Basin Bridge Board of Inquiry Representation by Nina Arron, submitter 103484 1. I am an urban planner and former Wellington resident. I now live in New Rochelle, New York. 2. I view the proposed flyover as an outdated 20th Century solution to something that I do not believe is even a problem. We are in a time of transition to more sustainable modes of transport and improved walkability, cycling and public transport options over designing solely for the private car. 3. This transition is driven by the desire for a more sustainable transport system, but it is also driven by evidence from many countries that there is a mismatch between transport agencies’ modelling, which assumes that the use of cars will continue to grow on a “business as usual” basis, and a reality that is rapidly undermining that assumption. 4. I have provided an Appendix of supplementary material. This consists of an article which I wrote for Wellington online news site Scoop entitled “Transportation in the 21st Century: The Modelling/Reality Gap”, published on 11 November 2013. Together with this article, I have included the text of three references linked to in the article, showing recent examples from the US, Canada and Australia of transport projects that have failed to meet or even come close to their stated goals because transport modellers projected continued traffic growth which failed to eventuate. 5. This phenomenon can also be observed in New Zealand, as the final article I have supplied, “Kiwi Teens Turn Off Driving”, shows. To quote from the article: A worldwide trend known as "driving ambivalence" has hit young people in New Zealand. Figures show the number of teens getting their licences has dropped drastically in the past five years. Experts cite a variety of reasons for the decline, from the expense of maintaining a vehicle to the dangers of driving. They also say smartphones and social media have rendered the need for teens to get behind the wheel less important. 6. While this phenomenon can been partly attributed to New Zealand-specific factors, such as changes in drivers’ licensing rules, the fact that it is happening in developed countries worldwide suggests that the New Zealand findings are not just a ‘blip’ but reflect a significant social trend. 7. I have included a reference to an article that graphs changes in driver licensing in New Zealand during the period 2003-2013, and also changes in vehicle kilometres travelled in Auckland during that time [1]. 8. It appears to me that the NZ Transport Agency’s transport planning, specifically with regard to the planning of the proposed Basin Reserve flyover, has attempted to deny or minimize the reality of these changes in transport behaviour. For example, in his Evidence in Chief, Mr Tim Kelly states (4.17, p. 17): It is true that traffic counts on many sections of State highways and local roads have exhibited very low or even negative growth in the period since 2007. However, he then goes on to claim (4.18, p. 18): In my view, societal changes (such as a reduced tendency for younger people to own and operate private motor vehicles) are likely to be a relatively minor contributor to the generally low rates of traffic growth observed in the period since 2007. These patterns are more likely to be due to the significant contraction in economic activity which has led to reduced employment, expenditure and transportation demand. In my view, the international and New Zealand evidence both show that societal changes are making a significant difference to the uptake and driving licences and the use of motor vehicles, and that the NZ Transport Agency has failed to demonstrate that it has taken this into account. 9. Given these recent developments, it makes no sense to commit to building an expensive piece of transport infrastructure that will be massive, ugly, destroy the ambience of an iconic part of Wellington, and may well prove to be a white elephant. I understand that alternative options that involve making much smaller, less disruptive and less expensive changes at grade have been presented to the Board. While I have not considered this alternative proposal in detail, at-grade changes make much more sense in an environment in which transport behaviour is rapidly changing, and models based on business-as- usual thinking are becoming increasingly outdated. References [1] Transport Blog (Auckland), “Teens increasingly choosing not to drive” (March 2, 2014), http://transportblog.co.nz/2014/03/02/teens-increasingly-choosing-not-to- drive/ Nina Arron Appendix Documents referred to in representation by Nina Arron, submitter 103484 This document is in three parts: 1) Article by Nina Arron, “Transportation in the 21st century: the modelling/reality gap” 2) Three articles on failures of transport modelling linked from that article 3) Article in Sunday Star-Times, “Kiwi Teens Turn Off Driving” 1) Article