Bromsgrove District Employment Land Review 2012 December 2012 Contents 1 Introduction 3 2 Methodology 6 3 Policy Context 15 4 Socio-Economic Context 29 5 Employment Land and Premises – Quantitative Assessment of Supply 31 6 Existing Employment Land & Premises – Qualitative Assessment of Supply 44 7 Overview of Market Demand 87 8 Forecasting Employment Land Requirements – Methodology and Findings 94 9 Findings from the Employer Survey 120 10 Conclusions and Recommendations 150 Bromsgrove District Employment Land Review Executive Summary Drivers Jonas Deloitte and WM Enterprise were initially commissioned by Bromsgrove District Council to prepare an Employment Land Review of the District as part of the Council’s Development Plan evidence base. This Study was published in 2009 and has been updated in mid 2012, in line with progress on the Council’s emerging Bromsgrove District Plan. The study and this update has been carried out in accordance with the following three stage process as advocated in good practice advice issued on behalf of the CLG: Stage 1: Taking stock of the existing employment land situation; Stage 2: Creating a picture of future requirements; and Stage 3: Identifying a new portfolio of sites. For the purposes of this review, the District has been divided into 4 sub-areas, as illustrated on the plan below: 1 Bromsgrove District Employment Land Review Stage 1: The Existing Employment Land Situation Gross employment land supply within Bromsgrove District equates to just over 47 hectares. This figure includes Areas of Development Restraint (several of which now have planning permission for development or are at the pre-application stage) and existing commitments at Ravensbank Business Park (which are intended to meet the employment development needs of Redditch) and Longbridge (which is related to the Birmingham area). Excluding the contribution made by these sources, available supply serving Bromsgrove District as a whole is approximately 22 hectares. Only 1.8 hectares of the District’s supply is made up of allocations without planning permission, located wholly within the Saxon and Harris Business Parks in the Rural East sub area. The vast majority of net supply is made up of land within Local Plan allocations with planning permission. Stage 2: Future Requirements Based on the outputs of a small area forecasting model, a minimum of 19.9 hectares of land above that in current occupation is required in the District to accommodate the forecast growth in employment floorspace in the area up to 2030. This forecast requirement should be viewed as an absolute minimum in terms of the amount of land needed, as in reality, a much greater amount of land is required to allow for choice and churn in the market place. For example, projecting forward past employment completion rates in Bromsgrove would suggest a significantly higher land requirement than the minima generated by the forecast. In terms of market demand, Bromsgrove, naturally as the largest settlement in the study area, is where the majority of demand is concentrated. Access to the town is good, being located close to the M5 and M42 motorways, and in addition affords easy access to Birmingham city centre for motorists via the Hagley Road, or by rail. Generally, developers are unwilling to build speculatively in the current climate. There is a greater market for smaller premises compared to larger premises. Stage 3: Identifying a New Portfolio of Sites Overall, there is reasonable quantity of existing employment land supply within the District as a whole when compared against forecast minimum requirements using small area forecasting techniques although choice will likely be limited, particularly for warehousing. This being said, virtually all of this supply is either committed or under construction [with only 2 hectares of vacant allocated employment land not having planning permission and located only at one site in the District (Saxon and Harris Business Park)]. Supply across the District is not evenly distributed and there are particularly limited levels of available land supply in the Rural West and North sub areas. Supply in certain central urban areas, including Bromsgrove, would also benefit from increased provision, including for offices. Based on these key conclusions, a number of recommendations are set out which relate to the following main issues: With the exception of a very limited number of sites ranked as ‘moderate’ through this study, we would not recommend releasing or de-allocating existing Local Plan employment allocations sites (and main commitments) ranked as Best, Good or Moderate at this time through the Development Plan process. There is scope however to release the poorest performing sites from the employment portfolio (i.e. those ranked as ‘Poor’); Consideration should be given to enhancing the supply of land for all sectors generally and also in enhancing spatial deficiencies in supply within certain parts of the District; and Although this study focuses on the forecast requirements for the District, if there is a requirement to continue to assist in meeting the development needs of Redditch then supply will need to be further enhanced on land which is located in close proximity to the urban area of Redditch. 2 Bromsgrove District Employment Land Review 1 Introduction 1.1 Drivers Jonas Deloitte and WM Enterprise were initially commissioned in March 2008 to prepare an Employment Land Review of Bromsgrove District, in accordance with good practice guidance and relevant planning policy, on behalf of Bromsgrove District Council. The Study was published in 2009. In order to ensure robust and up to date evidence on employment land issues to inform the emerging Bromsgrove District Plan, an update of the study was commissioned in March 2012. 1.2 This report provides an update of the 2009 employment land study, with particular regard to the following considerations: Planning Policy Context 1.3 Consideration of changes to national planning policy, notably publication of the National Planning Policy Framework in March 2012; 1.4 Establishment of the Greater Birmingham and Solihull Local Enterprise Partnership (GBSLEP) and the Worcestershire Local Enterprise Partnership (WLEP), both of which Bromsgrove District Council is part of; 1.5 Reconsideration of the study findings in light of the Government’s intention to abolish Regional Spatial Strategies; and 1.6 Consideration of local planning policy and evidence base documents published / updated since the 2009 Study including the draft Bromsgrove Core Strategy 2 (2011), the draft Bromsgrove Town Centre Area Action Plan (2011) and, the Worcestershire Strategic Housing Market Assessment (February 2012). Review of Socio-Economic Information 1.7 Provision of economic and socio-economic data extracted from a range of information sources to provide a picture of the make-up and relative performance of the local economy. Quantitative Assessment of Supply 1.8 A review and update of the quantitative assessment figures in respect of vacancy rates, completion rates and any significant changes in employment land supply to that previously reported. 3 Bromsgrove District Employment Land Review Qualitative Assessment of Supply 1.9 The completion of the qualitative assessment of a number of additional sites promoted through the Core Strategy process and sites defined in the draft Bromsgrove Town Centre Area Action Plan; 1.10 Provision of further / amended qualitative assessments of certain sites included in the 2009 study to, amongst other things, consider comments made during consultation on the draft Core Strategy; and 1.11 A high level review of all existing site assessments and associated scoring / ranking to take account of any significant changes in circumstances, such as changes in site availability and constraints. Assessment of Market Demand and Need 1.12 Update of commentary on local market conditions through the review of updated vacancy and transactions information, the completion rates of new employment development and discussions with locally active commercial agents. Economic Forecasting 1.13 Update and extension to 2030 of employment land forecasts, using updated Cambridge Econometrics base forecasts to allow recessionary impacts to be analysed for key employment uses / sectors; and 1.14 Provide a high level review of economic forecasts prepared for the sub-region by GVA as part of the Worcestershire Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) . Recommendations and Conclusions 1.15 Update of relevant commentary within all chapters and associated conclusions and recommendations to reflect the updated assessment and to respond, where appropriate, to comments made to consultation on the Core Strategy; and 1.16 Additional commentary on the appropriateness and realism of the economic vision of the draft Core Strategy as relates to the scope of this study. Purpose and Scope of the Study 1.17 Bromsgrove District Council requires a comprehensive study and report on employment land requirements for the period up to 2030. There are three main aims of the study: To provide a robust evidence base to input into the new emerging Bromsgrove District Plan (which will subsume the Core Strategy) to inform the strategic approach and decision making processes regarding the supply of existing and future employment land provision and in terms of developing future policies and proposals for employment; 4 Bromsgrove District Employment Land Review To provide evidence to help safeguard the future of employment land