THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF TERRITORIES' SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF RAS ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CHANGES: facts, trends, forecast 3 (11) 2010 The journal is published according to the decision of RAS economic institutions’ administration in the North-West federal district: Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of the North Komi scientific centre of the Ural RAS department (Komi Republic) Institute of Economics of Karelian scientific centre of RAS (Karelia Republic) G.P. Luzin Institute of Economic Problems of Kola scientific centre of RAS (the Murmansk region) Institute of Territories’ Socio-Economic Development of RAS (the Vologda region) and according to the decision of St. Petersburg State University of Engineering and Economics administration According to the decision of Presidium of the Higher Attestation Commission of the Russian MES (№6/6, dated 19.02.2010) the journal is included in the list of leading scientific editions, recommended for publication of the main results of dissertations for the degree of Doctor and Candidate of Sciences. Editorial council: RAS academician V.L. Makarov (Moscow, Russia) RAS academician V.V. Ivanter (Moscow, Russia) Belarus NAS academician P.A. Vityaz (Minsk, Belarus) Belarus NAS academician P.G. Nikitenko (Minsk, Belarus) RAS corresponding member V.N. Lazhentsev (Syktyvkar, Russia) Doctor of Economics, professor S.D. Valentey (Moscow, Russia) Doctor of Economics, professor O.V. Goncharuk (St. Petersburg, Russia) Doctor of Economics, professor M.A. Gusakov (St. Petersburg, Russia) Doctor of Sociology, professor G.M. Evelkin (Minsk, Belarus) Doctor of Economics, professor V.A. Ilyin (Vologda, Russia) Professor M. Kivinen (Helsinki, Finland) Doctor of Sociology, professor I.V. Kotlyarov (Minsk, Belarus) Doctor of Economics, professor F.D. Larichkin (Apatity, Russia) Doctor of Technics, professor A.I. Shishkin (Petrozavodsk, Russia) Doctor, professor Ch. Shuhua (Beijing, China) Chief editor – V.A. Ilyin Editorial board: Doctor of Economics, professor L.A. Anosova Ph.D. in History K.A. Gulin (deputy chief editor) Doctor of Economics, professor M.A. Gusakov RAAS corresponding member A.P. Dorogovtsev, Ph.D. in Economics K.A. Zadumkin Ph.D. in Philology M.M. Karaganova (deputy chief editor, responsible secretary) Ph.D. in Economics G.V. Leonidova Ph.D. in Economics M.F. Sychev (deputy chief editor) Ph.D. in Economics T.V. Uskova, Ph.D. in Economics A.A. Shabunova Opinions presented in the articles can differ from the editorial board’s point of view Authors of the articles are responsible for the material selected and stated. ISSN 1998-0698 © ITSED RAS, 2010 Internet address: http://esc.vscc.ac.ru FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR Dear readers, In the third issue of the journal in 2009 the editor-in-chief’s article ad- dressed some issues related to the first anniversary of the economic crisis. 1 Influence of a “very liberal” financial system conducted in the country on a depth of the Russian economy recession was the largest of all the indus- trialized countries and the BRIC countries2. RF President D.A. Medvedev, in his article “Russia, forward!” dated September 10, 2009 gave a more realistic assessment: Vladimir A. ILYIN “<...> the global economic crisis has shown: our state of affairs is not in Doctor of Economics the best. <...> Hence we have the decline in production during the current Professor Honored Scientist of the RF crisis more than other economies and the outrageous stock market fluctua- Director of ITSED RAS tions. All this proves that we did not do what was necessary in previous years. 3 And not everything was done properly” . The directions of modernization of Russian society, the transfer of the country's economy on the innovation track put forward in this article, were supported by all segments of the population. Unfortunately, the President D.A. Medvedev did not say anything about the mechanism of making and implementing decisions that provide practical steps towards gradual mod- ernization. A year has passed, but a systematic, comprehensive approach to solv- ing the most urgent issues of our state set in the "manifesto" has not been submitted to the public. This year is associated with a routine of operational decisions of acute local problems: March - the explosions in Moscow; May – the tragedy at the Raspadskaya mine; August – September – thousands of homeless fire victims in Russia and the irresistible rise of food prices; Sep- tember – PR campaign “Khimki forest”. Finally we never get around to the system implementation of the goals stated in the article “Russia, forward!” Participants of the International Discussion Club “Valday-2010” assessed the changes over the past year in the following way: 1 From V.V. Putin's speech at the meeting with participants of the VI session of the International Discussion Club “Valdai” held on 09/11/2009: “If we talk about the financial system, it is much more adapted to market realities than many of the financial systems of other countries. Say, if we compare it with the financial system of China, then, as you know, the Russian financial system operates under the Basel principles and is very liberal. We have virtually removed all restrictions on capital movements. We took the basic laws regarding private ownership of land, which has never taken place in Russia”. 