NOTTINGHAM CORE HMA HOUSING MARKET NEEDS ASSESSMENT UPDATE 2009 B.Line Housing Information Ltd http://www.blinehousing.info/ [email protected] telephone : 0116 270 6441 Table of Contents 1) Introduction........................................................................................................................1 Figure 1:1 Average annual build rate targets as set out in the East Midlands RSS8 2006 and 2009 .........................................................................................................................................................1 Figure 1:2 Bramley affordability model – summary..........................................................................2 2) Key Figures and Comparisons ..........................................................................................5 Figure 2:1 Key Variable settings for LA and submarket model outputs............................................5 Figure 2:2 Local Authority Level Needs Estimates...........................................................................6 2.2. Comparisons with results from 2006..................................................................................6 2.2.2. Lower Quartile Prices ........................................................................................................6 Figure 2:3 Change in lower quartile price 2006/2009 (LA Level) .....................................................6 2.2.3. Affordability........................................................................................................................6 Figure 2:4 Percentage of emerging households unable to afford market purchase.........................7 Figure 2:5 Split of main income bands.............................................................................................7 2.2.4. Gross Need, Supply and Net Need....................................................................................7 Figure 2:6 Need and Supply ............................................................................................................7 3) House Prices .....................................................................................................................8 Figure 3:1 Property Sales Count (June 2007 to March 2009)..........................................................8 Figure 3:2 Change in count of sales, June 2007 to March 2009......................................................9 Figure 3:3 Count of sales – month on month comparison (June 2007 – March 2009).....................9 Figure 3:4 Average House Prices (Comparison) Nottingham Core LAs ........................................10 3.1.2. Lower Quartile Price Fluctuations by Bed Count and Property Type...............................11 Figure 3:5 Lower Quartile price by bed count and type - Broxtowe Local Authority.......................11 Figure 3:6 Lower Quartile price by bed count and type - Erewash Local Authority........................12 Figure 3:7 Lower Quartile price by bed count and type - Gedling Local Authority..........................13 Figure 3:8 Lower Quartile price by bed count and type - Nottingham Unitary Authority.................14 Figure 3:9 Lower Quartile price by bed count and type - Rushcliffe Local Authority ......................15 Figure 3:10 Comparison of lower quartile prices by property type and size – all Local Authorities 15 Figure 3:11 Comparison of property prices (March 2009) by type and size, LA level ....................16 Figure 3:12 Local authority level number of sales by property type and size.................................16 4) Supply..............................................................................................................................17 Figure 4:1 Local authority level annual supply ...............................................................................17 5) Households in need.........................................................................................................17 5.1. Backlog Need ..................................................................................................................17 Figure 5:1 HSSA data (2005 – 2008).............................................................................................17 Figure 5:2 Comparison of average and trend figures from HSSA data (2009 projection) ..............18 Figure 5:3 Waiting List Growth (HSSA data), 2009 value takes trend figure..................................18 5.2. Emerging Households .....................................................................................................18 Figure 5:4 Emerging Households by local authority.......................................................................18 5.3. Owner Occupier Need .....................................................................................................19 Figure 5:5 Estimated levels of owner occupation by local authority...............................................19 5.4. Migrations ........................................................................................................................20 Figure 5:6 Migration statistics by local authority.............................................................................20 6) Key Variables ..................................................................................................................21 Figure 6:1 Scenarios changing 3 key variables and results ...........................................................21 6.2. Rent and Purchase Price Differentials.............................................................................21 Figure 6:2 Impact of Private Rental Sector monthly cost variations on affordability percentages by LA ..................................................................................................................................................22 Figure 6:3 Comparison of need figures - lower quartile purchase and rent (Key Variables set as above)............................................................................................................................................23 7) Results by Local Authority and Submarket Level Outputs...............................................24 7.1.2. Deriving submarket level needs figures...........................................................................24 Figure 7:1 Discussion of sources and methodology for model outputs ..........................................24 7.2. Broxtowe..........................................................................................................................27 Figure 7:2 Model outputs at Local Authority level - Broxtowe ........................................................27 7.2.3. Submarket Outputs - Broxtowe........................................................................................28 Figure 7:3 Broxtowe submarkets ...................................................................................................29 Figure 7:4 Key Outputs by submarket (Broxtowe), including cross-border submarkets.................29 7.3. Erewash...........................................................................................................................30 Figure 7:5 Model outputs at Local Authority level - Erewash .........................................................30 7.3.4. Submarket Outputs – Erewash........................................................................................31 Figure 7:6 Erewash submarkets ....................................................................................................31 Figure 7:7 Key Outputs by submarket (Erewash), including cross-border submarkets..................31 7.4. Gedling ............................................................................................................................32 Figure 7:8 Model outputs at Local Authority level - Gedling...........................................................32 7.4.5. Submarket Outputs - Gedling ..........................................................................................33 Figure 7:9 Gedling submarkets......................................................................................................33 Figure 7:10 Key Outputs by submarket (Gedling) ..........................................................................33 7.5. Nottingham ......................................................................................................................34 Figure 7:11 Model outputs at Local Authority level - Nottingham...................................................34 7.5.6. Submarket Outputs - Nottingham ....................................................................................35 Figure 7:12 Nottingham City Bigger Submarkets...........................................................................35 Figure 7:13 Key Outputs by submarket (Nottingham City Council Bigger Submarkets).................35 Figure 7:14 Nottingham City Smaller Submarkets .........................................................................37 Figure 7:15 Key Outputs by submarket (Nottingham City).............................................................37 7.6. Rushcliffe.........................................................................................................................38 Figure 7:16 Model outputs at Local Authority level - Rushcliffe......................................................38 7.6.7. Submarket Outputs - Rushcliffe.......................................................................................40 Figure 7:17 Rushcliffe Submarkets................................................................................................40