ߞҔᆅၰӸӧ༏ǻɡаҁ୯ሌՉၗ਑௖૸ϐ Is bank lending channel functional? An analysis of data in Taiwan. ߋিዝ 1* ғزࣴ !س୯ҥ჏ကεᏢ! ᔈҔ࿶ᔮ 1 *[email protected] ᄔा ፓ᏾ճ౗ѐ่మޣɡճ౗ᆅၰаϷߞҔᆅၰɡς೏ቶݱ૸ፕǺ߻ڋε໺ሀᐒٿԾவ1980ԃжଆǴ೤ჾࡹ฼ϐ ǶҁЎట٬ҔӛໆԾس᏾ঁߎᑼᡏډёສၗߎॷҗ೤ჾࡹ฼໺ሀޑໆۓ೸ၸࢌ΋ޣສීՉࣁǹࡕکѱ൑٠ቹៜॷී ӵՖڀय़ӛǺ΋ǵύѧሌՉϐ೤ჾࡹ฼πٿ଑ᘜ (Panel VAR) ϩձ௖૸ך଑ᘜኳࠠ (VAR) аϷଓᙫၗ਑ӛໆԾך ଑ךǵӸී฻ᕴᡏϷߎᑼᡂኧǹΒǵаҁ୯ሌՉϐଓᙫၗ਑Ǵ຾ՉӛໆԾීܫሽǵނளǵ܌೸ၸߞҔᆅၰቹៜ୯҇ ǵӸීǵ࡭Ԗၗౢ฻࿶ᔮࢲ୏Ƕჴ᛾่݀ว౜Ǵීܫځ୯ϐঁձሌՉךࢂց೸ၸߞҔᆅၰቹៜڀᘜǴ௖૸೤ჾࡹ฼π ࿶ᔮޑϐǴߞҔᆅၰᆶሌՉقᆅၰ٠ό΋ठǴඤීܫሌՉޑ੟ကکቚуΨᒿϐวғǴԶ೭ීܫᒿ๱೤ჾᆙᕭǴሌՉ ࢲ୏ϐ໔ޑᜢᖄ܄ம১ᗋԖࡑ୘ᄮǶ ଑ᘜךǵߞҔᆅၰǵӛໆԾڋᜢᗖӷǺ೤ჾࡹ฼໺ሀᐒ ق߻ .1 ฻࿶ᔮᆶۓሽᛙނᆶۓǴаၲԋߎᑼᛙڀ೤ჾࡹ฼ࢂࡰύѧሌՉ࿶җፓ௓೤ჾᕴीኧǵճ౗Нྗ฻೤ჾࡹ฼π ߏᇻว৖ϐനಖ࿶ᔮҞ኱ǶฅԶǴ೤ჾࡹ฼ૈցԖਏԶЪ፾ਔӦౢғѧՉႣ೛ϐਏޑϐਏ݀Ǵ٠ߦ຾࿶ᔮۓߎᑼᛙ ᕴᡏ࿶ᔮ౛ፕΠǴ೭٤ᡂኧޑϐࡕख़ा࿶ᔮᡂኧϐว৖ǴᕕှӧόӕڀॺёаᙖҗᢀჸѧՉ٬Ҕ೤ჾࡹ฼πךǴ݀ ࡹ฼ፂᔐԶϸᔈǶډڙӵՖ ǵഩӢථǵཥђڂݩǴђރࢂᕴᡏ࿶ᔮ౛ፕ዗᝼ϐख़ᗺǶࣁΑᅰёૈ٬౛ፕ಄ӝ౜ჴ࿶ᔮޔ೤ჾࡹ฼᝼ᚒ΋ ᕴᡏᡂز౛ፕ௖૸೤ჾࡹ฼ӵՖቹៜᕴᡏ࿶ᔮǶԶࣴٮਔжङඳΠ઱઱ගޑӧόӕޣǵཥഩӢථǵ೤ჾᏢࢴ฻Ꮲڂ ӧǶ܌ϐख़ᗺڋ೤ჾࡹ฼໺ሀᐒزኧӵՖӢᔈ೤ჾࡹ฼ፂᔐวғᡂ୏Ǵջࣁࣴ ྗޑॺᖼວၗౢਔǴౢғΑεໆךԃΟД྽ਔऍ୯ᖄٖྗഢ౛٣཮ୋЬৢ Donald L. Kohn ම߄ҢǺȨ྽ 2010 Ԗᡉ๱Զᐱҥس࿶ᔮᡏکୋౢࠔǴѬॺόϼёૈӧߎᑼѱ൑ޑεໆሌՉྗഢࣁᖼວၗౢޑബ೷р܌ഢߎਏ݀ǴǾǶ ๏ၰٮ೤ჾډ໺಍ᢀᗺ٠ό΋ठǴȐ໺಍΢ȑமፓྗഢߎޑ೤ჾࡹ฼܈΋ኳࠠൂޑ೚ӭ௲ࣽਜ΢کϐਏ݀ǶԜᢀᗺ ᔠຎ೭చᆅၰǶȩکزॺሡाвಒӦࣴךӢ݀ᜢ߯Ƕ౜ӧޑ೯ᑩ೭చጕډ ࿶ᔮ૰ଏǴࠅΨᏤठऍ୯ሌՉޑు؈کߎᑼӒᐒޑᝄ৚ל٣ჴ΢Ǵ྽ऍ୯ᖄྗ཮ჴࡼߚ໺಍೤ჾࡹ฼Ҕаჹ ᏾ঁ࿶ᔮᡏډவྗഢߎز׫ΕࣴޣӭᏢ׳ᑫ፪Ǵޑཥޑ೤ჾࡹ฼ܭഢߎᎩᚐεᑩ๞ǶΨӢԜǴെᒬΓॺჹྗޑسᡏ Ƕڋ໺ሀᐒޑس ΋ࢂճ౗ᆅၰ(interest rate channel)Ǵᙖҗፓ᏾ճ౗ѐ่మѱځς೏ቶݱ૸ፕǺڋε໺ሀᐒٿԾவ 1980 ԃжǴ ᏾ঁߎᑼᡏډёສၗߎॷҗ೤ჾࡹ฼໺ሀޑໆۓΒࣁߞҔᆅၰ (credit channel)Ǵࢌ΋ځສීՉࣁǹک൑٠ቹៜॷී ޑǴᇡࣁӧϦ໒ѱ൑΢ۺᝩ೤ჾ४ኧཷ܍ᆅၰ(bank lending channel) ᢀᗺීܫሌՉޑǶӧߞҔᆅၰЎ᝘΢Ǵ੟ကس ߎᚐǶޑௗቹៜሌՉёаॷීޔኧໆ཮ޑഢߎྗکᡂ୏ ԋࣁۈBernanke and Blinder (1992) ϐࡕǴ໒ ک (଑ᘜኳࠠ (Auto Regressions, VAR) ӧ Sims (1980ךӛໆԾ Ϧ໒ၗޑஒճҔѠ᡼ޑҞزǴҁЎࣴ܄ӭኬޑǶࣁΑᘉкѠ᡼ჴ᛾Ў᝘΢ڀϩ݋೤ჾࡹ฼ਏ݀ϐ዗ߐᕴᡏीໆπ ᆅၰϐೱීܫ೤ჾࡹ฼ᆶሌՉزՉࣁᆶၗߎᝢ௛೷ԋቹៜǴࣴීܫ೤ჾࡹ฼ǴࢂցჹሌՉޑ௦Չ܌਑Ǵٰ௖૸ѧՉ ᆅၰϐቹៜǴಃΒ࿯ීܫᕴᡏၗ਑аϷҁ୯ሌՉၗ਑௖૸ሌՉޑᆶբҔӧҁ୯ሌՉၗ਑ࢂցᡉ๱ǶҁЎ٬ҔѠ᡼่ Ǵനࡕࢂ่݀زϣ৒ᆶ࣬ᜢЎ᝘ǴಃΟ࿯ᇥܴኳࠠǵᡂኧᒧ᏷ᆶၗ਑ϣ৒ǴಃѤ࿯և౜ჴ᛾ࣴڋஒ௖૸೤ჾ໺ሀᐒ кйкт Бӛᔠ૸Ƕزᇥ่ܴፕᆶ҂ٰࣴ ϣ৒ᆶЎ᝘௖૸ڋ೤ჾ໺ሀᐒ .2 ճ౗Нྗǹፓ᏾ख़ຠ౜ک๏Ǵхࡴ೸ၸϦ໒ѱ൑ᏹբǵቹៜ೤ჾᐒኧٮቹៜ೤ჾڀύѧሌՉԖΟε೤ჾࡹ฼π ճ౗НྗǶکഢ౗Ǵቹៜ೤ჾ४ኧǵ೤ჾ୷ኧྗۓ೤ჾ୷ኧǹፓ᏾ݤکኧໆޑීܫ౗Ǵׯᡂຠ౜ ೯೤ᑩ๞౗ǴԜၸำᆀࣁک࿶җόӕ໺ሀᆅၰǴٰቹៜჴ፦ᕴᡏ࿶ᔮࢲ୏ڀMishkin (1995) ߄Ң೤ჾࡹ฼π дၗౢሽ਱Ǵ຾ԶځǴׯᡂճ౗ǵ༊౗ǵሌՉߞҔǵިሽаϷڀϐǴѧՉճҔ೤ჾࡹ฼πقǶඤڋ೤ჾࡹ฼໺ሀᐒ Ǵ٠คֹӄ΋ठϐӅ܄ၮբၸำаϷख़ाޑቹៜ੃຤Ϸ׫ၗ฻ᕴᡏ࿶ᔮࢲ୏Ƕՠ Mishkin ΨࡰрǴ೭٤ᆅၰዴϪ ᛽Ƕ ϐ௖૸Ьाёаϩࣁ೤ჾᢀᗺ (money view) ᆶߞҔᢀᗺ (creditڋ೤ჾࡹ฼໺ሀᐒܭਥᏵ Mishkin (2001)Ǵᜢ ճޑх֖໺಍ڋ׫ၗǴ߄Ң೤ჾࡹ฼໺ሀᐒکᡂ୏཮ቹៜ੃຤ޑ߄ҢǴճ౗ǵ༊౗ǵၗౢሽ਱ޣБय़Ƕ߻ٿ (view ౗ᆅၰǵ༊౗ᆅၰǵၗౢሽ਱ᆅၰ฻ΟᅿǹԶࡕޣ߾ᇡࣁሌՉܫීᆅၰᆶၗౢॄ໸߄ᆅၰΨࢂ೤ჾࡹ฼ቹៜᕴౢр ޑख़ाӢનǶ ϩࣁϖᅿᆅၰǴϩձࣁճ౗ᆅၰǵ༊౗ᆅၰǵ଄൤ᆅၰǵڋஒ೤ჾࡹ฼໺ሀᐒޑKuttner and Mosser (2002) ၁ಒ ߞҔᆅၰаϷၗౢሽ਱ᆅၰǴ૟ᇥܴӵΠǺ ๏ǵٮჴࡼࡕǴ೸ၸׯᡂྗഢߎаϷ೤ჾ୷ኧǴ຾Զቹៜ೤ჾڀճ౗ᆅၰ (interest rate Channel)Ǻ೤ჾࡹ฼π ᆙᕭ೤ჾࡹ฼ޑӵǴύѧሌՉٯ੃຤ཀᜫǶޑޣ੃຤ک׫ၗཀᜫޑቹៜቷ୘؁٠ׯᡂճ౗НྗǶԶճ౗ଆҷ཮຾΋ ೷ԋቷ୘׫ၗϷ੃؁ᐒ཮ԋҁቚуǴ຾΋ޑ੃຤Զόᓯᆽޑޣॷීԋҁගଯǵ੃຤ޑ٬ளჴ፦ճ౗΢ϲǴ೷ԋቷ୘ ຤ޣ੃຤ཀᜫफ़եǶ ׯᡂ༊౗ǴԶቹ؁ሽНྗǴ຾΋ނǵቹៜճ౗аϷڀ༊౗ᆅၰ (exchange rate channel)Ǻ೸ၸჴࡼ೤ჾࡹ฼π д௃ݩόᡂϯǴ཮วғၗߎࢬΕ౜ځᆙᕭ೤ჾࡹ฼Ǵஒ೷ԋҁ୯ճ౗΢ϲǴӧڗӵǴ྽ѧՉ௦ٯ຾рαǶޑៜౢࠔ рαǶޑҁ୯୘ࠔܭ෧ϿǴѦ୯೤ჾຨॶԶҁ୯೤ჾϲॶǴόճ؃ຝǴ೷ԋѦ༊ሡ ቹៜճ౗НྗǴ຾Զ٬ިሽǵό୏ౢሽ਱ǵ༊ሽ฻ၗౢሽ਱ڀ೤ჾࡹ฼πޑ଄൤ᆅၰ (wealth effect)Ǻ྽ѧՉ ੃ܭ׫ၗ฻ЍрǶMishkin (2001) ᇥܴǴҗ܈ݩǴவԶׯᡂ੃຤ރϐ଄൤ޣᆶୖޑቹៜ೭٤ѱ൑؁วғᡂ୏Ǵ຾΋ ೤ჾࡹ฼܄ύε೽ϩࢂϦљި౻ (common stock)Ƕᘉ஭ځߎᑼ଄൤ǴޑᏱԖ܌೽ϩࢂдॺޑၗྍനख़ाޑ΋ғޣ຤ ΋ғёҔၗྍΨගଯǴᏤठ੃຤ቚуǶ຾Զౢғаޑޣ଄൤ሽॶΨӢԜගଯǴ຾Զ٬੃຤ޑ٬ިሽ΢ϲǴৎीൂՏ ϐǴق๏ (M)ʅ ʈި౻ሽ਱ (P_s )ʅ ʈ଄൤ (W) ʅ ʈ੃຤ (C)ʅ ʈᕴౢр (Y)ʅǶඤٮǺ೤ჾڋ໺ሀᐒޑΠ ሽ΢ϲԶިޣள཮ᒿ܌ёЍଛک଄൤ޑ࡭Ԗϐ଄൤ǹӧৎीൂՏ܌཮ε౲ޗ೤ჾࡹ฼ჴࡼЇଆ೤ჾቚ෧ǴΨ཮ቹៜ ቹៜᕴౢрǶ؁ᜫཀቚу੃຤ЍрǴԶ຾΋׳੃຤టఈຫமਗ਼ǵځၗౢຫӭǴޑቚуԜ߻ගΠǴ྽Γॺ ๏ໆǴӕٮሽ਱Ǵՠࢂ೤ჾࡹ฼ቹៜ೤ჾچ໺಍ճ౗ᆅၰѝԵቾ໸ܭၗౢሽ਱ᆅၰ (Asset Price Channel)Ǻҗ ቹៜᕴౢрǶ؁ሽ਱Ǵ຾Զౢғ଄൤ਏ݀ǵ຾΋ޑдऐΦ଄ځሽ฻ߎᑼၗౢᆶި܈Ӧౢ܊ਔΨ཮ቹៜѱ൑΢ፏӵ Ψ཮ቹៜྗഢߎНྗڀ೤ჾࡹ฼πޑѧՉܭ૸ፕǶҗޑሌՉၗౢܭߞҔᆅၰ (Credit Channel)ǺߞҔᢀᗺୃख़ ࿶ᔮࢲ୏ǴӢԜ೤ځҾ཰ቷ୘ሡाӛሌՉॷීаᑼ೯܈ӵঁΓޣȑǴԶ࿶ᔮୖᆶීܫሌՉёສၗߎኧໆȐջሌՉک ϐǴӢࣁѱ൑΢ૻ৲όჹᆀୢᚒ೷ԋѱ൑ق๏ǴஒᏤठ׫ၗᆶ੃຤ЍрΨวғᡂ୏Ƕඤٮၗߎීܫჾࡹ฼ׯᡂሌՉ ૈීܫޑΓීܫکॷສԋҁޑቹៜΑສීΓ܄όֹऍޑ΢ԖҬܰምᛖǴԶύѧሌՉჴࡼ೤ჾࡹ฼ࡕǴ཮Ӣࣁѱ൑΢ ڗৎीൂՏၨόܰکၗߎ෧ϿǴቷ୘ޑрѐܫᆙᕭ೤ჾࡹ฼Ǵ٬ሌՉёສڗӵǴѧՉ௦ٯΚǴ຾Զቹៜჴ፦࿶ᔮǶ Ꮴठ׫ၗЍрϷ੃຤Ѝр෧ϿǶ؁ߞҔສීǴ຾΋ޑளሌՉ ᆅၰᆶၗౢॄ໸߄ᆅၰǶීܫBernanke and Gertler (1995) ฻Ў᝘ஒߞҔᆅၰεౣϩࣁሌՉ ک (Mishkin (1995 ๏ՉࣁǶ೭ᅿ೸ၸሌٮීܫޑӭჲǴ຾ԶቹៜሌՉޑǴӵሌՉྗഢߎᆶӸීໆ܄ࢬ୏ޑس೤ჾ྽ֽᙖҗቹៜሌՉᡏ ೤ჾ܄ӵǴ྽ѧՉჴࡼᆙᕭٯᆅၰ (Bank lending channel)ǶීܫᐒૈǴᆀࣁሌՉޑа໺ሀ೤ჾࡹ฼ቹៜਏ݀ීܫՉ ЍрǴ٠फ़եᕴౢрǶޣ੃຤܈ཀᜫफ़եǴ຾ԶቹៜҾ཰׫ၗࢲ୏ීܫࡹ฼཮٬ሌՉӸීྗഢᆶӸීΠफ़Ǵ೷ԋሌՉ ӵǴ྽ύѧሌՉ௦ٯృॶӭჲǶޑޣ੃຤܈ቷ୘ܭ،ڗၗౢॄ໸߄ᆅၰ (balance-sheet Channel)ǺԜᆅၰЬा кйлй ృॶǹ୘཰ሌՉࣁΑᗉխ଍ᒧ᏷ᆶځճ౗΢ϲǴ٬ቷ୘౜ߎࢬໆ෧ϿǴफ़ե܈೤ჾࡹ฼Ǵ཮೷ԋިሽΠຳ܄Չᆙᕭ ׫ၗЍр෧ϿϷᕴౢрΠफ़ǶޑǴᏤठቷ୘ීܫၰቺ॥