UNEP/CMS/ScC17/Inf.9 Climate Change Vulnerability of Migratory Species Species Assessments PRELIMINARY REVIEW A PROJECT REPORT FOR CMS SCIENTIFIC COUNCIL The Zoological Society of London (ZSL) has conducted research for the UNEP Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) into the effects of climate change on species protected under the convention. Report production: Aylin McNamara Contributors: John Atkinson Sonia Khela James Peet Ananya Mukherjee Hannah Froy Rachel Smith Katherine Breach Jonathan Baillie Photo Credits for front page: Tim Wacher For further information please contact: Aylin McNamara, Climate Change Thematic Programme, Zoological Society of London Email: [email protected] 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 2. OVERVIEW OF THREATS ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12 Increasing Temperatures .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 Changes In Precipitation ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Extreme Weather .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 15 Sea Level Rise .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Ocean Acidification ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Ocean Circulation .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 18 Spatial And Temporal Responses .................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 Exacerbation Of Existing Threats .................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Policy Considerations ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 References ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 21 3. OBJECTIVES OF CURRENT STUDY ..........................................................................................................................................................................................22 4. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR A PHASED METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS MIGRATORY SPECIES ..............................................................................................22 PRELIMINARY REVIEW OF CMS APPENDIX I MIGRATORY SPECIES .................................................................................... 23 5. SCOPE OF STUDY .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 23 5.1. Definition of Migratory Species .......................................................................................................................................................................... 23 5.2. Selection of Case Study Species ......................................................................................................................................................................... 24 5.2.1. Potential Priorities for Further Species for Assessment ......................................................................................................................... 35 6. METHODOLOGY: CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS – IN DEPTH REVIEWS .................................................................................... 35 6.1. Methodology Aims ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 35 6.2. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Methodology in Detail .................................................................................................................. 36 6.2.1. Vulnerability of Habitat/s ...........................................................................................................................................................................37 6.2.2. Ecological Flexibility .................................................................................................................................................................................. 38 6.2.3. Species Interactions .................................................................................................................................................................................. 40 6.2.4. Synergistic Threat Processes ..................................................................................................................................................................... 41 6.2.5. Management and Policy Recommendations............................................................................................................................................ 41 6.2.6. Rational for a Qualitative Approach to Species Assessments ................................................................................................................ 42 6.2.7. Guidelines for Grading Species Vulnerability ........................................................................................................................................... 43 6.2.8. Overall Vulnerability Threshold Levels ..................................................................................................................................................... 48 6.2.10. Measures to Improve Confidence in the Results .................................................................................................................................... 50 6.2.11. Benefits of this Approach ......................................................................................................................................................................... 50 6.2.12. Limitations of this Approach .................................................................................................................................................................... 53 6.2.13. Further Streamlining of the Assessment Process ................................................................................................................................... 53 7. METHODOLOGY: INDIVIDUAL SPECIES REPORTS ................................................................................................................................................................ 53 8. RESULTS: CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS – IN DEPTH REVIEWS ...................................................................................................... 54 8.1. Case Study Assessment Overview .................................................................................................................................................................................. 54 8.2. Case Study Vulnerability Gradings .................................................................................................................................................................................. 58 9. RESULTS: INDIVIDUAL SPECIES REPORTS ............................................................................................................................................................................. 61 9.1. Case Study Example Reports .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 62 Addax, Addax nasomaculatus ............................................................................................................................................................... 62 Bowhead Whale, Balaena Mysticetus................................................................................................................................................... 67 West African Manatee, Trichechus senegalensis .................................................................................................................................. 77 Aquatic Warbler, Acrocephalus paludicola