U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, Inc. New York, New York Telephone (917) 453-6726 • E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.cubatrade.org • Twitter: @CubaCouncil Facebook: www.facebook.com/uscubatradeandeconomiccouncil LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/u-s--cuba-trade-and-economic-council-inc- Seeking to deflect expected Republican Party messaging leading to United States elections in 2021, 2022, and 2024 could solidify further political calculations by the Biden-Harris Administration (2021- ) to maintain distance from Obama-Biden Administration (2009-2017) level re-engagement with the Republic of Cuba. The Democratic Party continues to develop and implement strategies to counter those of Mr. Trump-Governor Pence during the 2016 campaign and the Trump-Pence Administration (2017-2021) during the 2020 campaign. Republican Party Has Successfully Injected Themes Of Communism And Socialism Into Messaging For United States Federal, State, And Local Elections. Headache For Democratic Party Given Nearness Of Dates To United States Elections: • November 2021 Nicaragua Presidential Election & Venezuela Regional/Local Elections • October 2022 Brazil Presidential Election • July 2024 Mexico Presidential Election • October 2024 Cuba And Venezuela Presidential Elections; Brazil Hosts G20 United Nations General Assembly September 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 Where Presidents Of Brazil, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, And President Biden Likely To Participate Brazil Could See Former President Lula Against Current President Bolsonaro Impacting Democrat And Republican Strategies For Mid-Term & Beyond Elections In Florida And Other States • Republican Messaging- Democrats Want Corrupt, Convicted Socialist Friendly With President Diaz-Canel In Cuba, President Maduro In Venezuela, President Ortega In Nicaragua. Democrat Messaging- If They Engage. Republicans Support Corrupt, Climate Change Denier, Reckless Environmentalist, COVID-19 Disaster Manager, Friend Of 45th President Of The United States Senator Marco Rubio (R- Florida) Re-Election In 2022, Governor Ron DeSantis (R-Florida) Re-Election In 2022 & Senator Rick Scott (R- Florida) Re-Election In 2024. Each Have Presidential Aspirations. And… The Unknown Impact Of The 45th President Of The United States The state of Florida remains a primary focus of the Democratic Party and Republican Party as they prepare for elections on Tuesday, 2 November 2021; Tuesday, 8 November 2022; and Tuesday, 5 November 2024. There may be nine or more individuals who seek the 2024 presidential nomination of the Republican Party, with respective campaigns commencing as early as 2022. The Sunshine State’s 14,523,803 voters (as of 21 April 2021): 5,267,864 Democrats; 5,178,159 Republicans; 3,829,504 No Party Affiliation; and 248,276 Minor Party will vote once (2024) for president, twice (2022 and 2024) for United States Senator, and twice (2022 and 2024) for twenty-eight members of the United States House of Representatives. Since 2000, the Republican Party has won four of six presidential elections in the state of Florida: 51.2%-47.9% in 2020; 49.0%-47.8% in 2016; 52.1%-47.1% in 2004; and 48.9%-48.8% in 2000. The Democratic Party won by 50.0%-49.1% in 2012 and 51.0%-48.2% in 2008. U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, Inc. On Tuesday, 8 November 2022, redistricting resulting from the 2020 United States Census will impact elections for the United States Congress (435 seeking two-year terms in the 435-member United States House of Representatives and 34 seeking six-year terms in the 100-member United States Senate). One-third of the seats in the United States Senate are up for election every two years. The state receiving the most attention in 2022 will be Florida which will have gained one seat in the United States House of Representatives. There will be contests for twenty-eight members of the United States House of Representatives, one seat in the United States Senate (where the incumbent Republican may have 2024 presidential aspirations), and for governor (where the incumbent Republican may have 2024 presidential aspirations). The Republican incumbent in the other United States Senate seat whose re-election is in 2024 may also have 2024 presidential aspirations. Although there may be twenty candidates seeking on 2 October 2022 to succeed H.E. Jair Bolsonaro (2018- ), President of the Federative Republic of Brazil (population approximately 221 million), the candidate most likely to cause Florida-based indigestion for the Biden-Harris Administration is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (known as Lula) who was President of Brazil from 2003 to 2010. He was a founding member of the Workers’ Party and sought the presidency three times before the election in 2002. There is no certainty that President Bolsonaro will seek re-election. President Bolsonaro (21 March 1955) of the Alliance for Brazil (Independent) Party will be sixty-seven years of age on election day in 2022. Former President Lula (27 October 1945) of the Workers’ Party (PT) will be