ᓀୢᚒǴ཮ӢԜ෧Ͽ ଑ᘜኳࠠаϷଓᙫၗך٬Ҕᕴᡏ࿶ᔮၗ਑ᆶऍ୯ঁձሌՉၗ਑аӛໆԾ (ԜѦǴCarpenter and Demiralp (2012 ܄ว৖Ϸࢬ୏ޑس೤ჾѱ൑ύǴᒿ๱ሌՉᡏޑว౜Ǵ1990 ԃжزࣴځᆅၰǶීܫሌՉޑ଑ᘜᔠຎ੟ကך਑ӛໆԾ ၗޑ፦ǵόሡᛦҬྗഢߎ܄ளߚӸීڗΚΨᡉ๱ගଯǶฅԶǴ୘཰ሌՉԖૈΚૈޑ໸ॄ܄ගଯǴ୘཰ሌՉวՉᆅ౛ ೤ܭ໸ȑǴࡽόሡᛦયྗഢߎǵΨόᗧឦॄ܄໸Ȑջᆅ౛ॄޑௗᆅ౛٠༅໣ၗߎޔ৒ܰ׳ߎٰྍǴ೭ᅿ٬୘཰ሌՉ ೱ่ߡᘐ຋ΑǶޑ೤ჾϐ໔ޑကΠۓ M2 کၰීීܫሌՉޑჾᕴीኧ M2ǹӢԜǴ੟က ࢂǴCarpenter andޑΨቃਗ਼फ़եǹόӕීܫว౜ᆙᕭ೤ჾࡹ฼ϐࡕǴᕴزࣴޑ (Bernanke and Blinder (1992 у׳ၗߎٰྍޑࠅ࣬ϸǴдॺှញǴᒿ๱೤ჾᆙᕭǴҾ཰གྷाᕇளߚሌՉ่݀ޑDemiralp (2012) ว౜ 1990 ԃаࡕ ӸීΠ܄ёૈ཮ቚуǶдॺᗋว౜Ǵ྽ᖄٖճ౗ԖΑ҅ӛፂᔐǴᔈගྗഢϐ΋૓Ҭܰ؃ሡޑᜤǴӢԜჹሌՉສී֚ ޑሡ܌໸ࣁສීॄ܄ᆅ౛ޑӭ׳ᐒ཮ԋҁቚуǴԶ୘཰ሌՉሡाวՉޑ໸΢ϲǴӢࣁ࡭ԖЍ౻஦Њॄ܄फ़ǴԶᆅ౛ ୘཰ሌՉӧ೭ᅿ௃ޑճዎཱུε؃ЬाᕇճٰྍǴԶଓޑճ৲ࢂ୘཰ሌՉڗ໨ᖺීܫϐǴສقεໆၗߎ຾Չᝢၗǹඤ ӭߎᚐǴᏤठສී΢ϲǶ׳ܫ໸ǵаԜᝢ௛ၗߎǵສॄ܄ݩΠ཮ᙖҗගଯᆅ౛ ӵǴٯ዗ߐ᝼ᚒǶޑᕴᡏჴ᛾Ў᝘ޑୢᚒǴԿϞϝࢂ࣬ᜢޑߞҔᆅၰࢂցӸӧޑύڋ೤ჾࡹ฼໺ሀᐒܭᜢ ๏ਔǴٗ٤ଯࡋٮීܫ೤ჾࡹ฼วғǴԶ٬୘཰ሌՉӢԜ෧ϿߞҔ܄Bernanke and Blinder (1992) ၂კᇥܴ྽ᆙᕭ όჹᆀǴӧᆙޑၗૻܭፂᔐ࣬ჹεǶԜѦ Bernanke and Gertler (1989) ࡰрǴҗޑډڙ܌٩ᒘሌՉສීϐঁձቷ୘ ᕭ೤ჾࡹ฼ਔǴ୘཰ሌՉ཮໼ӛჹၗૻၨϿޑቷ୘෧ϿߞҔܫීǴԶЪᏼߥࠔޑ౜ॶᒿᆙᕭ܄೤ჾࡹ฼ϐճ౗΢ϲ ॺךǴޕϐී໨ǶҗԜёܫளሌՉສڗቷ୘Ψ཮ӢԜᜤаޑၗౢॄ໸߄ൾϯǴԶલЮၗૻޑԶᕭНǴӢԶ೷ԋቷ୘ ቹៜǶځϐߞҔᆅၰࢂցӸӧϷڋΨёаவঁᡏᢀᗺٰ௖૸೤ჾࡹ฼໺ሀᐒ 3. ኳࠠᆶၗ਑ᇥܴ ۓኳࠠ೛ 3.1 БݤǶ੝Յزࣴޑᕴᡏीໆኳࠠޑගр΋ঁཥ܌ (଑ᘜ (Vector Autoregressions, VAR) ࣁ Sims (1980ךӛໆԾ εࠠᕴᡏᏊໆኳࠠύޑᜢ߯ǶSims