V24, N13 Thursday, Nov. 8, 2018 Trump, Kavanaugh effect bury Donnelly Mike Braun pulls off an emphatic upset as voters embrace the president By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – It would be easy to consign Mike Braun’s epic, not-even- close upset of U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly to a Democratic blunder on Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Don- nelly, along with U.S. Sens. Heidi Heitkamp and Claire McCaskill all voted against Kavanaugh and lost emphatically. West Virginia Democrat U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin supported Kavana- Senator-elect Mike Braun addresses the GOP victory rally Election Night as U.S. Sen. ugh and won easily. Todd Young looks on. (HPI Photo by Mark Curry) Until the allegations of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford surfaced in mid-September, probable yea vote on Kavanaugh, which had that occurred, might have left this race on more parochial footing. Donnelly had narrow poll advantages and Democratic voter intensity far outpaced Republicans. He was a plausible and Continued on page 4 Big showdown that wasn’t By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE – The U.S. Senate election in Indi- ana was perceived to be a pivotal showdown for control of that body. It was supposed to be another test of the Republican-lite strategy employed by Evan Bayh to carry “I have supported the Mueller Indiana, a method he con- ceived after watching his father investigation from the beginning fall in an upset to Dan Quayle in 1980. because we need answers about What is hard to remem- Russia’s attempts to influence ber, even for those who re- member that there were two our elections. I believe Mueller’s Bayhs, is that the time span efforts should continue without from 1980 until now is the same amount of time be- political interference.” tween Truman’s transition to Eisenhower and 1980. Things - U.S. Rep. Jim Banks, after change, even in Indiana. A.G. Jeff Sessions resigned Page 2 Since Evan Bayh was crushed a campaign report. In 2014, Marlin by Todd Young in 2016, the question Stutzman won 65.8% of the vote. His lingered: Would Joe Donnelly become opponent Justin Kuhnle raised just the new Evan Bayh? Republicans $101,000. argued that Donnelly was an acciden- This year, Tritch raised tal senator, only winning because of $883,696. Democrats were excited. Richard Mourdock’s mistake in 2012. This was to be a big breakthrough. While I felt Mourdock probably would There was a blue wave coming. Don- Howey Politics Indiana have won, I never felt that Donnelly’s nelly would be a strong top of the win was pure luck or an accident. The ticket (he did run far ahead of Tritch). WWHowey Media, LLC 405 race was already close, and it should Instead, Banks only received 0.3% Massachusetts Ave., Suite not have been. of the vote less than Stutzman did 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 Donnelly had maximized in 2014, when his opponent couldn’t www.howeypolitics.com his opportunity, and thus was ready even mount a campaign. In fact, when a mistake occurred. That’s dif- Banks’s percentage wasn’t much ferent than being an accident. Recent higher against Schrader, a sad case Brian A. Howey, Publisher appointments to fill a statewide slot of a homeless guy without a job who Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington like Dan Coats and Eric Holcomb show had been disowned by the Democrats. Cameron Carter, Editor that you still have to capitalize on a It was among the worst defeats in Joel Weyrauch, Editor surprise oppor- Mary Lou Howey, Editor tunity. But Mark Curry, Daily Wire, photo there is no Jacob Curry, Statehouse doubt that it is Jack E. Howey, Editor a lot easier to Emeritus capitalize on such an oppor- tunity if you are Subscriptions a Republican in HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 Indiana. That’s HPI Weekly, $350 important to HPI Mobile, $5.95 monthly understand, because in a Ray Volpe, Account Manager general election 317.602.3620 there are many email: [email protected] other factors at play beyond the candidates. In Contact HPI the 3rd CD this election, Congressman the district’s history, going all the way [email protected] Jim Banks ran a flawless campaign on back to when the Fort Wayne district Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 top of very successful two-year first was created. Washington: 202.256.5822 term. He defined who he was – a vet- Money matters, but not eran and social conservative who also always. Braun essentially bought a Business Office: 317.602.3620 favored economic conservatism. He Senate nomination with his contribu- stressed his military service and sup- tions to his own campaign. He was © 2018, Howey Politics port in most