Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Open Access Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 10, 14617–14644, 2013 Hydrology and www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/10/14617/2013/ Earth System doi:10.5194/hessd-10-14617-2013 HESSD © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Sciences Discussions 10, 14617–14644, 2013 This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Trends and future Sciences (HESS). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in HESS if available. challenges of water resources Trends and future challenges of water I. E. Issa et al. resources in the Tigris–Euphrates Rivers basin in Iraq Title Page Abstract Introduction 1,2 1 3 1 I. E. Issa , N. A. Al-Ansari , G. Sherwany , and S. Knutsson Conclusions References 1 Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Luleå University of Tables Figures Technology, Lulea, Sweden 2University of Mosul, Mosul, Iraq 3Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research – KRG, Erbil, Iraq J I Received: 12 November 2013 – Accepted: 13 November 2013 – Published: 3 December 2013 J I Correspondence to: N. A. Al-Ansari ([email protected]) and I. E. Issa ([email protected]) Back Close Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion 14617 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract HESSD Iraq is one of the riparian countries within basins of Tigris–Euphrates Rivers in the Middle East region. The region is currently facing water shortage problems due to the 10, 14617–14644, 2013 increase of the demand and climate changes. In the present study, average monthly 5 water flow measurements for 15 stream flow gaging stations within basins of these Trends and future rivers in Iraq with population growth rate data in some of its part were used to evalu- challenges of water ate the reality of the current situation and future challenges of water availability and resources demand in Iraq. The results showed that Iraq receives annually 70.29 km3 of wa- ter 45.4 and 25.52 km3 from River Tigris and Euphrates respectively. An amount of I. E. Issa et al. 3 10 18.04 km is supplied by its tributaries inside Iraq. The whole amount of water in the Euphrates Rivers comes outside the Iraqi borders. Annual decrease of the water inflow is 0.1335 km3 yr−1 for Tigris and 0.245 km3 yr−1 for Euphrates. This implies the annual Title Page percentage reduction of inflow rates for the two rivers is 0.294 and 0.960 % respec- Abstract Introduction tively. Iraq consumes annually 88.89 % (63.05 km3) of incoming water from the two 15 rivers, where about 60.43 and 39.57 % are from Rivers Tigris and Euphrates respec- Conclusions References tively. Water demand increases annually by 0.896 km3; of which 0.5271 and 0.475 km3 Tables Figures within Tigris and Euphrates basins respectively. The average water demand in 2020 will increase to 42.844 km3 yr−1 for Tigris basin and for Euphrates 29.225 km3 yr−1 (total 72.069 km3 yr−1), while water availability will decrease to 63.46 km3 yr−1. This means J I 3 20 that the overall water shortage will be restricted to 8.61 km . J I Back Close 1 Introduction Full Screen / Esc Scarcity of water resources in the Middle East is one of the most important problems since the last century due to the increase of the demand and climate changes (Naff, Printer-friendly Version 1994; Al-Ansari, 1998; Altinbilek, 2004; Word Bank, 2006; Droogers et al., 2012; Voss Interactive Discussion 25 et al., 2013). Historically, water had played a vital role at the dawn of the first civilization in the life of human kind. The first development of water resources and land goes back 14618 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | to the beginning of 5500 BC in the basin of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers known as the Mesopotamian. The Sumerians and Babylonians used water of Euphrates River to HESSD irrigate their fields and cities by systems of canals (Altinbilek, 2004). 10, 14617–14644, 2013 Iraq started in 1950 planning for the construction of irrigation and flood control sys- 5 tems by the Board of Development created by the Kingdom of Iraq. Primarily; it was to protect Baghdad, the capital, and other major cities from flooding. The first big dam Trends and future (Dokan) was constructed in 1959 on the Lesser Zab River. This was followed by the challenges of water construction of other projects where many dams were constructed for irrigation and resources power generation purposes. In addition, a system was established on the River Eu- I. E. Issa et al. 10 phrates to control its flood. This system includes Ramadi barrage and the Habbaniye Lake. Other systems on the Tigris River included regulators, canal