ᇡࣁၸѐޑᕴᡏ࿶ᔮᡂኧϐ໔ڋԖᡂኧ೿ຎࣁϣғᡂኧǴаᗉխҺཀज़܌ࢂஒ ࣁѦғᡂኧǴԶ VAR ёаࡐӳӦᗉխԜ௃׎Ƕۓӵஒࢌ٤ᡂኧ೛ٯǴڋज़ޑԖϼӭόёߞ ϩЎᕴᡏሌՉቫय़аϷঁձሌՉቫय़Ǵᕴᡏ೽ϩ٬Ҕᕭ෧Ԅ VAR ຾Չ଑ᘜϩ݋Ƕᕭ෧Ԅ VARزჴ᛾ࣴޑҁЎ ୏ᄊՉࣁયΕԵቾǶVA R(p ) ኳࠠаޑϣၠᡂኧسӧ฻ԄѓᜐǴஒᡏܫပࡕ໨ޑдᡂኧځပࡕ໨аϷޑيஒᡂኧҁ ତ׎ԄёаቪԋǺં (1) 3.2 ၗ਑ᇥܴ ೽ϩᡂኧᒧ᏷ᆶϣ৒Ƕٿϩࣁᕴᡏቫय़ᆶঁᡏቫय़ǴаΠᇥܴزॊǴҁЎϐჴ᛾ࣴ܌ӵ߻ 3.2.1 ᕴᡏቫय़ၗ਑ ሽࡰኧǵ୯ϣғౢЛᚐѳ෧ࡰኧаϷѨނޣǹ୯ϣғౢЛᚐǵ੃຤ڀճ౗ਂਆ೤ჾࡹ฼πීܨڹаߎᑼ཰႖ ၗک࿶ᔮࢲ୏ޑ࡭ԖਂਆሌՉچǵᕴӸීаϷԖሽ᛾ීܫሽǵ൩཰฻ᕴᡏ࿶ᔮࢲ୏ǹሌՉᕴނ཰౗ϩձਂਆౢрǵ ک٬ҔᕴӸීᡂኧǴҁЎ੝ձஒᕴӸීϩှԋᔈගྗഢϐӸී (Bernanke and Bliner (1992 ܭݩǴԖձރౢॄ໸߄ ၗځቹៜǴΨёаև౜౜ж୘཰ሌՉӢᔈޑᆅၰჹሌՉॄ໸य़ීܫ೸ၸڀ೽ϩǴନΑᔠຎ೤ჾࡹ฼πٿ໸ॄ܄ᆅ౛ ཥว৖ǴаΠ૟၁ॊၗ਑ϣ৒ᆶٰྍǶޑ؃ߎሡ ࿶ᔮޑȋۑ΋ޣ܈୯ϣғౢЛᚐ (Gross Domestic Product, GDP)Ǻࢂࡰ΋ঁ୔ୱӧࢌ΋ࢤਔයϣȋ೯தࢂ΋ԃ ٬Ҕϐύ๮҇୯୯҇ғౢЛᚐၗ܌ख़ाࡰ኱ǶҁЎޑ΋Ӧϐ࿶ᔮᆶว৖܈ѱ൑ሽॶǴࣁᑽໆ΋୯ޑԖౢр܌ࢲ୏ϐ ሽࡰኧаϷ୯ϣғౢЛᚐѳ෧ࡰނޣၗ਑࿶᏾౛ࣁДၗ਑Ǵ٠ϩձа੃຤ۈԾЬीೀϐᕴᡏ಍ीၗ਑৤ Ǵচڗ਑ ኧ଺ѳ෧ǴҗԜᙯඤࣁჴ፦୯ϣғౢЛᚐၗ਑Ƕ кйлк ሽᆶ೯೤ނ࣬ᜢሽ਱Ǵࢂᑽໆޑሽࡰኧ (Consumer Price Index, CPI)Ǻࣁ಍ी΋Ӧۚ҇ϐғࢲᆶമ୍ނޣ੃຤ Ծฅჹኧ٬ҔϐǶڗ࿯ፓ᏾ࡕӆۑԾᕴᡏၗ਑৤ϐДၗ਑Ǵ࿶ڗሽࡰኧၗ਑ࣁނޣख़ाࡰ኱ϐ΋ǶҁЎϐ੃຤ޑᑩ๞ ୯ϣғౢЛᚐѳ෧ࡰኧ (Gross Domestic Product Deflator, GDP Deflator)Ǻࣁ΋ᅿނሽࡰኧǴҔаᑽໆ΋ঁ࿶ᔮ ሽीᆉނࢂаࢌ΋୷යϐޣѳ֡ሽ਱ǶѬஒӜҞ୯ϣғౢЛᚐѳ෧ԋࣁჴॶ୯ϣғౢЛᚐǴԶࡕޑϐനಖౢрسᡏ Ծฅڗ࿯ፓ᏾ࡕӆۑԾᕴᡏၗ਑৤Ǵ࿶ፓ᏾ԋࣁДၗ਑Ǵ٠࿶ڗ୯ϣғౢЛᚐǶҁЎϐ୯ϣғౢЛᚐѳ෧ࡰኧၗ਑ ჹኧ٬ҔϐǶ ௃ݩǴ൩೏ᇡ㵝ࢂޑπբډפൔၿԶπբǴՠۘ҂ڗѨ཰౗ (Unemployment)Ǻཀࡰ΋ঁΓᜫཀ٠ԖૈΚࣁᕇ дᕴᡏ࿶ᔮᡂኧԖஏϪᜢ߯ǶҁЎϐѨ཰ځکǶѨ཰౗ٯКޑ՞܌ޣѨ཰ǶѨ཰౗ࢂമ୏Γα္಄ӝȨѨ཰చҹȩ ԃΜΒД 2014 ډԾᕴᡏၗ਑৤ϐДၗ਑Ǵኬҁය໔ࣁ 1991 ԃ΋Дڗ౗ၗ਑ࣁ ճ౗Ƕߎᑼ཰ӧᔼၮޑճ౗ (Overnight Interbank