The economics of low carbon, climate resilient cities : Lima-Callao, Peru Titulo Iturreguí, Patricia - Autor/a; Berrospi, Karinna - Autor/a; Ludena, Carlos E. - Autor/a; Autor(es) Fernandez-Baca, Jaime - Autor/a; Gouldson, Andy - Autor/a; McAnulla, Faye - Autor/a; Sakai, Paola - Autor/a; Sudmant, Andrew - Autor/a; Castro, Sofía - Autor/a; Ramos, Cayo - Autor/a; Lugar Inter-American Development Bank Editorial/Editor British Embassy in Lima 2014 Fecha Colección Inversiones; Adaptación; Migración; Cambio climático; Ciudades; Lima; Perú; Temas Doc. de trabajo / Informes Tipo de documento "http://biblioteca.clacso.edu.ar/Peru/inte-pucp/20170327034423/pdf_692.pdf" URL Reconocimiento-No Comercial-Sin Derivadas CC BY-NC-ND Licencia http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/deed.es Segui buscando en la Red de Bibliotecas Virtuales de CLACSO http://biblioteca.clacso.edu.ar Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales (CLACSO) Conselho Latino-americano de Ciências Sociais (CLACSO) Latin American Council of Social Sciences (CLACSO) www.clacso.edu.ar The Economics of Low Carbon, Climate Resilient Cities Lima-Callao, Peru Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy The Economics of Low Carbon, Climate Resilient Cities Lima-Callao, Peru Today 8% of city-scale GDP leaves the local economy every year through payment of the energy, water and waste bill. This is forecast to grow significantly by 2030. my no co 8% of e e al sc GDP leaks y- it c out of the economy Tomorrow Investing 0.8% of GDP p.a. Leads to... Energy 0.8% of GDP could be profitably reductions in the energy bill equalling 1.6% of GDP invested, every year for ten years, Financial viability to exploit commercially attractive just under 2.5 years for cost effective measures to pay for themselves and just under 4.5 years energy efficiency and low carbon for cost neutral measures to pay for themselves opportunities. Employment more jobs and skills in low carbon goods and services Wider economic benefits energy security, increased competitiveness, extra GDP Wider social benefits better air quality, better health, less noise, better public transport Potential to reduce CO2 emissions 2000 2030 19% CO2 reduction 30% CO2 reduction Through cost- Through cost- effective measures neutral measures 2 The Economics of Low Carbon, Climate Resilient Cities Contents Pg. Forewords 7 6 Mitigation measures for the commercial 50 sector ranked by cost effectiveness Executive Summary 11 7 Mitigation measures for the commercial 51 Chapter 1 19 sector ranked by carbon effectiveness Introduction, Context, Aims and Objectives 8 Mitigation measures for the industry sector 55 Chapter 2. 24 ranked by cost effectiveness Approach to the Analysis 9 Mitigation measures for the industry sector 55 Chapter 3a. 29 ranked by carbon effectiveness The Key Findings for Lima-Callao: Energy and Low Carbon Development 10 Mitigation measures for the transportation 60 sector ranked by cost effectiveness Chapter 3b. 34 The Key Findings for Lima-Callao: 11 Mitigation measures for the transportation 61 Water and Climate Resilient Development sector ranked by carbon effectiveness Chapter 4. 73 12 Mitigation measures for the waste sector 65 Multi-Criteria Analysis ranked by cost effectiveness Chapter 5. 79 13 Mitigation measures for the waste sector 65 Outline Financing and Implementation Plan ranked by carbon effectiveness Chapter 6. 87 14 Water savings by measure, 2015-2030 71 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations 15 Water measures ranked by cost effectiveness 72 Appendices 16 Rankings of mitigation measures for 74 Appendix A 88 a range of wider sustainability issues Participants 17 Top 10 most attractive greenhouse gas 83 Appendix B 92 measures based on ranking by overall cost Data sources, methods and assumptions effectiveness (US$/tCO2), overall carbon effectiveness (tCO2 saved) and sectoral Appendix C 112 multi-criteria evaluation ranking League table of the most cost effective measures in Lima-Callao (NPV in US$/tCO2-e) 18 Top 2 most attractive measures per sector, 84 sorted by overall attractiveness ranking Appendix D 116 League table of the most carbon effective 19 Top 10 most attractive water measures based 85 measures in Lima-Callao (ktCO2-e) on ranking by overall water effectiveness (million m3 saved), overall cost effectiveness Appendix E 120 (US$/m3), and sectoral multi-criteria Low carbon urbanisation evaluation ranking Appendix F 122 A1 Baseline data inputting organisations 88 Ranking of most attractive measures A2 Workshop participants 89 Appendix G 132 Current barriers and proposed changes by sector A3 Steering Committee representatives 91 References & Footnotes 134 B1 Methods of projection for various parts of the 93 The Climate Smart Cities 139 Lima-Callao baseline