systems, Lake Tharthar project and the Samarra dam were constructed (UNEP, 2001; Iraqi Ministry of Title Page Water Resources, 2013). In the modern history, Iraq until 1970s was considered rich in its water resources due Abstract Introduction 15 to the presence of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. In mid-seventies Syria and Turkey started to build dams on the Euphrates River therefore, its flow decreased due to water Conclusions References impounding of some of the new reservoirs (Al-Ansari and Knutsson, 2011; Al-Ansari, Tables Figures 2013). This fact forced the Iraqi Government to speed up building as much as they can from the planned hydrological projects. For this reason, 1970 to 1990 was the best J I 20 period of the development of Iraq’s water systems. The process stopped in 1990 due to the first Gulf War and UN sanctions. Through the last fifty years period, from 1960 J I to the end of the twentieth century, there was a change in the supply and demand Back Close situation. Table 1 summarizes the hydraulic structures on the Tigris–Euphrates Rivers. In 1977, the Turkish Government started to utilize the water of the Tigris and Eu- Full Screen / Esc 25 phrates Rivers through the South-eastern Anatolia Project (GAP). The project includes 2 22 multipurpose dams and 19 hydraulic power plants which are to irrigate 17 103 km of Printer-friendly Version land with a total storage capacity of 100 km3 which is three times more than the overall capacity of Iraq and Syrian reservoirs (Al-Ansari and Knutsson, 2011; Al-Ansari, 2013). Interactive Discussion Eight of these dams are to be constructed on the River Tigris, only three were built (two 14619 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | in 1997 and one in 1998). The irrigation projects within the GAP will consume about 22.5 km3 of water per year after completion (Altinbilek, 2004; Al-Ansari and Knutsson, HESSD 2011; Al-Ansari, 2013). 10, 14617–14644, 2013 In addition, recent studies indicated that there will be more increase in the water de- 5 mand in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region). In 2050, water demand will reach up to 393 km3 of water per year. This indicates that the water shortage will be Trends and future 193 km3 yr−1 of which 22 % due to climate change and 78 % to changes in population challenges of water growth and economic development factors (Droogers et al., 2012). Furthermore, the resources studies on the Tigris–Euphrates Western Iran region show a total groundwater loss of 3 I. E. Issa et al. 10 nearly 144 km during 2003 to 2009 (Voss et al., 2013). The reduction of flow in the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers in Iraq is considered to be a national crisis and will have severe negative consequences on health, environmental, industrial and economic de- Title Page velopment (Altinbilek, 2004; Al-Ansari and Knutsson, 2011; Voss et al., 2013). In view of the above, it became necessary to know the water resources trends in the Tigris– Abstract Introduction 15 Euphrates rivers basin within Iraq. In the present study the current and future water situation (availability and demand) was evaluated using a new method. The method Conclusions References applied for that purpose was the use of monthly water discharges measurements for Tables Figures 15 stream flow gaging stations on the Tigris–Euphrates Rivers inside Iraq. Population growth data with annual water consumption per capita were used for the southern re- J I 20 gion of Iraq beyond the gaging stations. The water discharge measurements were used in the calculations due to the fact that it takes into consideration the water consumption J I due to different uses, infiltration and evaporation loses as well. Back Close Full Screen / Esc 2 Study area 2.1 Hydrology of Tigris–Euphrates Rivers basins Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion 25 The Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers are the two important and greatest rivers of west- ern Asia. The rivers originate from the same region in Turkey about 30 km from each 14620 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | other. The region is characterized by its cool and humid climate with a rugged land of high mountains and deep gorges. From there, the two rivers flow separately onto HESSD a wide, flat, hot, and poorly drained plain. In their middle path, the twin Rivers diverge 10, 14617–14644, 2013 hundreds of kilometres apart and join together near Qarmat Ali about 160 km above the 5 head of the Gulf, forming the Shatt al-Arab (Fig. 1). The upper basin of the rivers is char- acterized by the rock and mountain gorges of Anatolia and the high plateaux of Syria Trends and future and Iraq.