Open Geosci. 2019; 11:664–681 Research Article Tin Lukić, Aco Lukić, Biljana Basarin, Tanja Micić Ponjiger*, Dragana Blagojević, Minučer Mesaroš, Miško Milanović, Milivoj Gavrilov, Dragoslav Pavić, Matija Zorn, Blaž Komac, Ðurđa Miljković, Dušan Sakulski, Snežana Babić-Kekez, Cezar Morar, and Sava Janićević Rainfall erosivity and extreme precipitation in the Pannonian basin https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2019-0053 Received Feb 19, 2019; accepted Aug 27, 2019 1 Introduction Abstract: In order to assess the rainfall erosivity in the Pan- The precipitation is seen as a variable element in time and nonian basin, several parameters which describe distribu- space and it directly affects natural water cycles, but also tion, concentration and variability of precipitation were provides information on the state of the climate [1]. Dur- used, as well as 9 extreme precipitation indices. The pre- ing the last decades, numerous studies focused on precip- cipitation data is obtained from the European Climate As- itation variability all over the world. The results indicated sessment and Dataset project for the period 1961-2014, for a significant decrease in the number of rainy days anda 8 meteorological stations in northern Serbia, 5 in Hungary significant increase in the precipitation intensity in many and 1 in eastern Croatia. The extreme values of precipita- places in the world, such as China [2–4] and America [5]. tion were calculated following the indices developed by There are numerous studies that investigate the trends in the ETCCDI. RclimDex software package was used for in- annual and seasonal precipitation, for larger areas [6–8], dices calculation. Based on statistical analysis and the cal- but also for the entire nations or regions [9–13]. Luković et culated values, the results have been presented with Ge- ographic Information System (GIS) to point out the most vulnerable parts of the Pannonian basin, with regard to 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia; Scientific-Technological Center NIS Naf- pluvial erosion. This study presents the first result of com- tagas d.o.o., Put Šajkaškog odreda 9, Novi Sad, Serbia; Email: bined rainfall erosivity and extreme precipitation indices [email protected] Tin Lukić: University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Depart- for the investigated area. Results of PCI indicate presence ment of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Trg Dositeja of moderate precipitation concentration (mean value 11.6). Obradovića 3, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia; University of Belgrade, Fac- Trend analysis of FI (mean value 22.7) and MFI (mean ulty of Geography, Studentski trg 3/3, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia value 70.2) implies a shift from being largely in the low ero- Aco Lukić, Biljana Basarin, Minučer Mesaroš, Milivoj Gavrilov, sivity class, to being completely in the moderate erosivity Dragoslav Pavić, Ðurđa Miljković, Sava Janićević: University of class in the future, thus indicating an increase in rainfall Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, 21000 Novi Sad, erosivity for most of the investigated area (except in the Serbia northwestern parts). Furthermore, the observed precipita- Dragana Blagojević: University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, tion extremes suggest that both the amount and the inten- Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Trg sity of precipitation are increasing. The knowledge about Dositeja Obradovića 3, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia; BioSense Institute the areas affected by strong soil erosion could lead toin- - Research Institute for Information Technologies in Biosystems, University of Novi Sad, Dr Zorana Ðinđića 1, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia troducing effective measures in order to reduce it. Long Miško Milanović: University of Belgrade, Faculty of Geography, term analysis of rainfall erosivity is a significant step con- Studentski trg 3/3, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia cerning flood prevention, hazard mitigation, ecosystem Matija Zorn, Blaž Komac: Anton Melik geographical institute, services, land use change and agricultural production. Research centre of the Slovenian academy of sciences and arts, Gosposka ulica 13, SI – 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia Keywords: erosion, natural hazard, precipitation, rainfall Dušan Sakulski: University of Novi Sad, BioSense Institute, Zorana erosivity, extreme precipitation indices, Pannonian basin Ðinđića 1, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia Snežana Babić-Kekez: University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department for Chemistry, Biochemistry and Environmental Protec- tion, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia *Corresponding Author: Tanja Micić Ponjiger: University Cezar Morar: Department of Geography, Tourism and Territorial of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, Planning, Faculty of Geography, Tourism and Sport, University of Tourism and Hotel Management, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Oradea, 1 University Street, Oradea 410087, Romania Open Access. © 2019 T. Lukić et al., published by De Gruyter. