The Megapixel Kilowatt-Hour: Making Efficiency Mainstream: The Hypercar Lives: 21st Century Electricity Pricing 5 Top Real Estate Execs Weigh In Meet VW’s XL1 SUMMER 2014 VOL. 7 NO. 2 Boston Scientific’s John Abele on Community Transformation TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMER 2014 /VOL. 7 NO. 2 FEATURE FEATURE MEET THE MEGAPIXEL KILOWATT-HOUR SHOW ME THE Higher-resolution pricing could accelerate and optimize deployment of [EFFICIENCY] MONEY rooftop solar, electric vehicles, and other distributed resources, says a 16 new e-Lab report. 22 COLUMNS & DEPARTMENTS CEO LETTER MY RMI THE ENERGY REVOLUTION JOHN ABELE: IS HERE THE STRATEGIC 04 10 PHILANTHROPIST AMORY’S ANGLE WALK THE WALK ENERGY EFFICIENCY: AN EFFICIENT, SUNNY 06 THE SECRET REVOLUTION 12 FAMILY RETREAT RMI IN BRIEF 5 QUESTIONS NEWS FROM AROUND ON LOW-CARBON 09 THE INSTITUTE 14 ECONOMIES Electricity and buildings images courtesy of Shutterstock. image XL1 copyright Volkswagen of America. Transportation Buildings Industry Electricity General Energy FEATURE FEATURE SHOW ME THE Five real estate executives weigh in on THE HYPERCAR LIVES: MEET VW’S XL1 [EFFICIENCY] MONEY what it will take to unlock $1.4 trillion in RMI followers and auto buffs often ask, ‘What happened to the net energy savings through commercial Hypercar? With VW's XL1, the world now has an answer. building efficiency. 26 INNOVATION BEACON BY THE NUMBERS HOUSTON, WE HAVE SOLAR FINANCING: A SOLUTION OPTIONS FOR 32 39 HOMEOWNERS POWERING PORTUGAL Our Printing and Paper This issue of Solutions Journal is printed on elemental chlorine- 34 free paper. Specifically, it is #2 FSC-certified CPC Matte Book and FSC-certified CPC Matte Cover, Sappi Papers in Minnesota, sourced from SFI-certified pulp. Using certified paper products promotes environmentally appropriate and economically viable management of the world’s forests. SOLAR GETS A CREDIT Staff CHECK Publisher – Rocky Mountain Institute Art Director – Romy Purshouse Editorial Director – Peter Bronski Designer – Chris Rowe 36 Writer/Editor – Laurie Guevara-Stone Designer – Teressa Luedtke Electricity and buildings images courtesy of Shutterstock. image XL1 copyright Volkswagen of America. CEO LETTER by Jules Kortenhorst The Energy Revolution is Here We live in an exciting time. Yes, glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising, and in my new home in the Western United States, earlier snowmelts, longer summers, and hotter temperatures have made wildfires 400 percent more frequent. And yet, there are encouraging signs we are in the midst of an energy revolution that is sure to transform our climate, our economy, and our lives for the better. Three trends in particular offer strong evidence: 1) the rapid and accelerating pace of renewable technology development, as shown by patent filings and product offerings, 2) the continued declining costs for those technologies, which makes them ever more economically competitive, and 3) the way that solutions are all combusting—so to speak—together through combinations that leverage the fuller potential of solutions, such as the combination of solar PV and battery storage. ACCELERATING RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT A 2013 study by MIT and Santa Fe Institute researchers found that between 1970 and 2009 energy-related filings accounted for a growing share of new patents, with renewable energy patents responsible for a dramatic increase in new energy patents overall. In the U.S., renewable energy patents increased from fewer than 200 annually prior to 2000 to more than 1,000 by 2009. Fossil-fuel patents, meanwhile, increased from about 100 per year to 300 over the same period. Since 2004, growth in solar and wind patents has been especially fierce, reaching respective 13 percent and 19 percent annual growth rates that match or exceed those of technologies such as semiconductors and digital communications, according to researchers. And though global investment in clean energy fell for the second straight year, from a record high of $318 billion in 2011 to $254 billion in 2013, renewable-energy costs fell even more, so global capacity additions actually rose over the same two years. Other indicators Image copyright Rocky Mountain Institute. Mountain Rocky copyright Image remain strongly positive: for example, the NEX index— which tracks clean energy companies worldwide— and companies such as SolarCity and Tesla—are grew by 50 percent (far outperforming the general for the first time truly bridging the divide between market), and equity raisings by quoted clean the electricity and transportation sectors. Lithium- energy companies more than doubled, according ion battery developments and price declines to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). For all driven by the automotive sector are crossing over clean-energy new build, BNEF forecasts 37 percent into stationary residential applications; clean solar higher capacity additions in 2015 than in 2013 power is providing an alternative to fossil fuels for based on projects currently in the pipeline. cars that once