20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage Accelerating Future Deployment 20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage Accelerating Future Deployment INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 29 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency’s aims include the following objectives: n Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Secure Sustainable Hungary Together Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic © OECD/IEA, 2016 Spain International Energy Agency Sweden 9 rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France Switzerland Turkey www.iea.org United Kingdom Please note that this publication United States is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The European Commission The terms and conditions are also participates in available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ the work of the IEA. © OECD/IEA 2016 20 years of Carbon Capture and Storage Accelerating future deployment Table of contents Executive summary ................................................................................................................. 9 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 13 Page | 3 1. Two decades of progress ............................................................................................. 14 1.1 CCS continues to be essential .............................................................................................. 15 1.2 IPCC Special Report on CCS: A major milestone amidst fluctuating policy support ............ 15 1.3 The global portfolio of CCS projects .................................................................................... 17 1.3.1 The first large-scale CO2 capture projects: 1970s and 1980s ............................ 19 1.3.2 A major milestone: The first dedicated CO2 storage project at Sleipner ........... 20 1.3.3 A CO2-EOR revival in the United States spurs industrial CCS projects ............... 23 1.3.4 The CCS project portfolio continues to expand – for now ................................. 23 1.3.5 Pilot projects are making a significant contribution .......................................... 25 1.3.6 Investment in large-scale CCS projects .............................................................. 26 1.4 Technology developments: CO2 capture, transport, storage and use ................................. 27 1.4.1 Advances in CO2 capture technologies .............................................................. 27 1.4.2 Transport ............................................................................................................ 30 1.4.3 Storing CO2 ......................................................................................................... 32 1.4.4 Large-scale deployment to deliver further cost reductions .............................. 34 1.4.5 CO2 utilisation .................................................................................................... 36 1.5 CCS policy and regulatory frameworks ................................................................................ 37 1.5.1 Climate-based regulation ................................................................................... 38 1.5.2 CCS-targeted policy incentives ........................................................................... 39 1.5.3 Regulating CCS operations: Capture, transport and a special focus on CO2 storage ............................................................................................................... 41 1.6 Expanding global CCS collaboration ..................................................................................... 44 1.6.1 Global collaboration on R&D and policy ............................................................ 44 1.6.2 Regional and bilateral collaboration .................................................................. 45 1.6.3 Future CCS collaboration ................................................................................... 45 1.7 Key lessons from 20 years of CCS experience ...................................................................... 46 1.7.1 Significant progress has been made in spite of limited support ........................ 46 1.7.2 Long-term commitment and stability in policy frameworks is critical .............. 46 1.7.3 Early opportunities for CCS deployment exist, but must be cultivated ............. 47 1.7.4 No CCS without the “S”: CO2 storage must come first ....................................... 47 1.7.5 The role of CCS goes well beyond a “clean coal technology” ............................ 48 1.7.6 Many more projects are needed ....................................................................... 48 1.7.7 Community engagement is essential ................................................................. 48 2 Towards well below 2°C: An increased role for CCS ...................................................... 51 2.1 Achieving 2°C – A key role for CCS ....................................................................................... 51 2.1.1 Examining the CCS contribution to achieving 2°C .............................................. 52 2.1.2 CCS in the power sector ..................................................................................... 53 2.1.3 CCS in industry ................................................................................................... 54 2.1.4 CCS deployment across regions ......................................................................... 55 20 years of Carbon Capture and Storage © OECD/IEA 2016 Accelerating future deployment 2.1.5 The role of negative emissions .......................................................................... 56 2.1.6 Bending the curve: from the 4DS to the 2DS ..................................................... 58 2.2 A low-carbon world without CCS? ....................................................................................... 58 2.2.1 CCS provides a lower-cost transformation in power ......................................... 59 2.2.2 Industry: Few alternatives to CCS for deep emissions reductions ..................... 60 Page | 4 2.3 Meeting the Paris Agreement’s greater ambition: Well below 2°C .................................... 61 3 The next 20 years: Picking up the pace ......................................................................... 67 3.1 Accelerating CCS deployment in pursuit of the Paris Agreement targets ........................... 67 3.1.1 CCS is more important in a post-Paris world ..................................................... 67 3.1.2 CCS is not “on track” for Paris targets, but it is not alone ................................. 68 3.1.3 Putting CCS on track: Finance, CO2 storage and more ....................................... 71 3.2 Retrofitting CCS on coal-fired power – Tackling today’s emissions ..................................... 74 3.2.1 Retrofitting CCS: A key to cutting existing emissions ........................................ 74 3.2.2 Key aspects of CCS retrofitting ........................................................................... 75 3.2.3 Retrofitting China’s coal plants with CCS: A major opportunity ........................ 77 3.2.4 Strategy and policy: How to drive retrofitting forward? ................................... 79 3.3 Activating negative emissions: The role of BECCS ............................................................... 80 3.3.1 BECCS: Critical for achieving well below 2°C? .................................................... 81 3.3.2 BECCS is slowly becoming a reality .................................................................... 82 3.3.3 How large is the negative emissions potential of BECCS? ................................. 83 3.3.4 The key challenges of deploying of BECCS at scale ............................................ 83 3.3.5 Capturing the future potential of BECCS: The need for action today ................ 85 3.3.6 Refocusing attention on BECCS .........................................................................