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License Rainfall erosivity and extreme precipitation in the Pannonian basin Ë 665 al. [14] could not find the significant trends in total annual uated by Malinović-Milićević et al. [53]. They showed that precipitation for the whole territory of Serbia during the pe- there is a pronounced increase in daily precipitation totals riod 1961-2009. However, they found minor tendencies to- as well as in precipitation intensity, especially in the north ward drier conditions on a seasonal scale. The winter sea- and the west of Serbia. Anđelković et al. [54] calculated the son, as well as spring are receiving less rain, while autumn critical number of meteorological stations above which an experienced wetter conditions. For the territory of Vojvo- event is considered as an extreme precipitation event, or dina, Tošić et al. [15] analyzed the precipitation data for a climate extreme of national significance. The respective more than 90 stations during the period 1949-2006. They authors found that this number is 6.21 stations (theoreti- found that the time series of leading Principal Component cally covering more 22.17% of the total territory), meaning of the Vojvodinian precipitation has a decreasing trend that if during one day more than seven stations experience during the winter and spring seasons while the increase event that is above normal, they could be considered as was detected for autumn, summer, and annual precipita- very harmful and have great consequences for the environ- tion. Bartholy and Pongrácz [16] observed the decreased ment. precipitation totals in Hungary and argued that the climate Willems [55] found the presence of increasing trends became slightly drier during 20th century. The changes in numerous features of extreme precipitation in Central in annual precipitation levels for Croatia were analyzed and Western Europe. Additionally, the study argued that based on the data for 22 meteorological stations during the precipitation extremes in Europe display oscillatory the period 1950 to 2010. Pannonian part of eastern Croa- pattern on multidecadal time scales and could be linked tia experienced a slight increase in precipitation while the to Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [56]. other regions recorded stagnation of slight decrease [17]. The changes in precipitation, the presence of extreme The general decline of precipitation totals in Croatia are values affect the soil erosion, and unlike some other natu- probably due to the spring and autumn reduction in the ral factors, such as relief or soil characteristics, is not re- northern part as well as winter and spring decrease along sponsive to human modification. The soil erosion by wa- the coast and in the mountains [18]. ter is very complex phenomenon and it is one of the major Extreme precipitation events, such as droughts [19] threats to soil degradation [57–60]. Land loss as a result of and floods [20], are seen as highly variable and could erosion can lead to a decrease in organic matter and nutri- cause economic, as well as ecological damage, but in the ent content, a change in soil structure, and a decrease in worst cases induce increased mortality. Studies around the water capacity. Loss in productivity can be significant for globe showed that during the last few decades, extreme the lives of people in the given area; the re-fertile layer of precipitation events are becoming more frequent (e.g. [21– soil, which is the most fertile layer, is also most exposed to 24]). The changes in precipitation are very important due pluvial erosive processes [60–62]. In the work of Markanto- to their significance for economic agriculture, energy pro- nis et al. [63], Rawat et al. [64], Berger and Rey [65], Gares duction and drinking water supply. Also, the changes in et al. [66] and Mather [67] it was pointed out that soil ero- precipitation have a major role in natural hazards such as sion is intrinsically entangled with many other natural haz- droughts, floods, landslides and severe soil erosion [25]. ards. Respective authors such as Van Beek [68] and Bosco The changes in precipitation, along with their extreme and Sander [69] pointed out that soil erosion is also part values, occur over a wide range of temporal and spatial of a system of multiple interacting processes operating in scales. Many studies conducted globally [26–29]), region- a complex hierarchy. Therefore, mass movements play an ally [30–32] as well as on local scales [11, 33–36], have important role within soil erosion processes due to their emphasized growing precipitation variability with rises in capacity to remove and expose large parts of slopes in a northern and central Asia, in the eastern parts of North relatively short period. Pradhan et al. [70] stated that high and South America and in northern Europe [37–40]. On the soil erosion rates can also lead to an increase of landslide other hand, some areas such as the Mediterranean display susceptibility due to the reduced capacity of soil to sup- either a decrease in which is not always significant, or the port a good vegetation cover. Landslides may also directly absence of a linear trend (e.g.