The Effect of Regional Inequalities on Migration: A Comparative Analysis of Israel and Japan Boris A. Portnov* ABSTRACT This article posits three main questions: - Is there a general mechanism through which disparities in regional development affect patterns of cross-district migration? - Which aspects of regional inequalities (climate, employment, housing availability, etc.) have the most profound effect on rates and direction of inter-area migration? - Which planning policies and strategies are conducive to increasing the migration attractiveness of peripheral development regions? In an attempt to answer these questions, the 1985-1995 statistical data for two relatively small and densely populated countries Israel and Japan are used. A general model of the factors affecting cross-district migration is suggested, and analysis-of-variance is used to explain the factors influencing rate of cross-area migration in the two countries. Although these countries differ substantially in respect to population size and local development, they appear to exhibit considerable similarities in general patterns of cross-district migration. Since the late 1980s, the attractiveness of core regions in both countries has tended to decline, while that of peripheral areas appeared to grow. It is * Center for Desert Architecture and Urban Planning, J. Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Sede-Boker Campus, Israel. Published by Blackwell Publishers Ltd., © 1999 IOM 108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, UK, and International Migration Vol. 37 (3) 1999 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA. ISSN 0020-7985 588 Portnov argued that this resemblance of migration patterns is related to a similar balance of employment and housing availability in different geographic areas. INTRODUCTION Uneven distribution of population and economic activity is an intrinsic aspect of regional development world-wide. Examples of countries that have ex- tremely uneven patterns of regional development include: Norway, whose population and industries are heavily skewed towards the Oslo metropolitan region; China, whose population and economic development are predomi- nantly concentrated along the countrys coastal strip; Israel, in which the concentration of economic development and population in the coastal area is also clearly evident; and Japan, whose geographically small Kanto and Kinki districts contain nearly half the countrys population and a large share of all available jobs. Regional disparities in the availability of housing and employment, and provision of services, profoundly affect cross-district migration. Economically advanced regions tend, in general, to attract migrants, while outward migration is an essential attribute of economically lagging, specifically peripheral, areas (Bourne, 1975; Lipshitz, 1997; Portnov and Pearlmutter, 1997; Zheng, 1997). The effect of regional inequalities on migration is not, however, straightforward. Whereas inequalities in regional development are cumulative and persistent (Richardson, 1977; Friedmann and Weaver, 1979; Armstrong and Taylor, 1993), the patterns of interregional migrations are inherently dynamic (Vining, 1982; Balchin, 1990). While many studies have focused on social and economic disparities of regional development (Abe, 1996; Armstrong and Taylor, 1993; Friedmann and Weaver, 1979; Diamond and Spence, 1983; Balchin, 1990), the effect of these inequalities on interregional migration has not been sufficiently studied and understood. Examination of these relationships may, however, provide answers to the following questions: 1. Is there a general mechanism through which disparities in regional development affect patterns of cross-district migration? 2. Which aspects of regional inequalities (climate, employment, housing availability, services, etc.) have the most profound effect on the rates and directions of interregional migration? 3. Which planning policies and strategies are conducive to increasing the migration attractiveness of peripheral development areas? The effect of regional inequalities on migration: a comparative analysis 589 This article attempts to answer these questions by examining recent patterns of cross-district migration in two relatively small and densely populated countries Israel and Japan. It begins with a brief review of factors and forces affecting long-distance migration and regional inequalities, followed by an overview of the general patterns of regional development and migration in Israel and Japan. Empirical models of neutral migration are suggested to determine a specific balance of employment and housing which is conducive to migration attractiveness of an area. FACTORS INFLUENCING MIGRATION In the general literature on migration decision-making, motivations for migration are commonly defined in terms of a push-pull continuum based on Georges (1970) classification of long-distance migration. This classification identifies two types of migrations: (1) those caused by necessity or obligations, and (2) moves stemming from socio-economic and cultural needs. While the first type of migration motives relates mainly to area-of-origin political and/or religion (push) factors, the second type is assumed to be determined by both economic hardships in the area of origin (push factors) and economic oppor- tunities of the area of destination (pull factors). In this framework, an economic motive is generally considered the strongest for migration. As Fischer (1976) argues, a predominant motive for long- distance migrations appears to be economic: migrants generally seek better jobs, higher wages, better schooling, and a materially better life. Vining (1982), and LaLonde and Topel (1997) also stress the key role of this motive in determining patterns of cross-district and international migration. They argue that differences in level of technology and socio-economic development are the major cause of migration between areas. Residential satisfaction motive is another important determinant of migration behaviour. Availability of housing in the area is traditionally considered a key factor affecting rates of inward and outward migrations (Lipshitz, 1997; Portnov and Pearlmutter, 1997). The prime cause of housing migrations is attributable to changes in family composition which occur as a family goes through its life-circle. Housing migration can also stem from dissatisfaction with residential and environmental conditions at the place of origin (De Jong and Fawcett, 1981; Portnov and Pearlmutter, 1997). Other motives commonly cited as influencing cross-area migration include: aspirations for higher social status (Findley, 1977; Ehrlich, Ehrlich and Holdren, 1972; De Jong and Fawcett, 1981); maintain community-based social and economic ties (Uhlenberg, 1973); family and friends affiliation (Fischer, 1976; Moore and Rosenberg, 1995; Lipshitz, 1997; Portnov, 1998); 590 Portnov and attaining life-style preferences (Rapoport, 1977; Portnov and Pearlmutter, 1997; Lipshitz, 1997). ISRAEL AND JAPAN: GENERAL PATTERNS OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT Patterns of urbanization in Israel and recent development policies The majority of urban settlements in Israel are concentrated along the Mediterranean coast or in close proximity to its major metropolitan centres Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa (Figure 1, page 605). The population of these urban centres and their immediate hinterlands (the Tel Aviv, Central, Jerusalem and Haifa districts) exceeds 3.5 million, or nearly 70 per cent of the countrys population (ICBS, 1997). Concentration of Israels population and lack of development in outlying regions create significant problems for national security and for maintaining the future capacity for immigrant absorption. Realizing the extent of these problems, government and planning officials in Israel have favoured at various times the implementation of a policy promoting population dispersal to periph- eral regions of the country (Newman, Gradus and Levinson, 1995). From the early 1950s to late 1960s, this policy was sustained primarily by directing new immigrants to sparsely populated areas (Fialkoff, 1992); since the early 1970s the policy has been gradually replaced by geographically selective aid programmes. These provide public housing to certain categories of newcomers as well as financial incentives to builders and buyers in specified development areas (Lerman and Lerman, 1992). In the mid-1980s, the policy of direct absorption was introduced, under which new immigrants received an amount of money that lasts for a limited period (the basket of absorption) and can decide for themselves where they want to settle (Lipshitz, 1997). Current issues of regional and urban development planning in Japan The core area of Japans industrial development is concentrated in three highly urbanized clusters, viz., Tokyo and Yokohama (the core cities of the Kanto region); Kobe, Osaka, and Kyoto (the core cities of the Kinki region); Nagoya (the core city of the Tokai region); Hiroshima (the core city of the Chugoku region), and Kitakyushu and Fukuoka (the core cities of the Kyushu region) (Figure 2, page 606). Population density within these urban areas exceeds 7,000-12,000 persons per square kilometre (JSB, 1997). One reason why population density is so high is that almost all the flat land for building in Japan is on the eastern coast. The only substantial areas of available The effect of regional inequalities on migration: a comparative analysis 591 flat land are on the northern island of Hokkaido,