of his ads, but was bold competing against two well-funded, Indiana. All rights reserved. in stating his pro-life, pro-gun, pro-tax well-known congressmen, so Braun Photocopying, Internet forward- cut views as well. Banks also received had to demonstrate some election an award for his sterling constituent experience (as a state legislator and ing, faxing or reproducing in service. on the school board), clear business any form, whole or part, is a However, his opponent success, and commitment to conser- violation of federal law without Courtney Tritch had looked like a vative values. He also had to show in permission from the publisher. promising candidate. She proved to the debates that he was a plausible be a total flop. To illustrate that point, version of an Indiana Trump. He did. look at the facts: In 2016 Jim Banks But without the money, he would have won 70.1% of the vote. His oppo- been buried. nent Tommy Schrader didn’t even file Congressman Trey Holling- Page 3 sworth certainly didn’t win his initial nomination in 2016 race among the seven winning Republican congressional based on long-term community involvement, local politics, campaigns was Jackie Walorski, who won with 56.3%. The and a campaign ground game. He established his con- next closest was Hollingsworth at 59.6%. The Democrats servative credentials through his ads funded by personal won Lake and Marion counties. As big as they are, you investment. Republicans chose him as their preferred don’t win Indiana with just two of nine districts. Not to advocate, and then rejected any Democrat opposition. He mention the Republican state legislative super-majorities, has now defeated two credible candidates, certainly more another drag on any hope Donnelly had. credible than Tritch, by large margins (though not by as For Donnelly, if he hoped to straddle the middle of much as Banks’s victories). the road successfully, he would have needed to join with Issues do matter. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin in voting for Judge Kava- Greg Pence had both name recognition with naugh. He did not. He likely would not have won anyway, a positive association, and money, though not his own. and the Democrat base vote might have declined further, He didn’t win through creative use of free media, though but Donnelly’s decision certainly undermined his credibility anytime the name “Pence” was aired or written anywhere on abortion to many people and his claim of supporting in the district, no matter which Pence it was, it certainly Trump. While he viewed the Kavanaugh vote a different worked to his advantage. As Donald Trump has proven, way, the fact is that to pro-life supporters it was “the” “brand” marketing, especially when associated with issues most important pro-life issue. It was also the last high-pro- favored by a majority of voters, is a key to winning elec- file vote during the election cycle. Had the Supreme Court tions. Greg Pence proved that both name ID and issues nomination votes been reversed, voting against Kavanaugh matter. early and for Gorsuch during the election cycle, Donnelly In large part, the two-party system has served would likely have gained some votes. But he voted his America well. Sometimes it fails, but no system is perfect. conscience (even if I didn’t agree) knowing the risk. For years, the assumption was that if a Republican was So, issues matter. running for office in a Democrat area, the Republican had Then there was the Trump factor. The president to move to the middle to win – vice versa for a Democrat. crusaded here, joined by Bobby Knight in Southport and That is what Evan Bayh and Joe Donnelly did. Lou Holtz in Fort Wayne. President Obama came in to Donnelly did as good a job portraying that image promote Democrat turnout, which just waved a red flag as anyone humanly could. He stressed this split personality in front of the rest of the state. But who was Donnelly sup- in every way he could, short of wearing a “Make American posed to bring in – Schumer? Pelosi? Bill or Hillary? Great Again” hat on the campaign trail. Had the Democrat Maybe Alec Baldwin? nominee been a card-carrying, charismatic socialist like We Republicans can only hope that the Demo- Bernie Sanders, he might have turned out more Demo- crats will decide that their path to victory is to be openly crats, but lost many of the voters Donnelly added from the liberal, instead of trying to run away from their national middle. It is not clear whether the peak vote of a strong party. These things go in cycles, but if the Democrats want liberal advocate like Mayor Peter Buttigieg might have to try to veer left, perhaps – from a Republican perspec- matched Donnelly’s vote. Donnelly’s 2018 tally (losing by 8 tive – they can extend our dominance even longer.