Prepared in cooperation with South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks Hydrologic Characterization for Spring Creek and Hydrologic Budget and Model Scenarios for Sheridan Lake, South Dakota, 1962–2007 Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5059 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Front cover. Photograph of Spring Creek, looking downstream during extremely low flow condition on July 19, 2007, by Ron Koth, South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks. Back cover. Upper left: Photograph of fisherman on Sheridan Lake, courtesy of South Dakota Game, Fish, and Parks. Lower right: Photograph of marina on Sheridan Lake, courtesy of South Dakota Game, Fish, and Parks. Hydrologic Characterization for Spring Creek and Hydrologic Budget and Model Scenarios for Sheridan Lake, South Dakota, 1962–2007 By Daniel G. Driscoll and Parker A. Norton Prepared in cooperation with South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5059 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2009 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. Suggested citation: Driscoll, D.G., and Norton, P.A., 2009, Hydrologic characterization for Spring Creek and hydrologic budget and model scenarios for Sheridan Lake, South Dakota, 1962–2007: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5059, 80 p. iii Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................2 Description of Study Area ............................................................................................................................2 Sheridan Lake and Dam .......................................................................................................................2 Hydrogeology and Climate ..................................................................................................................4 Hydrologic Budget Concepts and Characterization of Hydrologic Data ..............................................5 Hydrologic Budget Concepts ..............................................................................................................5 Availability of Hydrologic Data and Timeframes Considered ........................................................6 Estimation and Characterization of Hydrologic Data ......................................................................8 Streamflow ....................................................................................................................................8 Extrapolation of Streamflow Data ....................................................................................8 Characterization of Historical Streamflow Data for Spring Creek ...........................10 Monthly Flow Conditions ........................................................................................10 Low-Flow Conditions ...............................................................................................10 Precipitation................................................................................................................................12 Evaporation .................................................................................................................................18 Hydrologic Budget for Sheridan Lake ......................................................................................................18 Long-Term Monthly Budget ...............................................................................................................19 Short-Term Daily Budget ...................................................................................................................26 Hydrologic Model and Scenarios for Sheridan Lake .............................................................................29 Modeling Approach and Model Scenarios ....................................................................................29 Model Limitations................................................................................................................................32 Summary........................................................................................................................................................33 References Cited..........................................................................................................................................34 Appendix........................................................................................................................................................37 Figures 1. Map showing study area and locations of hydrologic data sites ........................................3 2. Graph showing annual mean streamflow for selected streamflow- gaging stations ..............................................................................................................................8 3. Boxplots for monthly and annual streamflow for Spring Creek above Sheridan Lake (station 06406920) for the actual period of record (water years 1991–2004) and extrapolated period (water years 1962–2006) ....................12 4. Regression plots of monthly and annual streamflow for Spring Creek near Keystone (downstream station, 06407500) against Spring Creek above Sheridan Lake (upstream station, 06406920), water years 1991–2004 ...................13 5. Regression plot of monthly streamflow difference for Spring Creek stations (06407500 minus 06406920) against flow at upstream station (06406920), water years 1991–2004 ...............................................................................................................14 6. Graphs showing relations between computed reservoir outflow for Sheridan Lake and area-adjusted flow of Spring Creek for station 06407500, 1986–2006 .....................................................................................................................................25 iv 7. Quantile plots showing distribution of monthly values of computed reservoir outflow from Sheridan Lake for pass-through operating system, 1962–2006 .....................................................................................................................................27 8. Graph showing maximum drawdown by year for hypothetical release scenarios, 1962–2006 .................................................................................................................32 Tables 1. Site information for selected hydrologic data sites ................................................................7 2. Annual mean streamflow and rank for selected streamflow-gaging stations ...................9 3. Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r) for monthly and annual flows (water years 1991–2004) at Spring Creek above Sheridan Lake (station 06406920) and flows at three longer term gaging stations ....................................11 4. Selected statistics for actual and extrapolated streamflow for Spring Creek above Sheridan Lake (station 06406920) .....................................................................11 5. Computed differences in monthly and annual streamflow for Spring Creek stations (06407500 minus 06406920), water years 1991–2004 ..............................................15 6. Low-flow statistics for Spring Creek near Keystone (station 06407500), water years 1987–2006 ...............................................................................................................16 7. Comparison of monthly mean and minimum daily flow values for Spring Creek near Keystone (station 06407500), water years 1987–2006 ......................................17 8. Results of linear least-squares regression between monthly pan evaporation at Pactola Dam and estimated monthly precipitation for Sheridan Lake for May and October, 1962–2006 ....................................................................................................18 9. Summary statistics for monthly pan evaporation data at Pactola Dam, 1962–2006 .....................................................................................................................................19 10. Moving average maximum values and ranks for 1- through 7-day intervals for pan evaporation at Pactola Dam, 1962–2006 ...................................................................20 11. Summary of selected hydrologic budget components for Sheridan Lake, 1962–2006 .....................................................................................................................................22 12. Monthly coefficients for effective