Socially Constructing Warships — Emergence, growth & senescence of a knowledge-intensive complex adaptive system William P. Hall President Kororoit Institute Proponents and Supporters Assoc., Inc. - http://kororoit.org Documentation & Knowledge Management Systems Analyst (Ret.) Tenix Defence [email protected] http://www.orgs-evolution-knowledge.net Access my research papers from Google Citations Melbourne Emergence, 11 June 2015 Tenix Defence’s $7 BN ANZAC Ship Project was the most successful Defence Project in Australian History Late 1989-2007 built & delivered 10 modern frigates – 8 to the Royal Australian Navy – 2 to the Royal New Zealand Navy – Different customers, different languages, different systems – Plethora of engineering changes affecting everything – Stringently fixed price contract & delivery schedule – Required to achieve 80% Australia/New Zealand content – Fixed acceptance dates, major penalty/warranty clauses How is ANZAC’s success measured? – Every ship on time – No cost overruns – Healthy company profit ! A success by any standard! – Happy customers Tenix auctioned its Defence assets in 2007 because it could not complete a $500 M project for New Zealand 2 – Failing to learn from Australia’s most successful defence project ANZAC Frigates designed for modular construction Modules can be built anywhere appropriate standards and transport arrangements exist Modules are much easier & faster to fit out with kit and components when being fabricated or open 3 Complex processing fabrication & assembly forming completely operational ship from steel plate on 36 acre (14.5 ha) site INTEGRATION STEPS 1. Steel plate stockyard 2. Blast & prime plate 3. NC plate cutting 4. Fabricate panels b 5. Assemble units & blocks 6. Blast/paint units & blocks d 7. Assemble modules & pre- outfit them 8. Erect modules on slipway b 8a. Receive off-site modules 9. Outfit & set to work Engineering 10.Underwater & set to work — a a. Warehouse (components & Admin material receive & store) e b. Bar fabrication c c. Machine shop Staff d. Pipe shop 4 parking e. Kitting Receiving modules, erecting hull Modules built in NZ for NZ ships 5 Erecting modules & launching ship Click main picture for video Note transporter under module to left Note open structure to facilitate installation of 2 6 cruise diesels, LM 2500 gas turbine and main gear box Launching! 7 Emergence & senescence of an ANZAC ship Lifecycle of a major engineering project RFT AND BIDS CONCEPT STUDIES SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS PRELIM DESIGN STUDIES HIGH LEVEL SPECIFICATIONS FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS SYSTEMS & AND ENG DESIGN REQUIREMENTS ALLOCATION LOWER LEVEL SPECS SYNTHESIS, ANALYSIS, TRADE-OFF STUDIES AND DESIGN OPTIMISATION The product emerges In Service from a complex web SYSTEM TEST AND EVALUATION Support of millions of decisions DESIGN VALIDATION (ISS) CONSTRUCTION / PRODUCTION DEPLOYMENT AND SUPPORT RETIREMENT & PHASEOUT Mfg Resource Planing (MRP) MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT ​ Points of decision: Kauffman's (2000) "adjacent possible“ Ellis & Rothman's (2010) “crystallizing block universe” Time progresses from left to right Grey area is the unchangeable block past (if it exists) Dashed lines represent undetermined possible futures a particle can reach from present instant (“adjacent possibles”) Ellis & Rothmann suppose that present instant is ‘fuzzy’ with quantum uncertainty until local area collapses or crystallizes into a determined path Hall, W.P. 2011. Physical basis for the emergence of autopoiesis, cognition and 10 knowledge How does a ship come to be? Consider the temporal trajectory of an iron atom through the life of an ANZAC Ship Iron atom produced by nuclear fusion ‖ Weld panels into “unit” in core of star [ Blast & paint unit ] Ejected by supernova as cosmic dust ‖ Weld units into “module” Captured in formation of planet [ ‖ fit & install other components Earth and equipment into module] Precipitated as concentrated ore by ‖ Erect and weld module with geological processes other modules into ship structure Controlled application of energy as [ Complete ship fit out, set to work () to mine and refine ore work] Smelt and forge iron into steel [ Deliver doco packages & train plate by via complex machinery crew] Transport plate from foundry to [ Sea trials & commission ship into steel yard in Williamstown service ] Blast and prime plate following [ In operational service] production design & schedule () Maintain, change & refit cut plate into flat “parts” Entropic senescence, decommission Shape, fit & weld parts into 3D Scrapping & recycling “panel” in parallel (‖) with many 11 other parts Consider the assembly of a bid to build ships (hydrographic vessels?) OVERSIMPLIFIED! 