COMMUTER RAIL SYST EM ST UDY FINAL REPORT • MAY 2010 MARICOPA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS COMMUTER RAIL SYSTEM STUDY FINAL May 2010 SUBMITTED BY: 7720 NORTH 16TH STREET SUITE 100 PHOENIX, AZ 85020 TABLE OF CONTENTS ES.1.0 Commuter Rail System Study Overview _____________________________ ES-1 ES.1.1 How does this Study Relate to Previous Studies? ________________________ ES-1 ES.2.0 Description of Commuter Rail _____________________________________ ES-2 ES.2.1 Why is there a Need for a Commuter Rail System?_______________________ ES-2 ES.2.2 What Type of Rail Vehicles Would be Used?____________________________ ES-2 ES.2.3 Where Would Passenger Stations be Located?__________________________ ES-3 ES.3.0 Description of System Study Alternatives ___________________________ ES-4 ES.3.1 What Stand-Alone Alternatives Were Considered? _______________________ ES-4 ES.3.2 How Many Riders Would Each Stand-Alone Alternative Carry in 2030? _______ ES-4 ES.3.3 What is the Cost of Each Stand-Alone Alternative? _______________________ ES-7 ES.3.4 What Interlined Alternatives Were Considered? _________________________ ES-7 ES.3.5 How Many Riders Would Each Interlined Alternative Carry in 2030? _________ ES-8 ES.3.6 What is the Cost of Each Interlined Alternative? _________________________ ES-9 ES.4.0 Comparison of Sytsem Study Alternatives __________________________ ES-10 ES.4.1 What Evaluation Factors Were Used to Compare Alternatives? ____________ ES-10 ES.4.2 How Did the Stand-Alone Alternatives Rank in Comparison to Each Other? __ ES-11 ES.4.2.1 Total Daily Ridership Forecast ____________________________________ ES-12 ES.4.2.2 Travel Time Savings____________________________________________ ES-12 ES.4.2.3 Cost Effectiveness _____________________________________________ ES-13 ES.4.2.4 Implementation or Constructability _________________________________ ES-14 ES.4.3 How Did the Interlined Alternatives Rank in Comparison to Each Other? _____ ES-15 ES.4.3.1 Total Daily Ridership Forecast ____________________________________ ES-16 ES.4.3.2 Capital Cost per Mile ___________________________________________ ES-17 ES.4.3.3 O&M Cost per Rider ____________________________________________ ES-18 ES.5.0 System Study Alternatives Phasing Recommendations _______________ ES-19 ES.5.1 Which Segment of the Commuter Rail System Should be Implemented First? _ ES-19 ES.5.2 Which Segment of the Commuter Rail System Should be Implemented Second? ___ ______________________________________________________________ ES-23 ES.5.3 In What Order Should the Remaining Segments of the Commuter Rail System be Implemented?___________________________________________________ ES-24 i ES.6.0 Implementation Steps ___________________________________________ ES-25 ES.6.1 What Type of Agreement with the Railroads Would be Needed to Operate Commuter Rail Service? ___________________________________________________ ES-25 ES.6.2 Who Would Operate the Commuter Rail Service?_______________________ ES-25 ES.6.3 How Would Regional Commuter Rail Service be Governed? ______________ ES-25 ES.6.4 What Governance Structures Have Peer Cities Established for Commuter Rail Systems? ______________________________________________________ ES-28 ES.6.5 What Funding Options are Available to Implement Commuter Rail? _________ ES-28 ES.6.6 How Have Peer Cities Funded Commuter Rail Systems? _________________ ES-31 ES.6.7 What Near-Term Implementation Steps are Needed? ____________________ ES-32 ES.6.8 What Long Term Implementation Steps are Needed? ____________________ ES-34 1.0 Study Overview _______________________________________________________ 1-1 1.1 Introduction_______________________________________________________ 1-1 1.2 Background ______________________________________________________ 1-1 1.3 Purpose of the System Study_________________________________________ 1-2 1.4 Need for a Commuter Rail System_____________________________________ 1-2 1.5 Potential Benefits and Goals of Commuter Rail ___________________________ 1-4 1.6 System Study Process ______________________________________________ 1-5 1.7 Organization of the System Study _____________________________________ 1-6 2.0 Existing and Future Conditions__________________________________________ 2-1 2.1 Introduction_______________________________________________________ 2-1 2.2 Summary of Findings _______________________________________________ 2-5 2.2.1 Demographics ___________________________________________________ 2-5 2.2.2 Land Use _______________________________________________________ 2-5 2.2.3 Railroad Characteristics ___________________________________________ 2-5 2.2.4 Highway Characteristics ___________________________________________ 2-5 2.2.5 Transit Service __________________________________________________ 