FLORIDA COMMISSION ON HURRICANE LOSS PROJECTION METHODOLOGY November 2010 Submission May 17, 2011 Revision Florida Hurricane Model 2011a A Component of the EQECAT North Atlantic Hurricane Model in WORLDCATenterpriseTM / USWIND£ Submitted under the 2009 Standards of the FCHLPM 1 Frankfurt Irvine London Oakland Paris March 28, 2011 Tokyo Warrington Scott Wallace, Vice Chair Wilmington Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology c/o Donna Sirmons Florida State Board of Administration 1801 Hermitage Boulevard, Suite 100 Tallahassee, FL 32308 Dear Mr. Wallace, I am pleased to inform you that EQECAT, Inc. is ready for the Commission’s review and re-certification of the Florida Hurricane Model component of its WORLDCATenterpriseTM / USWIND£ software for use in Florida. As required by the Commission, enclosed are the data and analyses for the General, Meteorological, Vulnerability, Actuarial, Statistical, and Computer Standards, updated to reflect compliance with the Standards set forth in the Commission’s Report of Activities as of November 1, 2009. In addition, the EQECAT Florida Hurricane Model has been reviewed by professionals having credentials and/or experience in the areas of meteorology, engineering, actuarial science, statistics, and computer science, as documented in the signed Expert Certification (Forms G-1 to G-6). We have also completed the Editorial Certification (Form G-7). Note that we are seeking certification for our Florida Hurricane Model, which is contained in both our standalone software USWIND and our client-server software WORLDCATenterprise, as the Florida Hurricane Model is the same in the two platforms. In our submission, for simplicity we refer to the Florida Hurricane loss model common to both platforms as USWIND, and only refer to specific platform or version numbers as relevant. The following changes were made to the model between the previously accepted submission (Florida Hurricane Model 2009) and the current submission (Florida Hurricane Model 2011a): 1. The probabilistic hurricane database was regenerated to be consistent with the National Hurricane Center’s HURDAT data set as of June 7, 2009, and to additionally include the 2009 hurricane season. 2. The model was updated to use current scientifically accepted boundary layer methods and inflow angle to incorporate local friction and transitions between local land use / land cover categories, including sea-to-land transition. 3. The ZIP Code database has been updated to December 2009. 4. Land use and land cover data from the Florida Water Management District 2004-2008 was used to resolve the following land use categories: communication, utility, and transportation. 5. The incorporation of default structure types for North Florida and South Florida. EQECAT is confident that its Florida Hurricane Model is in compliance with the Commission’s standards and is ready to be reviewed by the Professional Team. Sincerely, EQECAT, Inc. David F. Smith Senior Vice President, Technology Development and Consulting 2 Enclosures: 1. 20 bound copies of the EQECAT Submission 2. 20 CDs (labeled ‘FCHLPM – EQECAT 2009’) containing an electronic copy of the EQECAT Submission (FCHLPM_EQECAT2009_28March2011.pdf) and the following files: • 2009FormM1_EQECAT_28March2011.xls • 2009FormM3_EQECAT_28March2011.xls • 2009FormV2_EQECAT_28March2011.xls • 2009FormA1_EQECAT_28March2011.xls • 2009FormA1_EQECAT_28March2011.pdf • 2009FormA3_EQECAT_28March2011.xls • 2009FormA4_EQECAT_28March2011.xls • 2009FormA5_EQECAT_28March2011.xls • 2009FormA6_EQECAT_28March2011.xls • 2009FormA7_EQECAT_28March2011.xls • 2009FormA9_EQECAT_28March2011.xls • 2009FormS6ExpectedLossCost_EQECAT_28March2011.dat • 2009FormS6ExpectedLossCost_EQECAT_28March2011.pdf • 2009FormS6LossCostContour_EQECAT_28March2011.dat • 2009FormS6LossCostContour_EQECAT_28March2011.pdf ■ EQECAT, INC., An ABS Group Company • 475 14th Street, 5th Floor, Suite 550 • Oakland, California 94612-1900 USA • Phone 510.817.3100 • Fax 510.663.1048 3 The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Model Submission Checklist 1. Please indicate by checking below that the following has been included in your submission to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology. Yes No Item X 1. Letter to the Commission X a. Refers to the Certification Forms and states that professionals having credentials and/or experience in the areas of meteorology, engineering, actuarial science, statistics, and computer science have reviewed the model for compliance with the Standards X b. States model is ready to be reviewed by the Professional Team X c. Any caveats to the above statements noted with a complete explanation X 2. Summary statement of compliance with each individual Standard and the data and analyses required in the Disclosures and Forms X 3. General description of any trade secrets the modeling organization intends to present to the Professional Team X 4. Model Identification X 5. 