1. Read RFT / individual line items 2. Collect source data/docs 3. Decide response for each line item 4. Assemble required DIDs 5. Author paragraphs responding to each requirement 6. Review/rewrite many times 7. Assemble into documents 8. Review/rewrite many times 9. Assemble documents into system- level Annexes 10.Preliminary design & costing 11. Print files and assemble review volumes 12.Management review & edit 13.Final cross check against RFT and proofing 12 14.Assemble & deliver formal bid Theoretical Framework Mostly from Hall, W.P. 2011. Physical basis for the emergence of autopoiesis, cognition and knowledge. Kororoit Institute Working Papers No. 2: 1-63 Evolutionary epistemology Karl Popper’s “general theory of evolution” – Tentative solutions (trials) – Elimination of errors – What’s left worked at least once – Evolving time-line includes solutions to what worked in past Accounts for evolution of anticipatory systems OBSERVE ORIENT DECIDE ACT Inseparability of (Results of Test) (Hypothesis) (Test) knowledge & life OBSERVATION GUIDANCE AND CONTROL DNA PARADIGM CULTURE PARADIGM EXTERNAL GENETIC INFORMATION PARADIGMS John Boyd’s OODA HERITAGE PROCESSES – Includes choice, decision, and INPUT O ANALYSIS O SYNTHESIS D A wilful action CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES MEMORY OF HISTORY UNFOLDING UNFOLDING INTERACTION ENVIRONMENTAL WITH EXTERNAL RESULTS OF ENVIRONMENT 14 ACTIONS Non-equilibrium thermodyanmics drives emergence of knowledge-based living systems Eddies in the flux become stabilized & self-sustaining via selected & inherited structural configuration 15 Emergent autopoietic vortexes forming world 2 and world 3 in a flux of exergy to entropy . .. .. Symbolic . knowledge . Embodied . Autonomy . knowledge . Autocatalytic . metabolism Exergy Material source cycles Entropy sink Flux along the focal level Slide 16 Varela et al. (1974) define life as autopoiesis Reliable knowledge makes systems living Six criteria are necessary and sufficient for autopoiesis – Bounded System components self-identifiably demarcated from environment – Complex Separate and functionally different subsystems exist within boundary – Mechanistic System dynamics driven by self-sustainably regulated flows of energy from high to low potential driving dissipative “metabolic” processes – Self-defining System structure and demarcation intrinsically produced Control information/survival knowledge embodied in instantaneous structure – Self-producing (= “auto” + “poiesis”) System intrinsically produces own components – Autonomous self-produced components are necessary and sufficient to produce the system. Autopoiesis is a good definition for life 17 What makes a system living? Autopoiesis (Maturana & Varela 1980; see also Wikipedia) – Reflexively self-regulating, self-sustaining, self-(re)producing dynamic entity – Continuation of autopoiesis depends on the dynamic structure of the state in the previous instant producing an autopoietic structure in the next instant through iterated cycles () – Selective survival builds knowledge into the system one problem solution at a time (Popper 1972, 1994) By surviving a perturbation, the living entity has solved a problem of life Structural knowledge demonstrated by self-producing cellular automata HIGHER LEVEL SYSTEM / ENVIRONMENT emerging in toy universes Constraints and boundaries, regulations determine what is physically allowable The entity's history and present circumstances Energy (exergy) Entropy/Waste Materials Gosper’s Glider Gun Processes Products cycles in 14 steps Component recruitment Departures Gliders – cycle in 4 steps Actions Rule: Observations The entity's imperatives and goals Live cell with 2 or 3 live neighbours lives Dead cell with 3 live neighbours lives "universal" laws governing component interactions determine physical capabilities 18 All other live cells die SUBSYSTEMS / COMPONENTS Autopoiesis may develop at several levels of hierarchical organization 19 Economic organizations may be autopoietic 20 Information transformations in the living entity through time World 2 Living system Cell Multicellular organism Classification Social organisation State World 1 Memory of history Semantic Observations processing to (data) form knowledge Meaning Perturbations Anticipate, predict, propose Intelligence Related Hall, W.P., Else, S., Martin, C., Philp, W. 2011. Time-based information frameworks for valuing knowledge: maintaining strategic Slide 21 knowledge. Kororoit Institute Working Papers No. 1: 1-28. (OASIS Seminar Presentation, Department of Information An "attractor basin" Systems, University of Melbourne, 27 July 2007) Another view World 1 World 2 Medium/ Autopoietic system Environment Observation Memory World State 1 Classification Perturbation Transduction Synthesis Time Evaluation Decide! Processing Paradigm