seventy- five years of age on election day in 2022. From Wikipedia: “The President and Vice President of Brazil are elected using the two-round system. Citizens may field their candidacies for the Presidency and participate in the general elections, which are held on the first Sunday of October (in this instance, 2 October 2022). If a candidate receives more than 50% of the overall vote, he/she is elected. If the 50% threshold is not met by any candidate, a second round of voting is held on the last Sunday of October (in this instance, 30 October 2022). In the second round, only the two candidates who receive the most votes from the first round may participate. The winner of the second round is elected President of Brazil. The President selects his/her Vice President.” Creating political indigestion for the Biden-Harris Administration are the dynamics of the Brazil election process. The election will be held on Sunday, 2 October 2022. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the overall vote, a second election would be held on Sunday, 30 October 2022. A multiple moment October Surprise. If President Bolsonaro receives enough votes to participate in the run-off, and former President Lula is the opponent, the incumbent will continue to link former President Lula to the Republic of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua; along with the ideologies of communism and socialism; and dictatorship form of government. With the United States elections on Tuesday, 8 November 2022, there may thus be a triple impact by the Brazil elections. The Republican Party and its nominated candidates will likely have two election result opportunities during the month of October 2022, along with a recognition in Brazil of former President Lula’s birthday on 27 October 2022, and likely G20 Summit, to imply philosophical connectivity to former President Lula, the Republic of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, with candidates of the Democratic Party seeking offices in the state of Florida and other states. The debate about ideology will be infused within the campaigns for representation in federal, state, and local offices. The focus by the Republican Party on the election in Brazil will not be because there are so many voters of Brazilian descent in the state of Florida. The focus will be because of the ideological optics that former President U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, Inc. Lula presents in terms of messaging differentiation for the Republican Party. Gaining support of registered voters who are of Brazilian descent is a plus. The goal is seeking to gain support from voters who want changes to the governments of the Republic of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela- and can be convinced that the Republican Party is the means to those ends- Capitalism and Democracy good, Communism and Socialism bad. The headaches for the Democratic Party will have their beginnings in November 2021 with a presidential election in Nicaragua and local and regional elections in Venezuela and continue through October 2022 with the presidential election in Brazil, and then to October/November 2024 with presidential elections in the Republic of Cuba, Mexico, and Venezuela: • On 7 November 2021 voters in Nicaragua will elect their president and national assembly. H.E. Daniel Ortega, President of Nicaragua (2006- ), and his wife, H.E. Rosario Maria Murillo Zambrana, Vice President of Nicaragua since 2017, are expected to be re-elected. • On 21 November 2021, voters in Venezuela will elect candidates for local and regional positions. The current government is expected to prevail. • On 5 October 2022, voters in Brazil will elect its president. If no candidate obtains 50% of the vote, there will be a run-off on 30 October 2022. • On 1 July 2024, voters in Mexico will elect a successor to the current President, H.E. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who is restricted to one term. • On 10 October 2024, voters in the Republic of Cuba will elect their President. H.E. Miguel Diaz-Canel, President of the Republic of Cuba (2019- ), has not confirmed an intention to seek a second five-year term. President Diaz-Canel, who is also First Secretary of the Communist Party of the Republic of Cuba, is not permitted a third presidential term. • Brazil hosts G20 Summit. • H.E. Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela (2013- ), has not confirmed an intention to seek re-election in November 2024 or December 2024- perhaps coinciding with 5 November 2024 election for President of the United States. If, before Tuesday, 5 November 2024, Miguel Diaz-Canel remains President of the Republic of Cuba, Daniel Ortega remains President of Nicaragua, and Nicolas Maduro remains President of Venezuela, expect the presidential nominee and vice-presidential nominee of the Democratic Party and Republican Party to blame one another for permitting and enabling that outcome while advocating they will change the trajectory of those countries… count upon the State of Florida to be the primary focus of the messaging- but also with robust commentary in other states.