20 Bound Copies (duplexed) X 6. 20 CD ROMs containing: X a. Submission text in PDF format X b. PDF file highlightable and bookmarked by Standard, Form, and section X c. Data file names include abbreviated name of modeling organization, Standards year, and Form name (when applicable) X d. Forms A-1 and S-6 in PDF format X e. Forms M-1, M-3, V-2, A-1, A-3, A-4, A-5, A-6, A-7, and A-9 in Excel format X f. Form S-6 in ASCII format X 7. Table of Contents X 8. Materials consecutively numbered from beginning to end starting with the first page (including cover) using a single numbering system X 9. All tables, graphs, and other non-text items consecutively numbered using whole numbers X 10. All tables, graphs, and other non-text items specifically listed in Table of Contents X 11. All tables, graphs, and other non-text items clearly labeled with abbreviations defined X 12. All column headings shown and repeated at the top of every subsequent page for Forms and tables X 13. Standards, Disclosures, and Forms in italics, modeling organization responses in non- italics X 14. Graphs accompanied by legends and labels for all elements X 15. All units of measurement clearly identified with appropriate units used X 16. Hard copy of all Forms included in submission document except Forms A-1 and S-6 2. Explanation of “No” responses indicated above. (Attach additional pages if needed.) EQECAT Florida Hurricane Model 2011a Mar. 28, 2011 Model Name Modeler Signature Date 4 The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Model Identification Name of Model and Version: EQECAT Florida Hurricane Model 2011a Name of Modeling Organization: EQECAT, INC. Street Address: 475 14th Street, Suite 550 City, State, ZIP Code: Oakland, CA 94612-1900 Mailing Address, if different from above: _______________________________________________________________________ Contact Person: Justin Brolley Phone Number: (510) 817-3100 Fax Number: (510) 663-1048 E-mail Address: [email protected] 5 The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Licenses and Trademarks A number of trademarks and registered trademarks appear in this document. EQECAT, Inc. acknowledges all trademarks and the rights in the trademarks owned by the companies referred to herein. • EQECAT£, USWIND£, USQUAKE£, WORLDCATenterprise™ are trademarks of EQECAT, Inc. • Windows™ is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. • MapInfo£ is a trademark of the MapInfo Corporation / Pitney Bowes Business Insight. MapInfo£ contains data which is sublicensed from MapInfo Corporation / Pitney Bowes Business Insight. MapInfo Corporation / Pitney Bowes Business Insight has obtained this data under license from other third party vendors as noted below. 5-Digit ZIP Code data for the United States, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia. Copyright© 1993-2009 Tele Atlas Maps. All Rights Reserved. 6 The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology TABLE OF CONTENTS 2009 STANDARDS Page GENERAL STANDARDS ......................................................................... 11 G-1 Scope of the Computer Model and Its Implementation ......................................................... 11 G-2 Qualifications of Modeling Organization Personnel and Consultants.................................. 29 G-3 Risk Location .......................................................................................................................... 38 G-4 Independence of Model Components .................................................................................... 40 G-5 Editorial Compliance .............................................................................................................. 41 Form G-1: General Standards Expert Certification ........................................................................... 42 Form G-2: Meteorological Standards Expert Certification ................................................................ 43 Form G-3: Vulnerability Standards Expert Certification ................................................................... 44 Form G-4: Actuarial Standards Expert Certification ......................................................................... 45 Form G-5: Statistical Standards Expert Certification ........................................................................ 46 Form G-6: Computer Standards Expert Certification ........................................................................ 47 Form G-7: Editorial Certification .......................................................................................................