2-5 2.2.6 Travel Patterns __________________________________________________ 2-6 2.3 Grand Avenue Corridor _____________________________________________ 2-7 2.3.1 Demographics ___________________________________________________ 2-7 2.3.2 Land Use _______________________________________________________ 2-8 2.3.3 Railroad Characteristics __________________________________________ 2-13 2.3.4 Highway Characteristics __________________________________________ 2-17 2.3.5 Transit Service _________________________________________________ 2-23 2.3.6 Travel Patterns _________________________________________________ 2-27 ii 2.3.7 Summary ______________________________________________________ 2-27 2.4 Yuma West Corridor_______________________________________________ 2-29 2.4.1 Demographics __________________________________________________ 2-29 2.4.2 Land Use ______________________________________________________ 2-30 2.4.3 Railroad Characteristics __________________________________________ 2-35 2.4.4 Highway Characteristics __________________________________________ 2-39 2.4.5 Transit Service _________________________________________________ 2-43 2.4.6 Travel Patterns _________________________________________________ 2-47 2.4.7 Summary ______________________________________________________ 2-47 2.5 Southeast Corridor ________________________________________________ 2-49 2.5.1 Demographics __________________________________________________ 2-49 2.5.2 Land Use ______________________________________________________ 2-51 2.5.3 Railroad Characteristics __________________________________________ 2-55 2.5.4 Highway Characteristics __________________________________________ 2-59 2.5.5 Transit Service _________________________________________________ 2-63 2.5.6 Travel Patterns _________________________________________________ 2-67 2.5.7 Summary ______________________________________________________ 2-67 2.6 Tempe Corridor __________________________________________________ 2-69 2.6.1 Demographics __________________________________________________ 2-69 2.6.2 Land Use ______________________________________________________ 2-70 2.6.3 Railroad Characteristics __________________________________________ 2-75 2.6.4 Highway Characteristics __________________________________________ 2-79 2.6.5 Transit Service _________________________________________________ 2-83 2.6.6 Travel Patterns _________________________________________________ 2-87 2.6.7 Summary ______________________________________________________ 2-87 2.7 Chandler Corridor_________________________________________________ 2-89 2.7.1 Demographics __________________________________________________ 2-89 2.7.2 Land Use ______________________________________________________ 2-90 2.7.3 Railroad Characteristics __________________________________________ 2-95 2.7.4 Highway Characteristics __________________________________________ 2-99 2.7.5 Transit Service ________________________________________________ 2-103 2.7.6 Travel Patterns ________________________________________________ 2-107 2.7.7 Summary _____________________________________________________ 2-107 2.8 Future Extensions _______________________________________________ 2-109 iii 3.0 Alternatives Development and Evaluation _________________________________ 3-1 3.1 Introduction_______________________________________________________ 3-1 3.2 Development of Alternatives _________________________________________ 3-2 3.2.1 Assumptions ____________________________________________________ 3-4 3.3 Description of Alternatives ___________________________________________ 3-8 3.3.1 Round 1: Preliminary “Maximum Service” Alternatives ____________________ 3-8 3.3.2 Round 2: Stand-Alone Base Alternatives and Combined Base Alternatives____ 3-9 3.3.3 Round 3A: Interlined Alternatives ___________________________________ 3-11 3.3.4 Round 3B: Alternate Interlined Alternatives ___________________________ 3-12 3.4 Ridership Forecasting Results _______________________________________ 3-12 3.4.1 Round 1: Preliminary “Maximum Service” Alternatives Ridership Forecasting Results _______________________________________________________ 3-13 3.4.2 Round 2: Stand-Alone Base and Combined Base Alternatives Ridership Forecasting Results______________________________________________ 3-13 3.4.3 Round 3A: Interlined Alternatives Ridership Forecasting Results___________ 3-28 3.4.4 Round 3B: Alternate Interlined Alternatives Ridership Forecasting Results ___ 3-33 3.5 Cost Estimates ___________________________________________________ 3-35 3.5.1 Round 1: Preliminary “Maximum Service” Alternatives Cost Estimates ______ 3-35 3.5.2 Round 2: Stand-Alone and Combined Base Alternatives Cost Estimates ____ 3-36 3.5.3 Round 3A: Interlined Alternatives Cost Estimates_______________________ 3-36