2 BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China. 3 Article “Russia, forward!” dated 10/09/2009 [Electronic resource]. – Access mode: http://www.kremlin.ru/transcripts/5413 (the official website of the President of the RF). Economical and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 3 (11) 2010 3 “<...> the modernization continues to be rather a slogan than a real political course. There is virtually no real modernization, restructuring and diversification. Oil and gas remain to be the main sources of income. Corruption is not restrained by anything, and innovation is inhibited. And we conclude that this trend can last for 10 – 15 years” 4. It seems that the situation in the country is developing in this very way. State elite has already drawn into another political cycle – the election of the State Duma deputies and the Russian President. It is therefore likely that in the next 2–3 years the slow process of modernization imi- tation will go on. Table 1. R&D spending as % of GDP 5 One of the main indicators showing the direction Country 2000 2007 2008 2009. of the state’s course to economy modernization is Finland 3.35 3.48 3.73 3.91 the share of expenditure on research and develop- USA 2.77 2.62 2.76 2.65* Germany 2.47 2.58 2.63 N/d ment as a percentage of GDP (tab. 1). France 2.05 2.11 2.02 N/d Level and dynamics of expenditures on R&D in Russia 1.05 1.12 1.04 0.98 the Russian Federation are disappointing against the * Data for the USA are designed for the I half of 2009. background of the leading countries; it shows a clear Table 2. Evaluation of activities imitation of the struggle for the Russian economy modernization. One of the most important indicators of the state Approval, number of respondents % of the total of respondents the total number of Russian society is the dynamics of population es- Disapproval % of Changes rate Changes rate timates of the power vertical, the dynamics of social of power Vertical 2008 2010 2008 2010 mood and the level of patience reserve. Measurement 8 months 8 months 8 months 8 months 6 of public opinion in the region show that the rate RF President 75.0 65.2 0.87 9.3 17.7 1.90 of approval of the power vertical has not reached the RF Prime 79.4 66.7 0.84 9.3 17.2 1.85 Minister pre-crisis level and the level of disapproval is much Vologda Region 57.8 48.7 0.84 19.9 26.9 1.35 higher than the factual figures in 2008 (tab. 2). governor 4 From D. Pete’s speech, the head of the European edition of the journal “The Economist” [Electronic re- source] // Transcript of the meeting between RF Prime Minister V.V. Putin with participants of the VII meeting of the International Discussion Club “Valdai”. – Access mode: http://govERNMENT.RU/DOCS/12039 (the official website of the RF Government). 5 Sources: Eurostat [Electronic resource]. – Access mode: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/ statistics/search_database; 2009 Global R&D Funding Forecast, R&D Magazine, December 2008, Data updated June 2009; Science and Innovation in Crisis: stat. analysis // The journal “Voprosy statistiki” – 2010. – № 8. – P. 5; Eco- nomic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast. – 2009. – № 3(7). – P. 8; Federal State Statistics Service [Electronic resource]. – Access mode: http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/b04_03/Isswww.exe/Stg/d04/183vvp7.htm; Russian Business Paper. – 2010. – № 742(9) [Electronic resource]. – Access mode: http://www.rg.ru/2010/03/23/innovacii.html 6 Institute of Territories’ Socio-Economic Development of RAS has been holding bi-monthly polls on change the living conditions of the Vologda region since 1996. The polls are held in the cities of Vologda, Cherepovetz, and in eight districts of the region. The volume of a sample population is 1500 people. Representativeness of the sample is ensured by the observance of the proportions between the urban and rural populations, the proportions between the inhabitants of settlements of various types, age and sex structure of the adult population of the region. The method of the survey is questionnaire poll by place of residence of respondents. Sampling error does not exceed 3%. The results of the polls are available at www.vscc.ac.ru in the section “Publications” (Public Opinion). 4 3 (11) 2010 Economical and social changes: facts, trends, forecast A number of social indicators also have negative Table 3.