Managing Uncertainty: Risk Narratives and Learning in Provincial Hydraulic Fracturing regulation in Canada 2006 – 2016 by Heather Lynn Millar A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science University of Toronto © Copyright by Heather Lynn Millar 2019 Managing Uncertainty: Risk Narratives and Learning in Provincial Hydraulic Fracturing Regulation in Canada 2006 – 2016 Heather Lynn Millar Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science University of Toronto 2019 Abstract This dissertation explains variation in provincial regulation of hydraulic fracturing, an emerging method of oil and gas extraction in Canada. The dissertation examines the interplay of interests and ideas in fostering mechanisms of learning among policy elites, resulting in different regulatory outcomes. The study argues that material and electoral interests in each province shape the emergence of “risk narratives”: ideas about uncertainty that delineate the nature of the policy problem and identify appropriate solutions. Risk narratives are categorized into four distinct types – linear, complex, uncertain, and catastrophic. The study distinguishes two modes of learning: learning about policy efficacy and learning about political feasibility. Different risk narratives foster processes of policy learning in some cases and political learning in others, leading to different regulatory approaches. The dissertation probes the plausibility of the framework by applying it to three provincial cases of regulatory change, examining the cases of British Columbia, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia from 2006-2016. The study uses both a cross-case and within-case comparative approach, engaging in process tracing by drawing on policy document analysis, media analysis, and key informant interviews. The dissertation finds that when risk narratives are filtered through varying institutional conditions, they trigger alternate processes of learning among policy elites. Narratives of linear risk locked in processes of policy learning in British Columbia, leading to ii single issue regulation. Narratives of complex risk fostered more extensive processes of policy learning in New Brunswick, leading to more comprehensive regulation. However, the emergence of an uncertain risk narrative in New Brunswick spurred a subsequent process of political learning among elites, resulting in an implementation of a moratorium. In Nova Scotia uncertain risk narratives also prompted political learning, leading initially to a moratorium. But the emergence of catastrophic risk narratives in Nova Scotia facilitated subsequent processes of political learning that resulted in a legislated ban. The dissertation demonstrates that contingent combinations of risk narratives, institutional structures, and learning present different pathways to regulatory change. The study findings have important implications for understanding how ideas about uncertainty influence policy elite decision making and the relationship between processes of learning and policy change. iii Acknowledgments My journey from student to scholar has been rife with its own uncertainties, complexities, and unknown unknowns; I am extremely fortunate to have been graced with a group of trusty companions along the way. My supervisor, Linda A. White, has been an extremely patient, enthusiastic, and dedicated champion. Her intellectual rigour, curiosity, and collaborative spirit have been ongoing sources of inspiration and growth. Committee member Grace Skogstad’s gracious support and careful criticism have been indispensable in teaching me how to clarify my thoughts and refine my arguments. As a newcomer to energy policy and environmental studies, I am grateful to Andrea Olive for agreeing to serve on my committee. Her expansive knowledge of the field and deft attention to research design were much appreciated; her wry humour has been an unexpected bonus. Kate Neville’s extremely attentive and insightful guidance as an internal examiner has made my research infinitely richer. I am very lucky that Kathryn Harrison was willing and able to act as an external examiner for the study. Her adroit critique provided a fresh perspective that generated a rich discussion and opened up new pathways of intellectual exploration that I am energized to pursue. My intellectual development has been fostered by the careful attention of a number of faculty members at the University of Toronto and elsewhere. Carolyn Tuohy, Christian Breunig, Phil Triadafilopoulos, Jonathan Craft, and Gabe Eidelman provided early guidance into the realm of policy studies. I have benefited immensely from the community of scholars at the Environmental Governance Lab at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. Steven