A theory of revolution RAYMOND TANTER Department of Political Science, University of Michigan and MANUS MIDLARSKY Department of Political Science, University of Colorado Overview Finally, hypotheses are offered to account for some of the findings of this study. The focus of this study is an empirical examination of some causes of revolution.l A While prior studies have delineated dimen- Categorization of Revolutions sions of conflict behavior within nations Prior to a discussion of theoretical signifi- (Rummel, 1963, 1966, 1967; Tanter, 1965, cance, it may be useful to inquire into the 1966) in order to discover the variables meaning of revolution itself. This exercise most representative of internal conflict, a in definition appears necessary primarily be- purpose of the present inquiry is to discover cause prior usage of the term has been their theoretical significance. A typology of somewhat ambiguous. To the Hegelian, the revolution is presented and two possible revolutionary idea is equated with irresist- causes of revolution-changes in economic ible change-a manifestation of the world development and level of education-are spirit in an unceasing quest for its own ful- examined regarding the extent of their asso- fillment. Similarly, the Marxist, although ciation with certain characteristics of revo- opposed to Hegelian idealism, sees revolu- lution. Regional differences are found which tion as a product of irresistible historical imply a fundamental distinction between at forces, which culminate in a struggle be- least two of the categories in the typology. tween the bourgeoisie and the proletariat. Hannah Arendt (1965, pp. 34-40), on the 1 This study is a part of a series on revolu- other hand, interprets the revolutionary ex- tions and their implications for international re- perience as a kind of restoration, whereby lations and some especially consequences for the insurgents attempt to restore liberties international business communities. Acknowl- and privileges which were lost as the result edgments are due to Harold Guetzkow of the International Relations Program at Northwestern of the government’s temporary lapse into University for his suggestions during formative despotism. Indeed, aspects of the American stages of this inquiry. Thanks are due to the Revolution as well as some recent anti- Ford Foundation for a to the fellowship given colonial revolutions may be amenable to author and to the National Science Foun- junior Arendt’s The dation for its assistance to the senior author. interpretation. insurgents view the colonial elite as Helpful comments were made by Richard A. might strangers Brody, James C. Davies, and Robert C. North. who have usurped the freedoms which, CONFLICT RESOLUTION VOLUME XI NUMBER 3 265 TABLE 1 CHARACTERISTICS OF FOUR TYPES OF REVOLUTION mythically or otherwise, once belonged to pp. 22-24) constructs a similar classifica- the people now in revolt. tion, but instead of the palace revolution he Tocqueville (1955, p. 8), on the other discusses &dquo;caudillismo&dquo; (predatory milita- hand, has employed a more empirical ap- rism), which is a common form of the coup proach to the problem of revolution, and has d6tat in Latin America. These three forms defined it as an overthrow of the legally con- of revolution appear to reflect an increasing stituted elite, which initiated a period of in- degree of change initiated by the successful tense social, political, and economic change. insurgents, and may be placed on a rank- Crane Brinton (1952, pp. 3-4) has continued order of increasing political or social change. this empirical thrust by differentiating be- James Rosenau, in fact, constructs such a tween the coup d6tat, as a simple replace- classification of revolution. ment of one elite by another, and major Personnel wars are defined by Rosenau as revolutions such as the French or Russian, those which are fought over the occupancy which were accompanied by social, political, of existing roles in the structure of political and economic changes. Similarly, with re- authority (Rosenau, 1964, pp. 63-64). An spect to Latin America, George Blanksten example of this type is the palace revolution (1962, p. 72) suggests that we should dis- or Latin American caudillismo. A second tinguish between the coup d6tat and revo- category is what Rosenau calls the authority lutions such as the Mexican experience, wars, or those in which the insurgents com- which eventually had profound conse- pete not only for the occupancy of roles in quences for the structure of that society. the political structure, but for their arrange- The distinction between two forms of ment as well. Struggles to replace dictator- revolution may provide a basis for the de- ships with democracies would be classified velopment of further classifications. For as authority wars. The final classification is example, Harold Lasswell and Abraham that of the structural wars, in which the goal Kaplan (1950, p. 252) present a further re- of the insurgents is the introduction of social finement in the classification of revolution and economic changes in the society. Wars by the introduction of a three-category ty- involving Communist factions would fall pology in which they differentiate between under this heading. In addition, Rosenau palace revolutions, political revolutions, and notes that structural wars contain elements social revolutions. Edwin Lieuwen (1960, of both personnel and authority wars. 266 Changes in the occupancy of government major difference between the two forms is roles, as well as the arrangement of these in the degree of change initiated in the roles, would automatically take place if the structure of the political authority. The insurgents were successful in a structural &dquo;Young Turks&dquo; implemented a complete re- war. Similarly, the authority war is person- vision of the political authority which led to nel-oriented, because the arrangement of a truncation of the Ottoman Empire and the political roles would seldom, if ever, be establishment of a republic. The revolt altered without a change in the occupancy against Peron, on the other hand, was an at- of these roles. In Rosenau’s ranking of the tempt at reform, in that Peron’s mismanage- three types of internal war, personnel wars ment of the economy and the dissatisfaction would occupy the lowest rank with regard of major political forces, such as the Roman to the degree of societal change; the au- Catholic Church, led to a revolt against what thority wars would occupy an intermediate had become an oppressive political execu- rank, and the structural wars would receive tive. the highest rank. The existence of several types of revolu- Samuel Huntington (1962, pp. 23-24) tion suggests that we might be able to isolate has suggested a classification of revolution different characteristics of revolution. Karl in which four categories are enumerated: Deutsch (1964, pp. 102-104) proposes that the internal war, the revolutionary coup, the the degree of mass participation in a revo- reform coup, and the palace revolution. lution, as well as its duration, may be essen- Huntington’s use of the concept &dquo;internal tial to an adequate description of the revolu- war&dquo; differs from the meaning attributed to tionary experience. A third characteristic that concept in earlier systematic studies. may be the number killed as a result of the For that reason the term mass revolution2 revolution. Given a high degree of commit- will be substituted for internal war as used ment by the insurgents and the incumbents, by Huntington. The terms mass revolution the number of persons killed both during and palace revolution correspond respec- and after the revolution may be a measure tively to Rosenau’s structural and personnel of intensity. This measure will be discussed wars, while the revolutionary and reform more fully at a later point. Finally, the in- coups both may be placed under the head- tentions of the insurgents may be critical to ing of the authority wars. Kemal Ataturk’s the form of the revolution as well as to its revolution in Turkey, for example, illustrates eventual outcome. If the successful insur- what Huntington might call a revolutionary gents are ideologically committed to certain coup, whereas the 1955 coup in Argentina goals, then they may initiate changes in the might be classified as a reform coup. The societal structure to effect the realization of these goals. If, on the other hand, the in- 2 One may also distinguish between various surgents have no particular ideological orien- types of mass revolution. Lawrence Stone tation, then they might intend to replace the (1966, pp. 162-63), for example, presents a incumbents in the structure of political au- typology which differentiates among the Jac- to in the querie, the Anarchistic Rebellion, the Jacobin thority without recourse changes Communist Revolution and the Militaristic Mass societal structure. Insurrection. However, a purpose of this study Table 1 contains a rank-order of the cate- is to compare the categories of revolution larger gories of revolution based on their position (e.g., mass revolution vs. palace revolution) with to mass duration, rather than to engage in a detailed examination respect participation, of subcategories. domestic violence, and the intentions of the CONFLICT RESOLUTION VOLUME XI NUMBER 3 267 TABLE 2 FOUR TYPES OF REVOLUTIONa a Unsuccessful revolutions are indicated below the the dotted line. b The date in parentheses refers to the year in which the insurgents were either defeated or seized the roles in the structure of political authority. c The Algerian revolution of 1962 refers to the anti-colonial revolt of the Algerian independence movement, whereas the French revolution of 1958 applies to the fall of the French Fourth Republic. insurgents. We may now suggest a defini- within the political structure. This defini- tion of revolution which would be designed tion, then, sets a lower bound or minimum to include the categories in Table 1, as well criterion for the existence of revolution.