2020 International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean Regional integration is key to recovery after the crisis Thank you for your interest in this ECLAC publication ECLAC Publications Please register if you would like to receive information on our editorial products and activities. When you register, you may specify your particular areas of interest and you will gain access to our products in other formats. www.cepal.org/en/publications ublicaciones www.cepal.org/apps 2020 International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean Regional integration is key to recovery after the crisis 2 Contents Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Mario Cimoli Deputy Executive Secretary Raúl García-Buchaca Deputy Executive Secretary for Management and Programme Analysis Mario Castillo Chief, Division of International Trade and Integration Sally Shaw Officer in Charge, Documents and Publications Division International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean is an annual report prepared by the Division of International Trade and Integration of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The production of this 2020 edition was overseen by Mario Castillo, Chief of the Division of International Trade and Integration of ECLAC. Keiji Inoue, Senior Economic Affairs Officer with that Division, was responsible for its technical coordination. Assistance was provided in the preparation and drafting of the chapters by José Elías Durán, Sebastián Herreros, Jeannette Lardé, Nanno Mulder, Gabriel Pérez, Ricardo Sánchez and Fabio Weikert, staff members of the Division of International Trade and Integration; Nicole Bidegain and María Lucía Scuro, staff members of the Division for Gender Affairs; and Eliana P. Barleta, Alicia Frohmann and Ximena Olmos, consultants. The authors are grateful for inputs provided by Mariano Alvarez, Anahí Amar, Penny Bamber, Sebastián Castresana, Karina Fernandez-Stark, Marco Antonio Galván, Álvaro Lalanne, Javier Meneses, Andrés Mondaini, Gastón Rigollet, Ira Ronzheimer, Mario Saeteros, Silvana Sánchez Di Doménico, Matías Torchinsky and Dayna Zaclicever. Thanks are also extended to the General Secretariat of the Andean Community, the Secretariat of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), the Centre for Studies on Economic Integration of the Secretariat for Central American Economic Integration (SIECA), the General Secretariat of the Latin American Integration Association (LAIA) and port authorities in the region, which provided valuable statistical information. United Nations publication ISBN: 978-92-1-122059-9 (print) ISBN: 978-92-1-004752-4 (pdf) ISBN: 978-92-1-358302-9 (ePub) Sales No.: E.20.II.G.4 LC/PUB.2020/21-P Distribution: G Explanatory notes: Copyright © United Nations, 2021 - Three dots (...) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. - A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. All rights reserved - A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. - The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise specified. Printed at United Nations, Santiago - A slash (/) between years (e.g. 2013/2014) indicates a 12-month period falling between the two years. S.20-00804 - Individual figures and percentages in tables may not always add up to the corresponding total because of rounding. This publication should be cited as: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2020 (LC/PUB.2020/21-P), Santiago, 2021. Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Documents and Publications Division, [email protected]. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction. International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean • 2020 Contents 3 CONTENTS Introduction................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Summary.................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Chapter I The region’s trade performance is the worst since the global financial crisis ............................................. 25 A. The slump in world trade has been easing since June .................................................................................. 27 B. The pandemic will accelerate the reconfiguration of global trade and value chains .................................... 36 1. The reconfiguration of global value chains ............................................................................................. 37 2. Automation and digitalization.................................................................................................................. 40 3. Increasing conflict in trade relations and the erosion of multilateral governance ................................. 40 4. Worsening tensions between the United States and China ................................................................... 42 C. Repercussions of the pandemic on transport and logistics ........................................................................... 43 1. Repercussions for international maritime trade ...................................................................................... 45 2. Repercussions for port activity in Latin America and the Caribbean ...................................................... 48 3. Repercussions for air passenger transport .............................................................................................. 49 4. Repercussions for air cargo movements ................................................................................................. 50 D. The 2019 slowdown in the region’s external trade intensified with the coming of the pandemic ............... 53 1. The dynamics of goods and services trade by country and integration mechanism .............................. 55 2. The dynamics of sectoral exports ............................................................................................................ 59 3. Regional trade is projected to fall sharply in 2020.................................................................................. 64 E. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................................... 68 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................................... 70 Chapter II Deepening regional integration to boost the recovery ..................................................................................... 73 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................... 75 A. A preliminary assessment of economic integration in the region ................................................................. 75 1. The political economy of integration ....................................................................................................... 75 2. The complex road to convergence ........................................................................................................... 79 B. Trend and composition of intraregional trade ................................................................................................ 87 1. Production integration and trade ............................................................................................................. 87 2. Value chains and production integration ................................................................................................. 94 3. Potential for intraregional trade ............................................................................................................ 104 C. The need for a resilient, efficient and sustainable regional infrastructure ................................................. 106 1. Redesigning the investment strategy .................................................................................................... 106 2. Promoting interoperability ..................................................................................................................... 110 3. Incorporate innovative practices in logistics intelligence ..................................................................... 113 D. Conclusions and recommendations .............................................................................................................. 114 1. Convergence in trade facilitation........................................................................................................... 115 2. Towards a more resilient, efficient and sustainable regional infrastructure ....................................... 115 3. Cooperation on digital issues ................................................................................................................ 116 Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................................