HOT Credit Lanes Feasibility Study Prepared for: Alameda County Congestion Management Agency 1333 Broadway, Suite 220 Oakland, CA 94612 Contact: Jean G. Hart Deputy Director Telephone: (510) 836-2560 Prepared by: Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas, Inc. Acumen Building Enterprise Dowling Associates, Inc. ECONorthwest Evans/McDonough Company, Inc August 2005 PRINTED ON RECYCLED PAPER TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................i 1. Introduction....................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background of the FAIR Lanes Concept................................................................................1 1.2 Focus of I-580 and I-680 Study..............................................................................................2 2. Existing Conditions.......................................................................................................................4 2.1 Physical Characteristics .........................................................................................................4 2.2 Operational Characteristics....................................................................................................5 2.3 Travel Patterns .......................................................................................................................13 2.4 Transit ....................................................................................................................................15 3. Alternatives Definition ................................................................................................................. 17 3.1 Alternative Compensation Schemes .......................................................................................17 3.2 Uniform Characteristics for all Alternatives .............................................................................17 3.3 Variable Features ....................................................................................................................19 3.4 Selection of Alternatives ..........................................................................................................20 4. Public Acceptance of HOT Credit Lanes and Value-Priced Lanes as an Equity Solution.....22 4.1 Focus Groups.........................................................................................................................22 4.2 Public Opinion Survey............................................................................................................25 5. HOT Credit Policy Modeling Results...........................................................................................28 5.1 Modeling Approach ................................................................................................................28 5.2 Analysis of Alternatives ..........................................................................................................30 5.3 Users’ Value of Time..............................................................................................................31 5.4 Results for 2-Hour AM Peak Period in 2000 and 2025..........................................................32 5.5 Conclusions............................................................................................................................46 6. Revenue Estimates .......................................................................................................................48 6.1 Revenues for 20-Year Period.................................................................................................48 6.2 Conclusions............................................................................................................................51 7. Cost Estimates...............................................................................................................................52 7.1 Assumptions for Estimates.....................................................................................................52 7.2 Capital Costs ..........................................................................................................................52 7.3 Operations and Maintenance .................................................................................................55 HOT Credit Lanes Feasibility Study August 2005 TOC-1 8. Operational Analysis.....................................................................................................................57 8.1 Demand Forecast Results..................................................................................................... 57 8.2 I-580 Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 58 8.3 I-680 Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 60 8.4 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................61 9. Findings and Conclusions............................................................................................................62 9.1 HOT/C Lanes Feasibility Considerations .............................................................................. 62 9.2 Implementation Challenges................................................................................................... 63 10. References .....................................................................................................................................64 Appendix A: Value Pricing State-of-the-Art Review Appendix B: Travel Demand Modeling Appendix C: Focus Groups Moderator’s Guide Appendix D: Public Opinion Survey Questionnaire HOT Credit Lanes Feasibility Study August 2005 TOC-2 FIGURES 1 Project Location........................................................................................................4 2 Weekday Traffic – I-580 Westbound ........................................................................6 3 Weekday Traffic – I-580 Eastbound .........................................................................6 4 Weekday Traffic – I-680 Southbound.......................................................................7 5 Weekday Traffic – I-680 Northbound .......................................................................7 6 Peak Hour Volumes by Ramp – Westbound I-580...................................................9 7 Peak Hour Volumes by Ramp – Eastbound I-580....................................................9 8 Peak Hour Volumes by Ramp – Southbound I-680..................................................10 9 Peak Hour Volumes by Ramp – Northbound I-680..................................................10 10 Alameda County Residents’ Opinion of SMART Lanes ...........................................26 11 Alameda County Residents’ Opinion of Fairness Proposals ...................................27 HOT Credit Lanes Feasibility Study August 2005 TOC-3 TABLES 1 Average Daily Traffic ................................................................................................8 2 Historical Change in Average Daily Traffic Volumes ...............................................8 3 Year 2002 Congestion Delay and Duration .............................................................11 4 Corridor Travel Times and Average Speeds............................................................12 5 I-680 (Southbound AM) Vehicle Occupancy and Classification .............................13 6 Origins and Destinations by County for Drivers.......................................................14 7 San Joaquin I-580 Destinations, AM Peak Period, Westbound Drivers...................14 8 Rider Origins – Dublin Pleasanton Station ...............................................................16 9 Mean Values of Time per Vehicle-Hour by Vehicle Class........................................31 10 Average Toll and Hourly Revenue Estimates during 2-Hour AM Peak Period in 2000 (in 2004 Dollars) ..............................................................................................33 11 Average Toll and Hourly Revenue Estimates during 2-Hour AM Peak Period in 2025 (in 2004 Dollars) ..........................................................................................34 12 Average Speeds on the General Purpose and HOT Lane during 2-Hour AM Peak Period in 2000..................................................................................................35 13 Average Speeds on the General Purpose and HOT Lane during 2-Hour AM Peak Period in 2025..................................................................................................36 14 Summary of Average Vehicle Volumes on HOT Lane during 2-Hour AM Peak Period in 2000...........................................................................................................37 15 Summary of Average Vehicle Volumes on HOT Lane during 2-Hour AM Peak Period in 2025...........................................................................................................40 16 Summary of VMT and VHT during 2-Hour AM Peak Period in 2000........................43 17 Summary of VMT and VHT during 2-Hour AM Peak Period in 2025........................44 18 Summary of Alternative HOT Credit (HOT/C) Policies on VHT, Revenue, and Capital and Operating Costs (I-680