HEAT WAVES FORECASTS IN THE VENETO REGION (ITALY) Stefano Veronese, Marco Monai, Franco Zardini, and Andrea Rossa Regional Agency for Environmental Prevention and Protection of the Veneto Meteorological Centre of Teolo Why heat wave forecasts ? DEATHS related tototo a Heat wave index in JuneJune----AugustAugust 2007 Veneto Municipalities > 25,000 inhabits (((moving(moving averageaverage, , 7 daysdays)))) Summer 2003! Heat wave index in JuneJune----JulyJuly in Veneto Region Humidex < 30 : no discomfort; Humidex 30-40 : medium-high discomfort; Humidex > 40 : warning health DEATHS in summer in Veneto Region provincial capitals Why the Po Valley? THE PO VALLEY A BIG BASIN OF HUMIDITY and COMPLEX OROGRAPHY VENETO The Veneto Climate zones PREALPS VALLEY CLIMATE VENICE COASTAL CLIMATE FOOTHILL CLIMATE CONTINENTAL CLIMATE The tools for heat wave forecasting IS = -17,089 * ln (relative humidity) + 94,979 - Tair IS>0 No discomfort -1<IS<0 Low discomfort -3<IS<-1 Medium discomfort IS<-3 High discomfort Humidex = Tair + 0.5 * (water vapor pressure – 10) The daily forecast bulletin (15 June – 31 August) Forecast for today Heat discomfort Ozone Forecast for tomorrow Heat discomfort Ozone Tendency for day 2 and 3 ANAN EXAMPLEEXAMPLE OFOF FORECASTFORECAST VERIFICATIONVERIFICATION AREA OVERESTIMATION CORRECT ESTIMATION AREA AREA UNDERESTIMATION METEROLOGICAL CENTER OF TEOLO HEAT WAVES AND OZONE CONCENTRATION DAILY FORECASTS (VIA E -MAIL AND/OR FAX) FOR: • VENETIAN REGIONAL AUTHORITIES; • VENETIAN MUNICIPALITY AUTHORITIES; • VENETIAN CIVIL PROTECTION EMERGENCY ROOM; • VENETIAN SANITARY EMERGENCY ROOMS; • VENETIAN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CENTER. CHECK IN PARTICULAR: • OLDER; • SICK; • CHILDREN. Was it useful ? HOT SUMMER 2003 SINCE 2004 EXPERIMENTAL DAILY SUMMER HEAT WAVES FORECASTS VERY POSITIVE FEEDBACK YEAR BY YEAR IN THE NEXT YEARS HIGH PROBABILITY OF PERMANENT SUMMER HEAT WAVES FORECASTS Will is be useful in the future (CC)? 2003 2003.