Programme & Acknowledgements B2 Average GDP share by sector 2001-2030 (%) 95 B3 Key electricity sector variables 96 B4 Assumed performance standards for the two 97 energy efficiency scenarios selected B5 Key assumptions for mitigation measures in 97 Pg. Tables the domestic sector ES1 Cost effective and cost neutral mitigation 14 B6 Key assumptions for mitigation measures in 100 measures identified the commercial sector ES2 Supply side and demand side water mitigation 17 B7 Key variable data used in the transport sector 102 measures identified in the respective supply side and demand side scenarios B8 Data used for different transport modes in the 103 transport sector 1 Lists of the low carbon measures considered 2 B9 Waste share by type 106 2 Electricity sector mitigation options 40 ranked by cost effectiveness B10 Shares of Lima-Callao’s landfills, ownership 106 and prices 3 Electricity sector mitigation options 41 ranked by carbon effectiveness B11 Key assumptions for mitigation measures in 110 the water sector 4 Mitigation measures for the domestic 45 sector ranked by cost effectiveness C League table of the most cost effective 112 measures in Lima-Callao (NPV in US$/ 5 Mitigation measures for the domestic 46 tCO2e) sector ranked by carbon effectiveness Tables (continued) Pg. D League table of the most carbon effective 116 14 Indexed domestic sector energy use, energy bills, 44 measures in Lima-Callao (ktCO2e) and emissions, 2000-2030 (2014 = 100%) E1 Key carbon mitigating Eco-Zone measures with 120 15 Indexed emissions from the domestic sector 44 carbon savings from 2015 - 2030 (KtCO2), cost in two different scenarios, 2014-2030 effectiveness (USD/tCO2e), capital cost (NPV (2014 = 100%) in $M) and payback period (years) 16 Indexed commercial sector energy use, energy 48 E2 Key water Eco-Zone measures with water 121 bills, and emissions, 2000-2030 (2014 = 100%) savings from 2015-2030 (million m3), cost effectiveness (2014 USD/m3), capital cost 17 Indexed emissions from the commercial 49 (NPV in $M) and payback (years) sector in two different scenarios, 2014-2030 (2014 = 100%) F1 Overall measure rankings for carbon savings 122 according to cost effectiveness, carbon 18 Projected emissions under two scenarios, 49 2000-2030 (KtCO ) effectiveness and multi-criteria ranking 2e F2 Overall measure rankings for water savings 128 19 Indexed industry sector energy use, energy bills, 53 according to water saving effectiveness, cost and emissions, 2000-2030 (2014 = 100%) effectiveness and multi-criteria ranking 20 Indexed emissions from the industry sector in 54 G1 Key barriers and proposed changes to low 132 baseline and cost-effective scenarios, 2014-2030 carbon development on a sectoral basis (2014 = 100%) 21 Total expenditure on fuel in the transport 57 sector (US$) 22 Total energy use in the transportation sector, 58 2000-2030 (in millions of MWh) 23 Emissions from the transportation sector by 58 Pg. transport mode, 2000-2030 (KtCO ) Figures 2e ES1 Indexed emissions from Lima-Callao under three 13 24 Emissions from the transportation sector 59 different scenarios, 2000-2030 (2014 = 100%) under three different scenarios, 2000-2030 (2014 = 100%) ES2 Impacts of supply and demand side investments on 17 the worst case (high demand, low supply) scenario 25 Emissions from the waste sector, 2000-2030 63 (KtCO2e) 1 Sectorial shares in Peruvian GHG emission 21 inventory in 2000 and 2009 in % 26 Emissions from the waste sector under three 64 different scenarios, 2000-2030 (2014 = 100%) 2 Indexed energy use – total, per unit of GDP and 29 per capita, 2000-2030 (2014 = 100%) 27 Relative contribution of different measures under 69 the supply-side strategy, 2014-2030 (m3/s) 3 Indexed total energy bill and energy prices, 30 2000 -2030 (2014 = 100%) 28 Relative contribution of different measures under 70 the demand-side strategy, 2014-2030 (m3/s) 4 Indexed total emissions, per unit of GDP, per capita, 30 and per unit of energy, 2000-2030 (2014 = 100%) 29 Clusters that scored highest in each criterion 76 by sector 5 Energy use in Lima-Callao by energy source 31 2000-2030 (Millions of MWh) 30 Conceptual diagram showing how different 80 forms of investment can contribute to emissions 6 Energy Expenditure by sector in Lima-Callao, 31 reductions over time on a city scale 2000-2030 (billions of US$) 31 Investment needs by sector with potential sources 81 7 Emissions by end use in Lima-Callao, 2000-2030 32 of investment types (millions of US$) (KtCO2e) B1 Projected water balance for Lima-Callao, 109 8 Indexed emissions from Lima-Callao under three 33 2000-2030 (m3/s) different scenarios, 2000-2030 (2014 = 100%) 9 Indexed total energy use, per capita and per unit 33 of GDP, 2000-2030 (2014 = 100%) 10 Impacts of supply and demand side 35 investments on the worst