predicts that we are actually heading for global warming of up to 3.4°C, even with the pledges made in the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. However, it also predicts that cutting greenhouse gas emissions by another quarter could put us on track for that 2°C promise. This second report from the 1 Gigaton Coalition supports those findings by showing how investing in clean energy for developing countries can help close the emissions gap and create sustainable profitable business opportunities. The vast majority of the national commitments made for the Paris Agreement include energy efficiency. They have major implications for tackling emissions, poverty and health, while creating jobs, better working conditions and economic growth. For example, in Mali, daily life is very difficult for women in rural communities around Mopti. But using solar- powered machinery to make and market agricultural products, at least offers a helping hand. They use more efficient cooking stoves to reduce wood collection by up to 60% and black carbon emissions by up to 90%. As well as the benefits for health and education, the resulting financial security and independence improves life for the community and leads to more women being involved in decision making. This is just one of the many clean energy projects in developing countries that the report says will reduce emissions by over 100 million tons a year in 2020. More importantly, it gives a good indication of challenges that will arise from scaling up such efforts to tackle the much bigger emissions gap of 12 gigatons needed to reach the 2°C target. As one gigaton is roughly equivalent to the annual emissions from all road, rail and air transport in the European Union, every single gigaton is crucial. The 1 Gigaton Coalition is supported by the Government of Norway and UN Environment. It supports efforts to reduce emissions by improving the reporting of reductions achieved through renewable energy and energy efficiency in developing countries. Climate change is a serious threat to every nation, but the solutions could unify our efforts to improve life for millions of people on this planet. We have already seen the speed and conviction with which this can be agreed in the Kigali Amendment, which will help avoid half a degree of global warming, accelerate cleaner technology and improve energy efficiency. This latest report from the coalition launches just as the Paris Agreement enters into force and just before the signatories gather in Marrakech for this year’s climate talks. We hope its methods and findings will inspire public and private sector decision makers involved in those discussions to take bold action; not only to deliver the vital 2°C target, but to start moving towards the H.E. Børge Brende Erik Solheim Minister of Foreign Affairs United Nations Environment even safer 1.5°C limit. Norway Programme Executive Director and Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations 6 KEY FINDINGS n INTERNATIONALLY SUPPORTED RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROJECTS implemented in