Climate Action and Adaptation Plan june 2012 blank page Table of Contents List of Abbreviations .................................................................................................................iii Executive Summary...................................................................................................................iv 1. Introduction to the Plan........................................................................................................1 1.1. Plan Objectives............................................................................................................. 1 1.2. How to Use this Plan .................................................................................................... 2 1.3. The Climate Action and Adaptation Plan in Context..................................................... 3 1.4. Organization of the Plan ............................................................................................... 6 2. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions...............................................................................7 2.1. Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Forecast..................................................................... 7 2.2. Metro’s Impact on Regional Emissions....................................................................... 11 2.3. Reducing Emissions from Metro’s Operations............................................................ 13 3. Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change ......................................................................37 3.1. Background/Study Design .......................................................................................... 37 3.2. Characterizing Critical Services and Assets ............................................................... 37 3.3. Identifying Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on Metro’s Assets and Services ................................................................................................... 42 3.4. Assessing Vulnerability and Presenting Potential Adaptation Options ....................... 56 4. Next Steps............................................................................................................................61 4.1. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions....................................................................... 61 4.2. Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change................................................................. 61 5. Appendices..........................................................................................................................63 5.1. Inventory and Forecast Detailed Methodologies ........................................................ 63 5.2. Measure Screening Memorandum ............................................................................. 68 5.3. Measures—Detailed Analysis Methodologies ............................................................ 73 5.4. Asset and Service Inventory Analysis Background Data............................................ 77 6. References...........................................................................................................................89 ICF International i Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority 12-014 © 2012 June 2012 Climate Action and Adaptation Plan Table of Contents List of Figures Figure 1: Relationship of the Climate Action and Adaptation Plan to Other Sustainability Initiatives .............................5 Figure 2: Metro Internal Emissions by Source in 2010 (%) ............................................................................................8 Figure 3: Comparison of Metro's Internal Emissions to External Emissions from Los Angeles County Resident Drivers in 2010................................................................................................................................9 Figure 4: Metro Internal Emissions by Source in 2020 (%) ..........................................................................................11 Figure 5: GHG Emissions Reduced in 2020 by Strategy Packages.............................................................................25 Figure 6: Average Seasonal Temperature Observed in Pasadena (in °F). DJF (December, January, and February); MAM (March, April, May); JJA (June July, August); SON (September, October, November) ...................................................................................................................................................44 Figure 7: Frequency (in Percentage of Days During a Season) When the 5th Percentile Value (Solid Bars) and the 1st Percentile Values (White, Bordered Bars) for Warm Daily Temperature Are Exceeded ............44 Figure 8: Average total Seasonal Rainfall (in Inches). .................................................................................................46 Figure 9: Frequency (in Percentage of Days During a Season) when the 5th Percentile Value (Solid Bars) and the 1st Percentile Values (White, Bordered Bars) for daily Precipitation Are Exceeded ........................46 Figure 10: Seasonal temperature for the Mid-20th Century Simulated by Six Climate Models and Downscaled for the Los Angeles County Area .................................................................................................................48 Figure 11: Seasonal Precipitation for the Mid-20th Century Simulated by Six Climate Models and Downscaled for the Los Angeles County Area.............................................................................................49 Figure 12: Changes in Late-20th Century and 21st Century Average Seasonal Winter (top, DJF) and Summer (bottom, JJA) Temperature, in Degrees Fahrenheit ......................................................................49 Figure 13: Changes in Late-20th Century and 21st Century Winter (top, DJF), Spring (middle, MAM), and Fall (bottom, SON) Precipitation, in Percent ................................................................................................51 Figure 14: Anecdotal thresholds for heat-related impacts to Metro Bus and Rail Operations ......................................52 Figure 15: Map of the 100-year Flood Inundation Area in 2000 and in 2100 Assuming a 1.4m Sea Level Rise..........55 List of Tables Table ES1: Cumulative Reductions and Cost Effectiveness of Strategies to Reduce GHG Emissions ......................... v Table ES2: GHG Reductions and Cost Effectiveness of Packages of GHG Reduction Strategies............................... vi Table ES3: Summary of Vulnerability Analysis and Potential Adaptation Options .......................................................viii Table 1: Metro Internal Emissions by Source in 2010....................................................................................................8 Table 2: GHG Emissions Impact by Strategy...............................................................................................................19 Table 3: Cost Impacts by Strategy ...............................................................................................................................20 Table 4: Lifecycle Costs and Payback Period by Strategy ...........................................................................................20 Table 5: Cost Effectiveness by Strategy (2012-2020)..................................................................................................22 Table 6: Strategy Packages .........................................................................................................................................23 Table 7: Results of Strategy Packages ........................................................................................................................24 Table 8: Critical Services and Asset Types..................................................................................................................38 Table 9: Critical Facilities or Locations.........................................................................................................................40 Table 10: Criticality Index Sub-Scores .........................................................................................................................41 Table 11: Future Services and Assets .........................................................................................................................42 Table 12: Impact-Analogs for Heavy Precipitation Impacts on Regional Transportation..............................................53 Table 13: Summary of Vulnerability Analysis for Extreme Heat Events .......................................................................57 Table 14: Summary of Vulnerability Analysis for Extreme Precipitation Events ...........................................................58 Table 15: Summary of Vulnerability Analysis and Potential Adaptation Options..........................................................60 Table 16: Criticality Information for Passenger Stations...............................................................................................77 Table 17: Non-Passenger Facilities .............................................................................................................................83 Table 18: Connectivity Information...............................................................................................................................84 ICF International ii Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority 12-014 © 2012 June 2012 List of Abbreviations