UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Political Accountability at the Local Level in Tanzania A Dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Barak Daniel Hoffman Committee in charge: Professor Clark C. Gibson, Co-Chair Professor Stephan M. Haggard, Co-Chair Professor Peter A. Gourevitch Professor Mathew D. McCubbins Professor James E. Rauch 2006 Copyright Barak Daniel Hoffman, 2006 All rights reserved The Dissertation of Barak Daniel Hoffman is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and from for publication on microfilm: _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ Co-Chair _______________________________________________________________________ Co-Chair University of California, San Diego 2006 iii Table of Contents Signature Page.................................................................................................................. iii List of Figures................................................................................................................. viii List of Tables .................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... xi Vita .................................................................................................................................. xiv Abstract............................................................................................................................ xv Chapter I: Introduction to Local Government in Tanzania......................................... 1 I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. Theoretical Foundations................................................................................................. 4 A. Political and Party Institutions ................................................................................... 4 B. Fiscal Theories of Governance................................................................................... 7 III. Dissertation Plan......................................................................................................... 10 A. General Argument.................................................................................................... 11 B. Empirical Hypotheses .............................................................................................. 13 IV. A Brief History of Tanzania ....................................................................................... 15 V. A Brief History of Local Government in Tanzania ..................................................... 21 Chapter II: The Structure of Political Accountability at the Local Level................. 29 I. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 29 II. Chains of Accountability and Incentives they Create.................................................. 29 A. Domestic Institutional Accountability ..................................................................... 30 B. Domestic Party Accountability ................................................................................ 37 C. External Accountability............................................................................................ 44 III. Survey and Ethnographic Evidence on Accountability .............................................. 46 A. Survey Evidence ...................................................................................................... 46 iv B. Results from Ethnographic Studies and Interviews ................................................. 52 C. Summing-Up: Structures of Accountability and Perceptions of Effectiveness ...... 57 IV. Argument and Hypotheses.......................................................................................... 58 A. Argument ................................................................................................................. 59 B. Hypotheses ............................................................................................................... 64 V. Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 67 Chapter III: Policy and Projects at the District Level ................................................ 68 I. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 68 II. Tanzania’s Poverty Reduction Strategy....................................................................... 70 A. Vision 2025.............................................................................................................. 71 B. National Poverty Eradication Strategy (NPES) ....................................................... 71 C. Tanzania Assistance Strategy (TAS)........................................................................ 73 D. Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) .............................................................. 73 E. National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (NSGRP)......................... 75 F. Analysis of Poverty Reduction Strategies ................................................................ 77 G. Local Government Reform Program (LGRP).......................................................... 81 III. Legitimizing and Executing Poverty Reduction Polices ............................................ 84 A. Direct Public Consultation....................................................................................... 85 B. Eschewing Parliament.............................................................................................. 87 C. Why MPs Accept Their Diminutive Role................................................................ 89 D. Donor Influences...................................................................................................... 91 IV. Hypotheses for Development Policy and Projects ..................................................... 92 A. Actors....................................................................................................................... 92 B. Incentives ................................................................................................................. 93 C. Capabilities............................................................................................................... 97 D. Hypotheses............................................................................................................... 98 V. External Policies and Projects Districts Implement................................................... 101 A. Aggregate Analysis of Policies and Projects ......................................................... 102 B. Policies and Projects where Executive Dominance May Be Weak ....................... 111 v 1. Opposition Party Control and Low Revenue Base ............................................. 112 2. Councils with Significant Revenue Bases .......................................................... 115 C. Political Benefits for Local Politicians................................................................... 118 VI. Conclusion................................................................................................................ 120 Chapter IV: Local Government Taxation in Tanzania............................................. 122 I. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 122 II. History of Local Government Taxes in Tanzania...................................................... 124 A. First Period of Local Government ......................................................................... 125 1. Rural Councils .................................................................................................... 127 2. Urban Councils ................................................................................................... 135 B. Decentralization ..................................................................................................... 140 C. Revival of Local Government................................................................................ 143 1. Rural Councils .................................................................................................... 145 2. Urban Councils ................................................................................................... 147 D. Analysis.................................................................................................................. 148 III. Mobility and Political Accountability....................................................................... 152 IV. Model and Hypotheses ............................................................................................. 158 V. Taxation and Economic Sector Data.......................................................................... 163 VI. Empirical Analysis ................................................................................................... 168 A. Data and Method...................................................................................................