Tatiana A. Trifonova1, Anton A. Martsev2* 1 Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Soil Science; e-mail: [email protected] 2 A.G. and N.G. Stoletov Vladimir State University; e-mail: [email protected] * Corresponding Author NATURAL-FOCAL DISEASES GEOGRAPHY IN THE VLADIMIR REGION (RUSSIA) 26 ABSTRACT. The paper describes a study that monitored the epidemiological situation of a complex of natural-focal diseases in the Vladimir region (Russia), from 1958 to 2012. The morbidity rates of these natural-focal diseases have been differentiated by territory using ArcView 3.1 (GIS software). The activity of natural foci for each zooanthroponosis varied between administrative districts in the region. A schematic map has been compiled; the map reflects the danger of infection caused by natural-focal diseases in the Vladimir region. The paper discusses the role of the anthropogenic factor in natural-ecosystem development: it likely promotes the transit and localization rates of carriers. Correlation and regression analysis of the data showed that climatic factors such as the average temperatures in July and September in the preceding year influence Lyme disease (Lyme borreliosis) patterns. This is likely related to particular stages in the life cycle of Ixodidae ticks. Using multiple linear regression analysis, a mathematical model for the prediction of Lyme borreliosis patterns has been created. KEY WORDS: Vladimir region, epidemiological situation, natural-focal diseases, predicting. INTRODUCTION between animals. People only become infected only when they are within a natural Today the study of patterns in the natural focus [Zuyeva, 2005]. circulation of the infectious agents of natural- focal diseases is becoming increasingly Active human impact on natural ecosystems, relevant, especially in the context of climate along with a decline in conservational, change and anthropogenic territorial epizoological, and epidemiological activity, changes. Aside from that, natural-focal disease promotes the transmission of infectious monitoring is gaining relevance due to active agents of natural-focal diseases and intensifies migration to certain regions, which leads to their epidemiological manifestation. In populations without an appropriate immune terms of registered morbidity rates, natural- system response in various zones with natural focal diseases are relatively insignificant in foci. Similarly, the risk of infection has been the structure of human infectious diseases. rising because of the increased popularity of However, the endurance of natural foci and gardening and outdoor activities [Istomin, their often unpredictable spurts of activity 2006]. increase the morbidity rates for these diseases [Kormilenko, 2010]. Ranges of many wild animals and, in many cases, blood-sucking arthropods are localized Determining factors that influence morbidity in specific territories, where natural foci rates, analyzing territorial distribution, are formed. Natural foci boundaries are zoning by degree of epidemiological risk, control led by endotherm and arthropod (in and defining high-risk groups are the most transmissible infections) ecology. Within these pertinent objectives in research today boundaries, infectious agents are transmitted [Utenkova, 2009]. T.A. Trifonova, A.A. Martsev NATURAL-FOCAL DISEASES IN THE VLADIMIR REGION (RUSSIA) A lack of necessary funding and absence of Oksko-Tsninskiy embankment, composed of specialized entomologists and zoologists limestone, stretches out longitudinally in the in Rospotrebnadzor’s (the Russian Federal eastern part of the region, south of the city Service for Surveillance on Consumer of Kovrov. The northwestern elevated part of Rights Protection) regional branches and the region consists of branches of the Klinsko- of testing systems to gage the presence of Dmitrovsky ridge. These branches take the infectious agents of natural-focal diseases in shape of ridges and flat morainic hills. The a carrier-present areas represent serious and absolute elevation reaches 240 meters. This is GEOGRAPHY sometimes impossible-to-overcome obstacles the most elevated area in the Vladimir region. for objective research. Bearing in mind the The surface is heavily dissected by deeply 27 problems listed above, only morbidity rates embedded riverbeds, ravines, and gulches. can objectively indicate the epidemiological The relative elevations reach 40–60 meters. situation and allow prediction. The Nerlinsko-Klyazminskaya lowlands are located in the northern and northeastern Many authors note the relationship between part of the region, along the left bank of zooanthroponoses disease patterns and the Klyazma River. On its western side, they ecological, socio-economical, and climatic merge with the Balakhninskaya lowland in factors [Antov, 2005, Aminev, 2013, Kolominov, the Nizhny Novgorod region. This land is 100 2012, Utenkova, 2004], however the data can meters above mean sea level and has an be quite contradictory. abundance of wetlands and lakes. The ecological and geographical The Vladimir region is in a temperate characteristics of a region influence the tick and continental climate zone, which is population size, whereas the infection rate characterized by a warm summer, moderately is influenced by climatic factors [Suntsova, cold winter with stable snow cover, and well- 2004]. defined intermediate seasons. The majority of the region is sufficiently humid. Precipitation is A number of authors note that climate indices unevenly spread throughout the area, with the such as precipitation rates, humidity, and lowest precipitations rates in the eastern part. average monthly temperature in the months that precede the epidemic season influence The flora is quite diverse and consists of about natural-focal disease morbidity rates. Based 1200 species. Pines and birches dominate on statistically significant data, attempts have sandy soil and sandy loam, fir trees and been made to create a prognostic model aspens dominate clay soil and clay loam, and [Aminev, 2013, Kolominov, 2012]. coniferous trees with underbrush dominate bog soil. MATERIALS AND METHODS The fauna consists of 62 mammal species, The studies were conducted in the Vladimir 43 fish species, 212 bird species, 10 amphibian region. The territory’s topographic features species, 6 reptile species, and approximately are determined by its location within the East 1500 invertebrate species. The most European Plain which has low elevations and epidemiologically significant species are minor terrain irregularity. The southwestern rodents – bank voles (Myodes glareolus), part of the region is occupied by the tundra voles (Microtus oeconomus), striped Meshchera lowlands – a homogenous and flat field mice (Apodemus agrarius), house mice wetland area that is sometimes interrupted by (Mus musculus), brown rats (Rattus norvegicus); sandy ridges. There are many forest lakes with and Ixodidae ticks – I. ricinus and I. persulgatus. turbid water, large wetlands overgrown with alders and aspens and sandy hillocks with tall The materials from the authors’ own field pines, and juniper bushes and heather. The work on collecting epidemiological data in GEOGRAPHY. ENVIRONMENT. SUSTAINABILITY. 04 (08) 2015 the Vladimir region, as well as statistical data significant predictors were incrementally from 1958 to 2012 were used in this study. determined. A prognostic equation was derived using the R2 value and distribution The data on natural-focal disease morbidity of residuals. STATISTICA software was used to rates were taken from the Vladimir Oblast conduct correlation and regression analysis. Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology, as well as from Rospotrebnadzor’s official reports on ArcView 3.1, GIS software, and Microsoft Paint GEOGRAPHY infectious and parasitic diseases. were used to compile and edit the maps. 28 The degree of natural-focal disease infection RESULTS AND DISCUSSION risk in human population was gaged using a point system. Each natural-focal disease Vladimir region’s natural conditions allow morbidity rate was calculated per 100 000 for the circulation of the infectious agents people. The morbidity rates for each separate of a number of natural-focal diseases, which zooanthroponoses in a particular district were is confirmed by the statistical data gathered summed and, based on the total, each district in this study. The analysis demonstrates was assigned a rank that corresponded to the that territory is endemic to the following degree of risk: 1 (low risk), 2 (moderate risk), natural-focal infections: hemorrhagic or 3 (high risk). fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), Lyme borreliosis (or Lyme disease), leptospirosis In order to evaluate the influence of and tularemia. However, Lyme borreliosis hydrometeorological factors on the natural- has by far the highest morbidity rates focal disease morbidity rates, data on among all infections. the following indices were used: average monthly temperature, number of days The focal activity of different zooanthroponoses with precipitation per month, atmospheric in the region varies. Therefore, the highest pressure, snow cover size, and oxygen levels HFRS morbidity rates (per 100 000 people) in the atmosphere from 1977 to 2012. from 1978 to 2012 were recorded in the Gorokhovetsky, Kameshkovsky, and Yuryev- Initially, factors (predictors) were determined Polsky districts; the highest leptospirosis that were statistically significantly correlated morbidity rates in the same time period with morbidity rates (p m 0,05), using Pearson’s were