AFRICA’S EMERGING FOOD SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION Eastern and Southern Africa Edited by: David Tschirley, Steven Haggblade, and Thomas Reardon ISBN 978-0-9903005-2-6 Africa’s Emerging Food System Transformation – Eastern and Southern Africa ISBN 978-0-9903005-2-6 Copyright © 2014 by Global Center for Food Systems Innovation (GCFSI). This book was funded by US Global Development Lab at USAID. All rights reserved. This book or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of the publisher except for the use of brief quotations in a book review. Please cite as: Tschirley, D., Haggblade, S., Reardon, T., eds. 2014. Population Growth, Climate Change and Pressure on the Land – Eastern and Southern Africa. 99 pp. ISBN 978-0-9903005-2-6 The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) through its Modernizing African Food Systems grant to Michigan State University, and of the United States Agency for International Development through its funding for the Global Center for Food System Innovation and the Food Security III Cooperative Agreement. Global Center for Food Systems Innovation Michigan State University 310 Manly Miles Building 1405 S. Harrison Road East Lansing, Michigan 48823-5243 The United States of America www.gcfsi.isp.msu.edu [email protected] Table of Contents CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION AND CONCEPTUAL APPROACH 1 1.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2. Conceptual Approach: The Five Transformations ...................................................................... 3 CHAPTER 2: URBANIZATION IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 8 2.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 8 2.2. The African Urbanization Conundrum ........................................................................................... 8 2.3. The Urbanization Counter-Narrative............................................................................................. 10 2.4. Patterns of Urbanization ................................................................................................................... 15 2.5. Urbanization Levels and Rates ........................................................................................................ 16 2.6. The Spatial Pattern of Urbanization ............................................................................................. 18 CHAPTER 3: THE DIET TRANSFORMATION: PROJECTING CHANGES IN FOOD DEMAND IN EAST AND SOUTHERN AFRICA THROUGH 2040 26 3.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 26 3.2. Current Food Consumption Patterns in ESA ............................................................................. 26 3.3. The “Rest of Africa” Maize-Mixed Food Staple Zone .............................................................. 29 3.4. The Projection Model ......................................................................................................................... 35 3.4.1. Structure and Data 35 3.4.2. Scenarios 40 3.4.3. Results and Discussion 41 3.5 Anticipating Qualitative Changes in Demand ........................................................................ 55 CHAPTER 4: BENDING THE CURVE IN AFRICA’S NUTRITION TRANSITION 58 4.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 58 4.2. Characteristics of the Nutrition Transition ............................................................................... 61 4.3. Consequences........................................................................................................................................ 63 4.4. Causes ...................................................................................................................................................... 64 4.4.1. Linked Economic and Spatial Transitions 64 4.4.2. Cultural Norms 65 4.4.3. Processed Foods 65 4.5. Bending the Curve in Africa’s Nutrition Transition ................................................................ 66 4.5.1. Prevention 66 4.5.2. Learning from Outliers 67 4.5.3. Policy Options 67 4.5.4. Policy Tools for Improving Dietary Quality 67 4.5.5. Policy Tools for Increasing Physical Activity 67 4.5.6. Ongoing and Emerging Efforts 68 CHAPTER 5: THE MIDSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM TRANSFORMATION: CURRENT STATUS AND PATTERNS OF CHANGE 68 5.1. Introduction and Overview .............................................................................................................. 69 5.2. The structure of domestic food marketing in the region: current and anticipated to 2040 ................................................................................................................................................................ 80 5.3. The modern sector: Status and prospects for supermarkets in ESA’s food system .... 84 5.3.1. The evolution of thinking regarding the rise of modern retail in developing countries 84 5.3.2. Patterns of Supermarket Diffusion in SSA: An Illustration from Zambia 88 5.3.3. Anticipating future growth of modern retail in Africa 90 5.3.4. Future impacts of supermarkets on African food systems 92 CHAPTER 6. LITERATURE REVIEW ON FORMAL PRIVATE INVESTMENTS IN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE 94 6.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 94 6.2. Surveys of Agribusiness Companies in Africa ........................................................................... 94 6.3. Updated List of Largest African-based Companies ................................................................... 96 6.3.1. Results and Use of the Table 97 6.3.2. Recent Patterns of Private Investments 99 6.4. Public-Private Partnerships and Multi-Stakeholder Platforms as vehicles to promote private investment ..................................................................................................................................... 106 6.5. Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 108 CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 108 7.1. Summary of Findings ....................................................................................................................... 109 7.2. Key Research Questions.................................................................................................................. 111 7.2.1. Urbanization 111 7.2.2. The Diet Transformation and Changes in the Downstream and Midstream 112 7.2.3. The Nutrition Transition 113 7.2.4. Imports 114 LIST OF REFERENCES 115 Chapter 2 ....................................................................................................................................................... 115 Chapter 3 ....................................................................................................................................................... 116 Chapter 4 ....................................................................................................................................................... 117 Chapter 5 ....................................................................................................................................................... 119 Chapter 6 ....................................................................................................................................................... 122 1 Chapter 1: Introduction and Conceptual Approach David Tschirley and Thomas Reardon 1.1. Introduction Since the end of World War II, every continent on earth has rapidly urbanized, with the worldwide urban population share rising from 29% in 1950 to 52% in 2010. This global pattern has been associated with and largely driven by simultaneous growth in agricultural productivity, which “pushed” people off the farm by allowing output prices to fall, and in manufacturing and services, which “pulled” people into the more remunerative activities found in cities and towns. Together, these processes drove dramatic increases in worldwide per capita income, which is always associated with higher urban shares in total population. Over this period, official data indicate that no continent urbanized more rapidly than sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The continent’s urban population share rose by a factor of 3.2, from 11% in 1950 to 36% in 2010. Asia’s urban population share during this period increased only 2.5 times (from 18% to 44%), and Latin America’s 1.9 times, from 41% to 79%. Yet through the late 1990s, this rapid urbanization in SSA took place in the midst of very poor performances in its agriculture and broader economy. From 1972 to 1998, World Bank Development Indicators data indicate that per capita incomes in SSA grew slower than any other area of the world: barely over half the percentage growth of South Asia, less than one-quarter that of developing East Asia, and only 28% of the world average. Predictably, indicators of broader economic change also lagged. Percentage growth in the market capitalization of listed companies in SSA from 1988 (the first year