Call-Loan Rate, OICLR)Ǻࢂࡰߎᑼᐒᄬ໔ॷສၗߎීܨڹ႖ ഢྗۓᙯߎϷᆢ࡭ݤڬၗߎࢬΕᆶࢬрǴࣁӢᔈВதᔼၮڋᆶ׫ၗᒿਔӧᡂ୏Ǵதคݤྗዴ௓ීܫၸำύǴӸීǵ д཮঩ፓҔځਔǴӛ؃Ϧљǵߞૼ׫ၗϦљǵແ༊ֽ฻ԖၗߎሡچύЈ཮঩ȐхࡴሌՉǵ౻ීܨሡाǴߎᑼ཰ޑߎ ීܨӆፓӣϐߎᑼ཰ڹճ౗ࣁ႖ීܨڹϐǴ႖ق۶Ԝၗߎᑼ೯ȑǴඤޣཀջሌՉ཰ීܨፓ࿯ၗߎȐීܨ೯தаӕ཰ ճ౗у៾ීܨڹճ౗ࣁߎᑼ཰႖ීܨڹ႖ޑॷීճ౗Ǵࣁ೤ჾѱ൑อයճ౗ࡰ኱ϐ΋ǶҁЎ٬Ҕڹ႖ޑύЈ཮঩໔ ၗ਑ٰྍٰԾύѧሌՉ಍ीၗ਑ޑу៾ѳ֡ճ౗ǴԜᡂኧීܨڹ႖ޑԋҬߎᚐࣁ៾ኧीᆉීܨڹѳ֡Ǵࢂа྽В႖ ԃΜΒДǶ 2014 ډߎᑼ಍ीДൔǴኬҁය໔ࣁ 1991 ԃ΋Дޑ৤ύ р୧Ԗ܈୘཰ሌՉёаᙖҗวՉϦљ໸ܭሌՉၗౢॄ໸߄Ѱ߄ၗౢ೽ϩǴҗܭ࡭Ԗ (Securities)ǺឦچԖሽ᛾ य़ቹៜǶࣁਂਆሌՉԜ΋ၗౢǴҁЎ᏾౛ॄޑ஥ٰ܌ᝢ௛ၗߎǴӢԜёаԖਏӦӢᔈ೤ჾࡹ฼٠ೕᗉࡹ฼ٰچሽ᛾ ሽࡰኧჴނޣᡂኧǴ၀ၗ਑ճҔ੃຤چ׫ၗ໨Ҟ่ӝԋࣁԖሽ᛾چ᛾ޑҁ୯ሌՉၗౢॄ໸߄ύჹߎᑼᆶߚߎᑼᐒᄬ 2014 ډߎᑼ಍ीДൔǴኬҁය໔ࣁ 1991 ԃ΋ДޑԾύѧሌՉ಍ीၗ਑৤ύڗԾฅჹኧࡕ٬ҔϐǶၗ਑ڗ፦ϯǴ٠ ԃΜΒДǶ Ьाճዎٰྍߡࢂаၨځ཰୍Ǵීܫک཰୍Ьा໣ύӧ࿶ᔼӸීޑ୘཰ሌՉޑtotal loans)Ǻ໺಍) ීܫሌՉᕴ ቹៜሌՉڀ೤ჾࡹ฼πزࢂࣴޑճৡǶҁЎҞޑϐ໔ීܫӸීᆶڗрສීǴᖺܫճ౗ޑճ౗ॷΕӸීǵаၨଯޑե Ծฅჹኧࡕ٬ҔϐǶၗڗሽࡰኧჴ፦ϯǴ٠ނޣՉࣁǴ၀ၗ਑ճҔ੃຤ීܫᡂኧਂਆሌՉීܫՉࣁǴӢԜаᕴීܫ ԃΜΒДǶ 2014 ډߎᑼ಍ीДൔǴኬҁය໔ࣁ 1991 ԃ΋Дޑ਑ԾύѧሌՉ಍ीၗ਑৤ύ ޑК౗ۓ໸ගӸ΋ॄځߎᑼᐒᄬǴჹ؃ࡋࣁύѧሌՉ٩ݤाڋᔈගྗഢϐӸී (reservable deposits)Ǻྗഢߎ ሌՉǶਥᏵύޑԖ֎ԏӸීᆶബ೷೤ჾߞҔфૈڀߎᑼᐒᄬЬाࢂࡰޑࡋǶӧԜࡰᆀڋޑ؃ഢߎǴаӢᔈЍбሡྗ යӸී฻ۓѧሌՉݤǴߎᑼᐒᄬᔈගӸྗഢߎϐӸීጄൎԖЍ౻ӸීǵࢲයӸීǵᓯᆽӸීǵ᏾Ӹ᏾бᓯᆽӸаϷ ໨ҞǶҁЎஒҁ୯ሌՉӸී໨Ҟύޑ೭Ѥ໨уᕴԶளᔈගྗഢϐӸීᡂኧǴаԜਂਆྗഢߎࡹ฼ჹሌՉӸܫීՉࣁ ԃΜΒДǶ 2014 ډߎᑼ಍ीДൔǴኬҁය໔ࣁ 1991 ԃ΋Дޑၗ਑ٰྍٰԾύѧሌՉ಍ीၗ਑৤ύޑቹៜǶԜᡂኧޑ Ծฅჹኧࡕ٬ҔϐǶڗሽࡰኧჴ፦ϯǴ٠ނޣ၀ၗ਑ճҔ੃຤ ܈යӸൂۓӵёᙯᡣٯਔǴЬ୏ᑈཱུӦаวՉॄ໸Ǵ؃໸ (managed liability)Ǻ྽୘཰ሌՉԖၗߎሡॄ܄ᆅ౛ ǴԜՉࣁӧሌՉᆅ౛΢ᆀࣁॄ؃ၗߎሡىளεໆЪեԋҁϐၗߎǴаᅈڗдߎᑼӕ཰ᆶύѧሌՉᑼ೯ॷීǴаځӛ ǴаϷߎᑼӕ཰ϐ໔ᐟڋ୘཰ሌՉࣁӢᔈ೤ჾ྽ֽჹሌՉ֎ԏӸීϐᝄ਱ᆅޑ໸ᆅ౛ (liability management)Ƕऍ୯ යӸൂаϷ֎ۓၗߎٰྍǴЬा଺ݤϩձࣁǴӧ೤ჾѱ൑΢р୧ёᙯᡣޑཥᑉ؃཰୍ᝡݾǴၱᑈཱུӛѦ൨ޑਗ਼О዗ ǵவᖄٖ୷ߎѱ൑ (Federalچ໸ǵவߎᑼѱ൑΢วՉߎᑼ໸ॄ܄дߚ໺಍ӸීځයӸී฻ۓԏճ౗ၨեϐεᚐ ᝼ (Repurchase agreement, Repos)Ǵ฻Ѧ೽ٰڐࢂճҔߕວӣ܈Funds) ǵኻࢪऍϡ (Eurodollar)ǵவ୯ѦϩЍᐒᄬǵ ຾Չॄ໸ᆅ౛Ƕࣁٰچ୘཰ሌՉΨԖԜว৖ᖿ༈ǴӚሌՉ೸ၸวՉёᙯᡣӸൂаϷӚᅿߎᑼ໸ޑྍॷΕၗߎǶѠ᡼ ǵӛߎᑼӕ཰ॷΕǵӛύچයӸൂǵߎᑼ໸ۓΑਂਆॄ໸ᆅ౛Ԝ࿶ᔮࢲ୏ǴҁЎ่ӝ୘཰ሌՉၗౢॄ໸߄΢ёᙯᡣ ہԾߎᑼᆅ౛ڗ໸ᡂኧǶҁ୯ሌՉᕴᡏၗ਑аϷঁձሌՉၗ਑ࣣࣁॄ܄ѧሌՉᑼ೯аϷ୯Ѧॄ໸฻໨ҞǴԋࣁᆅ౛ Ծฅჹኧࡕ٬ڗሽࡰኧჴ፦ϯǴ٠ނޣДၗ਑Ǵኬҁය໔ࣁ 2006 ԃ΋ДԿ 2014 ԃΜΒДǶ၀ၗ਑ճҔ੃຤ޑ঩཮ ҔϐǶ кйлл 3.2.2 ঁձቫय़ၗ਑ ҁ୯ሌՉӅीԖѤΜৎǺᆵ᡼ሌՉ Bank of Taiwanǵᆵ᡼βܭ঩཮ϐߎᑼᐒᄬӈ߄ǴہҗύѧሌՉᆶߎᑼᆅ౛ ӦሌՉ Land Bank of Taiwanǵӝբߎ৤୘཰ሌՉ Taiwan Cooperative Bankǵಃ΋୘཰ሌՉ First Commercial Bankˣ๮ࠄ ୘཰ሌՉ Hua Nan Commercial Bankǵᄆϯ୘཰ሌՉ Chang Hwa Commercial Bankǵ΢ੇ୘཰ᓯᆽሌՉ The Shanghai Commercial and Savings BankǵѠч൤ٖ୘཰ሌՉ Taipei Fubon Commercial Bank Co., Ltd.ǵ୯ੀШ๮୘཰ሌՉ Cathay United Bankǵύ୯ᒡрΕሌՉ The Export-Import Bank of the Republic of Chinaǵଯ໢ሌՉ Bank of Kaohsiungǵӂᙦ୯ሞ ୘཰ሌՉ Mega International Commercial Bank Co., Ltd.ǵӄ୯ၭ཰ߎ৤ Agricultural Bank of Taiwanǵ޸ᄡ(Ѡ᡼)୘཰ሌ Չ Citibank Taiwan Ltd.ǵᐞ౰(Ѡ᡼)୘཰ሌՉ ANZ (Taiwan) Bank Ltd.ǵύ๮໒วπ཰ሌՉ China Development Industrial Bank Inc.ǵᆵ᡼π཰ሌՉ Industrial Bank of Taiwanǵᆵ᡼ύλҾ཰ሌՉ Taiwan Business Bankǵ෦Ѻ୯ሞ୘཰ሌՉ Standard Chartered Bank (Taiwan) Ltd.