Bernstein, Matthew Hoffmann, Teresa Kramarz, Sara Hughes, Douglas Macdonald and Stefan Renckens all provided perceptive comments at different stages of the project. Working on hydraulic fracturing regulation occasionally felt like a fool’s errand; I am extremely grateful for the kind support of energy policy scholars Monica Gattinger, Barry Rabe, Christopher Gore, Erick Lachapelle, and Éric Montpetit and their generous feedback on various conference papers and chapter drafts. I extend my warmest thanks to all the interview participants for their contributions to my study. I would also like to acknowledge the generous funding received from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council, the Ontario Graduate Scholarship, the Department of Political Science and the School of Graduate Studies that made my studies, particularly my field research, iv possible. The Department of Political Science is fortunate to have a stellar group of staff. Special thanks to Carolynn Branton, Louis Tentsos and Sari Sherman for their assistance in navigating the weird and wonderful bureaucracy of the University of Toronto. Many thanks are due to Chelsea Pennell for her efficient research assistance coding media articles in the last year of the project. One of the enduring joys of my graduate studies has been the discovery of intellectual kindred spirits and delightful friends: the members of the “Brain Trust” have been both. Marion Laurence, Hamish van der Ven, Beth Jean Evans, and Carmen Ho have provided endless feedback and support, generously listening to long rambles, reading drafts, and formatting power point presentations. Special thanks to Matthew Lesch, policy co-conspirator, co-author, co- instructor, and friend. I look forward to our continued collaborations, hopefully with fewer journal rejections in the future. I am deeply appreciative of the camaraderie of an excellent community of graduate students at the University of Toronto. Carey Doberstein and Adrienne Davidson introduced me to the benefits of co-authorship and puzzling together, the least of which was the opportunity to draw on their towering intellects. Jerry Sabin, Andrew McDougall, Janique Dubois, Jack Lucas, Sophie Borwein and Paul Thomas have been invaluable in helping me navigate the intricacies of Canadian political science, including the beer tents at CPSA. Dragana Bodruzic, Kate Korycki, and Anne Staver provided much needed helpful advice and thoughtful listening in the early years of the program. I would have not made it through field exams without the collaboration of Jessica Soedirgo, Milena Pandy, Andrew Ahern, Dave Zarnett, Aarie Glas, Julia Bognar, Evan Rosevear, and Matthew Hamilton. Discussions with David Houle, Nathan Lemphers, Amy Janzwood and Eve Bourgeois have provided me with helpful insights into the environmental studies literature. Special thanks to Jodi Quinn for asking “what about fracking in BC and Quebec?” and handing me my empirical puzzle. Will Greaves, Sarah Rich Zendel, Lama Mourad, Jacqueline Peterson, Lior Scheffer and Erica Petkov have consistently demonstrated to me that life in other sub-fields is fascinating and worthy of my attention. Steve Trochimchuk and Abe Singer did the same for political theory, although with substantially more beer. v My dear friends in Toronto and across the country have been crucial to ensuring my perseverance and maintaining my mental health. Many thanks to Kyla Epstein, Caitlyn Vernon, Erin Case, Katy Konyk, Melanie Godecki, Lu Rollins, Eufemia Fantetti, Sue Aucoin, Jeanette Inglis, Tanya Paz, Cindy Weeds, Michele Chai, Melissa Whitfield Aslund, Maeve Moriarty, Greta Hagen, Allison Urowitz, Allison Prieur, Laura Spencer, Emily Callaghan, Lisa Joya and Tamarah Luk, for their support and encouragement. My siblings Diane Millar, Shannon Whibbs, David Millar, Amy Gardner, and Tim Dixon have been incredibly supportive, from encouraging me to submit my original application to babysitting so I could get work done. Many thanks are due to my in-laws, Donna and Gary Whibbs for their ongoing support and especially for never asking me when I was going to finish. The dream of graduate studies would have never become a reality without the unfailing support of my parents, Robin and John Millar. Their deep commitment to lifelong learning was evident throughout my childhood and their complete support of my choice to leave a successful career in order to pursue graduate studies was never in doubt. My mother Robin demonstrated to me the possibility of returning to school as a mature student by obtaining a doctorate in her fifties. I aspire to her thoughtful leadership and delight in intellectual exploration. My father John was my biggest coach and cheerleader. Although he passed