by Nina Arron in Scoop (12 November 2013): http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1311/S00089/transportation-in-the-21st-century- the-modelingreality-gap.htm Transportation in the 21st century: The modeling/reality gap Tuesday, 12 November 2013 Transportation in the 21st century: The modeling/reality gap by Nina Arron Traffic modellers seem to be an optimistic breed. The value and construction of many large scale road, bridge and tunnel projects seem to be based on traffic modeling projections that are proving to be overly, or down right wildly, optimistic. There seems to be an idee fixe that traffic will increase, always and forever and ever. Reality however is showing a different trend, a drop in traffic volumes. A few examples are outlined below with links to articles for those who would like to read further.. A US example In Bethesda Maryland, near Washington DC, an 18.8 mile toll highway was begun in 2007. The first segment was opened in 2011 and is falling a long way short of the traffic projections with a correspondingly low toll income. To add to the pain of lower than expected income, costs ballooned from $1billion to $2.4 billion, or $4 billion if interest payments are included. Proponents of the development also predicted that the road would lead to economic development in the area but this has not yet occurred. Considering that a commuter making daily round trip use of the road during rush hour can expect to pay $2,000 a year it is not surprising that many drivers are choosing to avoid it. http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Magazine/September-October-2013/The- Intercounty-Connector/index.php?cparticle=1&siarticle=0#artanc A Canadian example The blog Price Tags outlines a number of traffic predictions in British Columbia that have proven to be widely optimistic. The Port Mann Bridge graph is particularly revealing with the actual traffic volume showing a decrease from 2001 to 2011 while every prediction made (2006, 2007, 2011) consistently and optimistically say the volumes will increase. Surely at some point the traffic modellers will have to admit they were wrong and adjust downward….won’t they…? http://pricetags.wordpress.com/2013/10/03/sightline-british-columbias-traffic-delusion/ An Australian example In Brisbane the multinational AECOM was hired to provide traffic modeling for the Clem7 tunnel. AECOM predicted traffic volume (aka toll revenue) to be a great deal higher than real use. As a result the project is bankrupt and investors are now suing AECOM for misleading them.http://www.tollroadsnews.com/node/5966 And just as there are multiple examples of optimistic predictions leading to costly underperforming roading projects in Canada and the US, this is not the only Australian example of traffic projections being overstated. The Australian (article below) also mentions Sydney’s Lane Cove tunnel. This is now owned by Transurbanhttp://www.transurban.com.au/ which paid $600 million for the asset, $1 billion LESS than its construction costs and now receives all of the toll revenue.http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/government-wins-battle- for-bankrupt-clem7-tunnel/story-fn91v9q3-1226728864804 A New Zealand example? If New Zealand’s Roads of National Significance share the same overly optimistic traffic modeling and the government decides to sell the assets rather than continue to lose money on debt servicing, then companies like Transurban can buy up these assets for less than their construction cost, set toll rates and own the toll revenue for ever. For more examples follow this link http://daily.sightline.org/blog_series/dude-where-are- my-cars/ Clark Williams-Derry has compiled quite a list of traffic modeling optimism. Nina Arron Bio Nina Arron is an urban planner with a passion for Pedestrian Oriented Development. A past resident of Wellington, Nina is currently living in New Rochelle, New York where she has just begun a new project Walk Your Community encouraging people to define their community and then walk it. She has defined her community geographically and is currently walking the 175 miles of streets of New Rochelle. You can read about the project and her progress on her website and blogwww.urbanafoot.com. Better yet, set your own community parameters, start walking, and share your stories with Nina on www.urbanafoot.com\ ENDS 2) Articles linked from Arron (2013) “A US example” Bethesda Magazine (Sept/Oct 2013), “The Road Less Traveled” http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Magazine/September-October- 2013/The-Intercounty-Connector/index.php?cparticle=1&siarticle=0#artanc [Note: To save space, only the opening illustration of this article has been included in this document. All illustrations are available online.] The Road Less Traveled The Intercounty Connector promised a lot of things to Montgomery County residents.