burned only gasoline or diesel; and vehicle-to-grid technologies are offering firming DECLINING COSTS capacity for variable renewables and ancillary grid services such as frequency regulation. The cost for renewable technologies, meanwhile, is coming down rapidly. The cost of electricity Nowhere do we perhaps see this synergistic from onshore wind facilities, after a decade of effect more than with the combination of rooftop higher prices, is back to near historic lows and the solar and battery storage. RMI’s February 2014 unsubsidized levelized cost of energy for the most Economics of Grid Defection report highlighted cost-effective new wind projects beats all forms this disruptive opportunity resulting from the of generation, fossil-fueled or otherwise, except effectiveness of combining these two technologies. efficiency. Solar PV modules have dropped in price Earlier this summer, Barclays—in part citing RMI’s by about 80 percent since 2008, with total installed analysis—downgraded the entire U.S. electricity cost for systems falling about 40 percent over that sector, noting these burgeoning renewable same period. And the cost of LED lights has fallen technologies’ combined risks for traditional utility by more than 85 percent over the past five years, business models. and battery storage costs have dropped by more A 2013 Department of Energy report analyzing the than 40 percent. growth in solar, wind, electric vehicles, and LED CEO Letter Those cost declines, meanwhile, are spurring lighting stated, “The trends in each sector show greater and greater adoption, driving costs even that the historic shift to a cleaner, more domestic, 5 lower through scale and competition. In the and more secure energy future is not some far decade from 2004 through 2013, global electricity away goal. We are living it, and it is gaining force.” generation from wind and solar PV grew 853 We hope you will join us in this exciting time, to percent to 753 TWh, including 1,200-plus-percent be part of this historic shift, and help accelerate growth in the U.S. Electric vehicle sales are this critical transition. People say that an energy Summer 2014 scaling twice as fast as hybrid cars did at the same revolution is coming. We at RMI say the energy point in their respective histories since market revolution is here. introduction. And corporations are investing heavily in renewables. Global companies like IKEA, Google, Apple, Facebook, Salesforce, and Walmart have committed to 100 percent renewable power. Apple is operating the largest privately owned solar installation in the U.S. at one of its data centers. Facebook is building a wind farm to power one of its data centers with 100 percent BE PART OF THE SOLUTION wind energy. And Walmart is covering rooftop Philanthropic support makes RMI’s work after rooftop of its stores with solar panels. possible. Join us by making a donation today SYNERGISTIC SOLUTIONS to help create a clean, prosperous, and secure energy future. The most exciting thing, though, isn’t the rapid Give an unrestricted gift or target your gift pace of renewable technology development or to support an RMI project that addresses the equally rapid decline in those technologies’ your passion. costs or any other individual factor. It’s the way myriad technologies and trends are converging WWW.RMI.ORG/DONATE to transform global energy use. For example, Image copyright Rocky Mountain Institute. Mountain Rocky copyright Image electric vehicles and their battery technology— AMORY’S ANGLE by Amory Lovins Energy Efficiency: The Secret Revolution Michael Liebreich, chairman of Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s advisory board, notes that the U.S. fracking revolution and the consequent 2004–13 rise in domestic oil output displaced oil imports equivalent to 10 percent of domestic consumption—while two little- noticed demand-side trends, less driving and more- efficient vehicles, saved 18 percent, nearly twice as much. Drilling’s impressive achievements were almost lapped by demand-side shifts. Yet hose saved barrels were nearly invisible because we can’t see energy we don’t use or buy. Similarly, co2scorecard.org showed that in 2012, lower U.S. electric intensity—using less electricity to produce a dollar of real GDP—displaced nearly twice as much domestically burned coal as expanded natural gas use did. In that year, weather-adjusted electric intensity fell by an unprecedented 3.4 percent, saving 145 TWh (billion kilowatt-hours). In other words, saved electricity was six times the same year’s 24-TWh rise in non-hydro renewable generation. Moreover, natural gas additions didn’t deliver some key benefits claimed for them. Price-driven switching of electric generation from coal to gas accounted for only about a tenth of the 2006–11 drop in U.S. carbon emissions. Moreover, much displaced coal was dumped into foreign markets, offsetting 173 percent of domestic carbon savings with overseas emissions. Separately, gas power’s “collateral damage”—displacement of carbon-free generation—plus a conservative estimate of gas leakage meant that U.S.