ǵѠύ୘཰ሌՉ Taichung Commercial Bankǵ٧ࠤ୘཰ሌՉ King’s Town Bankǵ㺍 ᙦ(Ѡ᡼)୘཰ሌՉ The HSBC Bank (Taiwan) Limitedǵྷᑫ୘཰ሌՉ Bank of Taipeiǵ๮ੀ୘཰ሌՉ Hwatai Bankǵᆵ᡼ ཥӀ୘཰ሌՉ Shin Kong Commercial Bankǵ໚ߞ୘཰ሌՉ Sunny Bankǵ݈ߞ୘཰ሌՉ Bank of Pan ShinǵΟߞ୘཰ሌ Չ Cota Commercial Bankǵᖄٖ୘཰ሌՉ Union Bank of Taiwanǵᇻܿ୯ሞ୘཰ሌՉ Far Eastern International Bankǵϡ ε୘཰ሌՉ Yuanta Commercial Bankǵ҉ᙦ୘཰ሌՉ Bank SinoPac Company Limitedǵҏξ୘཰ሌՉ E. Sun Commercial Bankǵഩ୷୘཰ሌՉ KGI Bankǵࢃ৖(Ѡ᡼)୘཰ሌՉ DBS Bank(Taiwan) Ltd.ǵѠཥ୯ሞ୘཰ሌՉ Taishin International Bankǵε౲୘཰ሌՉ Ta Chong Bank Ltd.ǵВ౰୯ሞ୘཰ሌՉ Jih Sun International BankǵӼੀ୘཰ሌՉ EnTie Commercial Bank Ϸύ୯ߞૼ୘཰ሌՉ Chinatrust Commercial BankǶ ௖૸ϐख़ाᡂኧ΢Ԗ܌ਔ໔ׇӈၗ਑ǴӧҁЎޑӄ୯ၭ཰ߎ৤аϷύ୯ᒡрΕሌՉܭ΢ॊѤΜৎሌՉύǴҗ Ӝࣁഩ୷୘཰ሌՉǴӢԜഩ׳ύǴ2015 ԃ΋ДǴ࿤ੀሌՉ҅ԄځલЮǴӢԜϒаকନǴӅ௦ीΟΜΖৎሌՉǹ܌ όֹ᏾Ǵᐞ౰ǵ༊ᙦǵྷᑫǵࢃ৖฻ѤৎሌՉޑਔ໔ׇӈၗ਑ܭਔ໔ׇӈჴࣁ࿤ੀሌՉϐၗ਑ǶԜѦǴҗޑ୷ሌՉ ϐǴҁЎӅࢂ٬ҔΟΜѤৎҁ୯ሌՉ 2006 ԃ΋ДԿ 2014 ԃΜΒДϐѳᑽଓᙫၗ਑Ǵќقࣁ҂ѳᑽϐଓᙫၗ਑ǹඤ ಍Ƕس಍ीၗ਑৤୏ᄊࢗ၌ޑ঩཮ሌՉֽہԖၗ਑᏾౛Ծߎᑼᅱ࿎ᆅ౛܌ԖѤৎҁ୯ሌՉࣁ҂ѳᑽၗ਑Ƕ ձሌՉঁܭՉࣁǴීܫݩаϷރၗౢॄ໸߄ޑॺ٬ҔΎঁᡂኧǺࣁਂਆঁձሌՉך຾Չଓᙫၗ਑ VA R ਔǴ යӸൂۓӸී (transaction deposits)ǵёᙯᡣ܄࡭Ԗ (Securities)ǵҬܰچloans)ǵԖሽ᛾) ීܫᡂኧᒧ᏷ࣁᕴޑ ளѳ෧ࡰ܌ݩǴᕴᡏᡂኧᒧ᏷ࣁ୯҇ރаϷᕴᡏ࿶ᔮڀNegotiable Certificates of Deposit, NCD)ǹࣁਂਆ೤ჾࡹ฼π) Ծฅჹኧڗளѳ෧ࡰኧჴ፦ϯǴ٠܌ၗౢॄ໸߄ᡂኧ೿а୯҇ޑύǴሌՉځճ౗аϷѨ཰౗Ƕීܨڹኧǵߎᑼ཰႖ ٬ҔϐǶ 4.